The 1940s and 50s are often seen as a golden era for democracy, when Britain and its allies triumphed against fascism before the postwar consensus powered the formation of the welfare state and National Health Service. In those days we had a nation broadly content with itself and its values, and almost completely unquestioning of its system of government. Even in those patriotic times there was, however, a good deal of cynicism about the motivations of politicians among a significant proportion of the population. A landmark Gallup poll in 1944 found that 35% of voters believed politicians were merely “out for themselves”. But the same poll found slightly more – 36% – believed their political leaders were largely selfless people, focused primarily on advancing the interests of their country, while some 22% said they put their party first. Ever since then – as we show today – there has been a gradual decline in trust in politicians across the decades, to the point where today it is close to non-existent, raising profound questions about the health and future workability of our entire democratic system which must rely on mutual respect between elector and elected to work.
New polling for the IPPR thinktank, which asked the same question at the end of last month as Gallup posed 77 years ago, shows that today 63% of people now believe their politicians are mainly in it for themselves. And most strikingly of all, perhaps, only 5% (one in 20) believe they are in it for their country’s best interests. The recent Owen Paterson scandal and subsequent sleaze stories about politicians seem to have turbocharged a pre-existing decline in trust to new levels under Prime Minister Boris Johnson to a point where lack of faith in those who we elect is the norm. When IPPR first asked YouGov to poll again on the question “who are they in it for?” in May this year, 57% said politicians were in it for themselves, while 9% believed they were in it for their country. The leap in distrust since May and the Paterson fiasco is regarded as statistically very significant. “Citizens have always been cynical about their politicians,” says Professor Will Jennings of Southampton University, joint author of a new IPPR report which draws on the polling, entitled Trust Issues: Dealing with Distrust in Politics. The report is the first in a series from IPPR looking at this phenomenon, its causes and how to stave off a potential resulting crisis for UK democracy. “But the latest data we have demonstrates just how far trust in politicians and their motivations has fallen. Even in recent months it is noticeable how far it has continued to fall.” The report suggests the phenomenon, in a post-Brexit UK struggling to re-establish new economic and diplomatic alliances, as well as deal with the Covid-19 pandemic, has huge implications for society and the way we are governed.
“If low levels of trust reflected a healthy scepticism on the part of citizens that fuelled democratic accountability, there may not be particular cause for concern,” it says. “What is cause for concern, however, is if scepticism turns into cynicism, or distrust, and generalised perceptions of politicians are negative enough to drive disengagement with democracy or actions and attitudes that are corrosive against its foundations.” Brexit and Covid have themselves influenced and shifted levels of trust in politicians and the democratic system in profound but different ways, the reports shows. Using data from the British Election Study, the academics and researchers behind the report find that the type of voters associated with the Remain side tended to be more trusting in their politics and politicians before Brexit, and those associated with Leave much less so. But by the time the UK had finally left the EU, this had reversed.
This suggests that Remainers felt let down by the system which delivered Brexit, while many Leavers felt it showed their voices had been heard, though at times they feared Brexit would not be delivered as promised. “There is robust evidence to suggest that, in the period leading up to the EU referendum of 2016, and in its aftermath, Brexit identities conditioned trust in politics and politicians,” the report says. “Looking back to 2014, panel data from the BES shows that would-be Remain voters were around 10 percentage points more trusting than would-be Leave voters – but, by June 2020, this pattern had been inverted, with Remain voters 10 percentage points less trusting than Leave voters.” At the start of the Covid pandemic, trust in politics and politicians was enhanced, as a “rally round the flag” attitude prevailed, only for this to be replaced by greater cynicism than existed before as the pandemic persisted. “Levels of political trust in Britain rose following the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, as has often been the case in a crisis. It appears, however, that this opportunity to rebuild trust may already have been squandered, with levels of trust in government falling gradually through 2020 before returning to pre-pandemic levels. Evidence from previous epidemics suggests young people growing up through the Covid-19 pandemic may have their trust in government permanently damaged.”
The report also finds that people in England trust their politicians less the further they live from Westminster, which may strengthen the case for more devolution of power to local levels. Faith in politics and politicians also varies among those with different levels of education, the study found. Those with GCSE-level qualifications or below consistently report lower levels of trust than those with higher education qualifications. However, as with the shift in faith among Remainers and Leavers, this trend reversed in 2019 when university-educated respondents reported lower trust levels than those with fewer qualifications for the first time. The IPPR argues that this process should be of particular concern to people on the centre left of politics who believe in strengthening the role of the state to deliver a more equal society, as without trust in government it will be more difficult to enact policies which deliver higher levels of government intervention. Unless there is action to reverse the decline of trust, the report warns that there could be a “downward spiral of trust” in which government performs worse, resulting in further declines as the economy underperforms, weakening public services and widening inequalities. All this could, in turn, lead to a rise in populism, more polarisation and more scandals and corruption. “Given this, we can clearly conclude that declining trust poses clear risks … Action is needed to set the UK on a new course away from democratic dissatisfaction and towards democratic and social renewal.”