Much of England goes to the polls on Thursday in local elections that will set the political tone going into the summer. The balance of power ought to be clear: Labour holds double digit poll leads, and is favoured on every issue by voters who report exasperation with the government and eagerness for change. Yet the mood in Westminster is more uncertain – Labour fears, and the Conservatives hope, that the tide can still turn before the general election arrives. The task for Rishi Sunak in his first electoral test is clear. The tide is against his party, so he needs to set the bar low and hope disaster is at least averted. It does not help that his party are more exposed than usual with this year’s contests mainly on blue-leaning territory. Yet the Conservatives also have a weaker than usual starting position, thanks to the electoral wipeout they suffered in 2019, when nearly all of the seats being contested were last fought. The 2019 contest took place in the dog days of the May government, with Nigel Farage’s Brexit party surging in the polls. It was a disaster for the Tories, with more than 1,300 seats lost, but meltdown then means less exposure now. The Conservatives are defending fewer vulnerable seats and may even recover ground in some quarters. Every defence against the tide and unexpected gain will be seized upon as a sign of resilience. Keir Starmer’s task is equally clear: this local election offers the best opportunity for a show of strength. He needs Labour to convert clear poll leads into council clean sweeps. The past is also helpful for Labour – the 2019 local elections were a “plague on both your houses” cycle, where voters turned against government and opposition alike. Labour, like the Conservatives, lost votes and seats then. But Labour, unlike the Conservatives, have recovered strongly since. The opposition is therefore sure to advance even if the governing party does not fall further. But steady progress will not be enough for a nervous opposition still struggling to believe in its good fortune. Starmer needs a dominant performance to convince sceptical supporters who have lived through many disappointments that Labour really is on the road back to government. Turning hope into expectation will require a red tide reminiscent of Tony Blair’s mid-1990s heyday. Nothing less than a knockout blow will do.
Delivering a dominant performance will require finally bridging the Brexit divide that has sundered voters in every election since 2016. Shared anger at falling wages, rising bills and struggling public services are an opportunity for Labour to mobilise voters on both sides of the Brexit divide. The Conservatives will hope that the bonds forged in the long Brexit battle will endure, helping them to hold on in leave-leaning districts even as the Brexit battle fades from memory. The declining significance of Brexit could also pose problems for the Liberal Democrats, who rode a wave of remainer anger in 2019, gaining 700 seats and control of a dozen councils. Holding these gains in the current context will be tough. Yet the Liberal Democrats have performed strongly in the last two local election rounds, despite tepid national polling and fading interest in Brexit. The party may be recovering its traditional strength in suburban shires and town halls as memories of the coalition fade. Lib Dems will hope this trend continues, particularly in areas where they hope to challenge Conservative Westminster incumbents next year. The smaller parties also have a big role to play in these local elections. The Greens have a record slate, with candidates standing in four out of every 10 contests. Green competition will complicate Labour and Lib Dem campaigns, offering a distinctive agenda and an alternative outlet for voter anger. Reform UK is also dipping its toes into local politics. While the party’s slate is too modest to have much overall impact, even a handful of strong local showings from Reform will set Tory nerves jangling. A split in the leave vote could threaten many Conservative Westminster seats next year. There is also one X-factor this year. The anti-politics mood unleashed by Brexit frustration benefited anyone who was on the ballot in 2019, sweeping more than 700 local and independent candidates to victory. Many of these seats will be in play this week, but it is hard to predict who stands to gain. Recovery of independent seats could reduce the Conservative retreat or magnify a red wave. The fate of the big two this time will turn in part on the voters who rejected politics as usual last time. Robert Ford is professor of political science at Manchester University and co-author of The British General Election of 2019