The UK and the EU are on the verge of an agreement to revise the Northern Ireland protocol, the part of the Brexit deal that sets out trade rules for the region. Rishi Sunak will hold face-to-face talks in the UK with the European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, on Monday as they aim to finalise a deal. What are the issues with the NI protocol? Under the terms of the protocol agreed by Boris Johnson, Northern Ireland is inside the EU’s single market for goods. That means an open trade border on the island of Ireland but in effect means that a sea border has been created instead. Products arriving into Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK are subject to checks and controls. The deal has led to political instability in Northern Ireland after the Democratic Unionist party (DUP) withdrew from the Stormont assembly in protest at the checks on arriving goods. It also disagreed with the continuing role of the European court of justice (ECJ) in the region. Loyalist paramilitaries have expressed opposition to the protocol and warned that it could destabilise peace in the region. What were the rules on goods moving across the land border before and after Brexit? Before Brexit, it was easy to transport goods across this border because both sides followed the same EU rules. After the UK left, special trading arrangements were needed because Northern Ireland has a land border with the Republic of Ireland, which remains part of the EU. The EU has strict food rules and requires border checks when certain goods such as milk and eggs arrive from non-EU countries. Why can’t the UK and EU return to checks on the land border? It was feared that cameras or border posts could lead to increased republican activity and a breakdown of the political consensus. Republican paramilitary groups frequently attacked border posts during the Troubles. What do we expect to see in the new agreement? Under the current agreement, goods are checked as they arrive in Northern Ireland and can then be moved to Ireland. The UK wants goods entering Northern Ireland to be split into two different lanes – green for those going just to Northern Ireland and red for those destined for Ireland. A key issue for business is the extent to which the green lane will reduce the need for customs paperwork. There is also the question of whether the UK government will continue funding the trader support service, which helps with the administration needed. What have been the sticking points?
There have been several. Will companies have to be registered as trusted traders to join the green lane? Which companies will qualify for trusted trader status? Who will register as trusted traders – the importer, the haulier or the exporter? There is also an ongoing dispute over online shopping: will Northern Irish customers be required in future to sign a customs declaration if they buy goods from outlets in Great Britain? And the EU has asked that the ECJ settle any future disputes, while the UK wants it to have little involvement, reports have claimed. What will happen on Monday? Sunak is scheduled to meet Von der Leyen in the afternoon for final talks, followed by a cabinet meeting where the prime minister, his foreign secretary, James Cleverly, and Chris Heaton-Harris, the Northern Ireland secretary, will update colleagues on the talks. If all goes well, Sunak and Von der Leyen will appear for a joint press conference to announce a deal in the late afternoon. Will any deal be the end of rows over the protocol? No. Sunak’s problems may be just beginning, depending on who backs the deal. Will the DUP, the largest unionist party in Northern Ireland, give its blessing? Will the European Research Group (ERG), the group of Conservative MPs who brought down Theresa May, sign it off? Will Johnson, who has already issued warnings about the deal, signal his support?