The British Polling Council (BPC) has said there is “no reasonto believe that YouGov have not met their obligations” after examining controversial polling used to call for Rishi Sunak’s ousting. The two polls, which YouGov said were commissioned by a mysterious group of Tory rebels called the Conservative Britain Alliance, with the Tory peer David Frost acting as the intermediary, caused shock waves in Westminster when they were published in the Daily Telegraph last week. The BPC examined the polls, one of which focused on migration, on Wednesday and Thursday before issuing a statement, which said: “There is no reason at present to believe that YouGov have not met their obligations under its rules.” The main poll projected that the Conservatives were on track for a 1997-style defeat, but that the party could win if Sunak were replaced by a hypothetical Tory leader who cut taxes and immigration. The findings were unveiled on the front page of the Telegraph alongside a piece by Lord Frost arguing Sunak’s current strategy was leading the party to annihilation. This week, the Tory MP Simon Clarke cited the poll’s findings in an article calling for Sunak to be ousted.
There have been questions about who commissioned the survey, which would have cost tens of thousands of pounds. The Conservative Britain Alliance is said to consist of a group of Tory donors. The BPC discussed the controversy at its regular meeting on Wednesday and asked YouGov if it had documentation showing that the Conservative Britain Alliance was its client, according to one of its committee members. Nick Moon, secretary of the BPC, said on Thursday morning: “Under the rules of the BPC, YouGov has to publish the details of the poll, including who their client was. “They’ve said the client was the Conservative Britain Alliance. We’re just making sure that they were formally hired by this organisation.” In the evening, the BPC issued a statement saying it was satisfied that the Conservative Britain Alliance was the client. It read: “The BPC have been advised that this is the organisation that was responsible for commissioning the poll, and that therefore there is no reason at present to believe that YouGov have not met their obligations under its rules.” Requesting further information about the Conservative Britain Alliance “lies beyond its remit”, the BPC said, but it added it was “alive to identifying any lessons for its work that may be thought to arise from this incident”. YouGov said: “Over the past week, YouGov has sought guidance from the BPC and received assurances that we have followed the rules.”
The BPC is an industry group for polling companies that promotes transparency, but does not have any formal powers. Under its guidelines, clients do not have to be registered companies or have any formal status in order to commission polling. Pollsters do not need to specify who paid for the work. “So long as [the Conservative Britain Alliance] were actually the client they’ve met the rules,” Moon said. “If I were to form the St Albans Walrus Protection Society, that body could go out and commission polls about walruses. Any polling company would be very happy to take my money.” The saga has caused a headache for YouGov and has triggered calls for improved transparency around who pays for polling. YouGov issued a clarification on Wednesday after heavy criticism of the section of the survey which asked voters to choose between Labour leader Keir Starmer and an imaginary Tory leader who cut taxes, immigration and NHS waiting times. Rob Ford, a pollster and professor of political science at the University of Manchester, called it “one of the worst polling questions I’ve ever seen”.