Why is Northern Ireland in the news? The region appears to be heading towards another Stormont assembly election just seven months after the previous one. In May, Sinn Féin emerged as the biggest party, a landmark result that made its vice-president, Michelle O’Neill, the putative first minister. But the Democratic Unionist party (DUP) boycotted the power-sharing executive and the assembly, so Stormont has been mothballed. If it is not revived by just after midnight on Thursday – a legal deadline – a new election must be called. Why has the DUP boycotted Stormont?
The biggest unionist party wants to overturn the post-Brexit Irish Sea border that puts checks on goods entering the region from Great Britain, which is part of the Northern Ireland protocol. Many unionists see this as a threat to the region’s position in the UK and a slippery slope towards a united Ireland. The DUP wants the protocol overhauled before any resumption of devolved government. What is the UK government’s position? It shares some DUP concerns and is pushing ahead with a protocol bill that would give ministers powers to undo Brexit arrangements, a breach of the international treaty signed by the EU and UK. Downing Street says this should be sufficient for Jeffrey Donaldson’s party to return to Stormont and has been pressuring the party to do so, without success. Why is the DUP so adamant? It does not trust the Conservatives to steer the bill into law and actually use it. And it worries that current negotiations between London and Brussels over the protocol will produce a compromise well short of DUP demands. Plus, its hardline position has enthused unionist supporters. After torrid infighting the DUP clawed back credibility last May by vowing to boycott Stormont until the protocol was changed. To revive the executive now would look like defeat. What happens next? Sinn Féin and the Alliance party have called a special sitting of the assembly on Thursday to try to elect a new speaker – a prerequisite before an executive can be appointed – but the DUP will almost certainly use its veto to block it. Barring a deus ex machina, Stormont will miss its deadline for restoration. In that case ministers who have been in a caretaker role will step down and Northern Ireland Office civil servants will step up to run the region – keeping governmental departments operational, supervising public services, paying salaries, but not taking big decisions. They have done so before, during previous Stormont impasses. When could an election be held? It must be held within 12 weeks. Chris Heaton-Harris, the Northern Ireland secretary, has suggested mid-December. In reality the law could be tweaked to delay an election. This could make sense if British and EU negotiators produced a viable protocol compromise in coming weeks. However, Heaton-Harris has left little wriggle room by vowing to promptly call an election. He did so in the hope of pressuring the DUP. It did not work. Will the election break the deadlock? Probably not, which makes the whole exercise seem futile. The DUP hopes to increase its vote by eating into the support of the Ulster Unionist party. Likewise Sinn Féin hopes to match or exceed its performance in May by siphoning votes from the Social Democratic and Labour party, whose supporters may feel O’Neill was cheated out of the first minister post. People fed up with the cycle of crisis and collapse are likely to back the centrist Alliance. This outcome would leave the political dynamic unchanged, with business leaders, civil society and other parties imploring the DUP to enter Stormont and the DUP refusing.