Keir Starmer has told Labour staffers to prepare for government after a set of local election results that suggest he could be on course to become the next prime minister. The Labour leader told aides on Friday the party would win the next general election, even as polling experts suggested it could end up falling short of a majority. Speaking to officials at the party’s headquarters, Starmer said: “Doesn’t it feel good to be back on the march? Doesn’t it feel so worthwhile? Doesn’t it feel good to win?” He added: “We are going to bottle this feeling we have today and then we’re going to turn it into a general election win next year.” By Friday evening, Labour had gained more than 500 council seats , while the Conservatives had lost more than 1,000 seats. Pollsters said the results indicated a terrible night for the Tories, but not a convincing enough win for Labour to be sure of forming a majority government after the next election.
The polling expert Michael Thrasher told Sky News that based on the results from Thursday, Labour could be expected to win the next election by about eight points – not quite enough to form a majority. “Looking at the outcome on a general election, you would say that Labour are set to become the largest party, but in a hung parliament,” he said. “[It is] a very good result, but not quite getting over the line.” Labour officials pushed back on this analysis, however, pointing out that the recent collapse in support for the Scottish National party would help Labour secure the extra seats it needs to win outright. “This would be our best result in 20 years, and that is not even factoring in our likely recovery in Scotland,” said one. Labour sources pointed out that the party had over-performed in the kind of seats they are targeting at the next election: ones where Labour leave voters are likely to hold the key to victory. An analysis by Sky News showed the party had done best in areas with fewest graduates and most Brexit voters. “In the past we have piled up votes in university towns we were going to win anyway,” said one. “This time we are being more efficient, so we will need less of a national swing to win a majority.” The party was delighted by particular results in battleground seats it is targeting at the next election. Party officials said that taking control of Plymouth and Stoke-on-Trent was important, but taking the Kent council of Medway, which the party has not controlled since it was created in 1998, was an unexpected bonus. Other significant wins came in Swindon, Blackpool and Erewash. Party MPs and officials said they were pleased about how widespread their gains were. One shadow minister said: “Our vote share is going in the right direction in all the right places.” The Conservatives, however, pointed out their opponents had failed to pick up council seats in some areas, including Solihull in the Midlands.
Some Labour MPs believe that behind the headline results lies a broader sense among voters that while they dislike the Conservatives, they still do not have a clear sense of what Starmer would be like as prime minister. One said: “My sense on the doors was people are depressed, disillusioned, worn out. They are profoundly weary of the Tories. But there is no great clarity about the alternative path we’re offering.” Labour will have gained valuable experience while fighting the first set of England-wide elections since Rishi Sunak became prime minister. Campaigners said they frequently heard from voters on the doorstep that they believed Sunak was too rich to understand the economic problems they faced. “Sunak being out of touch is something that was coming back up to us on the doorstep,” said one senior official. “It is not something we have pushed too hard, but voters are picking up themselves.” One MP added: “‘Out of touch’ is certainly the most salient attack from our testing.” It also gave Labour a chance to road-test the campaign infrastructure it has built over three years of Starmer’s leadership. “The organisation has come a huge way since 2019,” said one Labour source. “We have made investments in organisers, in our regional staff.” Officials contrast this approach with that taken by Jeremy Corbyn in 2018 and 2019. In June 2018, for example, the party held a one-day music festival called Labour Live, which was designed to promote the leader’s image, but ended up being poorly attended and costing the party money. “From where we were … when you had the disaster of Labour Live, we are now entirely focused on winning the general election,” said the source. Starmer’s advisers say this week’s results will not change his strategy for the next 18 months before the likely general election date. But it has cemented one thing in the Labour leader’s mind: he will not reshuffle his shadow cabinet immediately, as had been expected, but will wait until later in the year. “Keir has one last shot to choose the frontbench team that will do maximum damage to the Tories before the next election,” said one senior MP. “These results mean he is able to take his time in doing so.”