Humza Yousaf is hoping for sunshine. In chatty video clips that have circulated on social media this week, the first minister extends a personal invitation to SNP members and the wider yes movement to attend this Saturday’s Believe in Scotland march and rally for independence. And he assures them that whatever the weather, “nothing can dampen our enthusiasm and determination”. It signals a distinct change in emphasis from his predecessor, Nicola Sturgeon, who rarely attended marches like this one, according to the veteran independence campaigner Lesley Riddoch. By contrast, Yousaf has the top speaker billing at the rally. “A lot of people are saying this will be a test for Yousaf, but he’s very good at this – it’s a rare skill to be able to command a crowd and he’s got it,” said Riddoch.
Plenty within the SNP report a buzz about the event, which is welcomed as a necessary morale boost after a summer of gloomy headlines: a slump in the polls, the ongoing police inquiry into party finances, a deficit of more than £800,000 because of a fall in membership and donations, and a combustible internal row over the future of the Bute House agreement – the power-sharing arrangement with the Scottish Greens. In October, the SNP will probably face a resurgent Scottish Labour party in a Rutherglen and Hamilton West byelection, a road test for Yousaf’s new independence strategy, which may also be challenged at the SNP’s annual conference in the same month, the first organised by the new chief executive, Murray Foote. Not that these challenges have detained Yousaf himself, who has used the relative freedom of the summer recess to make good on his pledge to be “first activist” as much as first minister, popping up at local events across the country. “He’s very reachable and very visible,” says one MSP, “which is good for members but also for the public more widely.” Next week, MSPs will return to the Scottish parliament to hear Yousaf set out his first programme for government – the Holyrood equivalent of the king’s speech – which could be an important moment of reset. After Yousaf scrapped or substantially revised a series of difficult policies in his first few months, including the deposit return scheme ultimately blocked by Westminster, it is understood that the aim now is to shift focus from things Scottish ministers cannot or will not do to what they can – while remaining mindful of serious budget constraints. He is also expected to work to tackle toxic masculinity, reflected in his recent Guardian opinion piece, and he has spoken about a shift in the way his government tackles financial hardship. Hosting a landmark anti-poverty summit in May, weeks after his election, Yousaf suggested his government should focus on targeted interventions funded by bold tax decisions instead of universal provision. Since then, the charity sector has welcomed increased cabinet-wide engagement, though some have raised concerns about civil servants asking them directly what ministers should cut. The Poverty Alliance has coordinated a letter from 150 charities, trade unions and campaign groups calling on Yousaf to expand, not cut, provision next week, while other third sector voices have urged him to stick with universal provision, pointing out that targeting support, for example with secondary school lunches, can increase the stigma and that universal provision may also be a way to convince voters to accept higher taxes. But Yousaf also underlined that tackling poverty and improving public services depended on a thriving business sector. And in this area, he faces a significant perception problem. This week, a report from the Fraser of Allander Institute said just 9% of Scottish firms agree that the government understands the business environment. And, days apart, the Scottish Tories and Labour set out their own economic platforms –attacking the SNP for its alliance with the “extreme” Greens and for focusing too much on social policy. The former business minister Ivan McKee says that while there are plenty of forums and working groups where businesses meet ministers, the quality of that engagement is a problem. “Businesses need to be involved in debugging policy early on,” he said. With no one at senior ministerial level having direct business experience, this sets a tone from the top, he added. Just as powerful as the idea that the Greens are anti-business is the perception of competence of Green ministers, according to recent polling commissioned for True North, a political consultancy set up by former advisers to Alex Salmond. “The Bute House agreement is not popular amongst voters as a whole, and not even half of SNP voters were supportive,” said Eilidh Whiteford, a former SNP MP for Banff and Buchan and now a senior adviser for True North. “But it also exposed a divide whereby it was relatively popular with younger people living in urban centres but deeply unpopular in the Highlands and the north-east.” Yousaf has reaffirmed his commitment to the Green deal and supportive MSPs hope some of the summer’s tensions will dissipate once the business of government cranks up again, but rows over short-term let regulation and a ban on gas boilers make this unlikely. And a few weeks into the term, Scottish ministers will challenge the UK government’s block on Holyrood’s gender recognition bill at the court of session – a policy that critics blame on Green orthodoxy, despite it being one of Sturgeon’s main reforms. Whiteford said: “It’s important to acknowledge how hard it is for the Scottish government, without a working majority. Humza Yousaf’s great strength is his interpersonal skills – could that give him room for manoeuvre with the rest of the parliament?”