In the frenzied hours shortly after Rishi Sunak made his surprise election announcement on Wednesday, despairing Tory MPs could be spotted wandering around Westminster contemplating their fate. One government minister was seen thrusting his official red folder towards his opposition number, whom he had happened to bump into. “You might as well have this now,” he said. In the tearooms and bars of parliament in London there was a palpable sense of resignation. One of the 70 Tory MPs who is standing down hugged a Labour colleague. “Good luck. This is all yours,” they said, casting their arm around the room. Sunak’s surprise election call, when the Conservatives are 20 points behind, the biggest gap for an incumbent party since polling began, has left many of his own MPs shocked, fearful and, in some cases, angry. They had assumed the prime minister would opt for an autumn poll, giving time for the economic recovery to filter through to the public, the deportation flights to Rwanda to take off, and Labour to be subject to the white glare of scrutiny.
The plan to have the election in July had been a tightly guarded secret, with Sunak believed to have begun seriously weighing up the decision a month ago. Tory insiders say that he finally made his mind up after the local elections. But the decision also split his advisers, with Isaac Levido, the election strategist who helped Boris Johnson deliver his massive 80-seat majority, recommending waiting until the autumn, a time, when they hoped, the public would feel better off. Others, led by the deputy prime minister, Oliver Dowden, believed the prime minister could not afford to wait. They were already conscious that the economic recovery was not happening as quickly as they had expected, and that when inflation did fall and interest rates were cut the government would be unlikely to get the credit. Sunak was also understood to be concerned that he would appear to be clinging on to power and wanted to be able to call the election on his own terms. His closest aides agreed, fearful that things would only get worse by the autumn, an irony not lost on some senior Tories as they watched the prime minister’s rain-drenched speech being drowned out by the sound of the New Labour anthem, D:Ream’s Things Can Only Get Better. One Tory backbencher, asked after the announcement if the July election was a good idea, replied: “It’s a disaster. I can’t understand it.” Another said simply: “No.” Not all Tory MPs were so defeatist. Even among those who thought the summer election was a mistake, there were plenty determined to fight on, doing everything they might locally to encourage voters to back them, even if the national picture looked bleak.
One veteran MP in a marginal seat said: “Of course I’m going to fight it, I don’t believe in just giving up like the prime minister has obviously decided to.” Another MP whose seat is on a knife-edge was prepared to embrace the call. “I think there are colleagues who are more bound to lose than me, who perhaps feel it is a little indelicate,” the MP said, hinting that Sunak had thought little about the employment and financial prospects for his cast-out troops. Others were more upbeat. One even welcomed the move, saying Sunak “might as well go for broke”, adding: “It looks bold, catches Labour off guard, and flights to Rwanda might happen during the campaign. The timing matters less than the actual flight, and there’s a small advantage in going for it.” Sunak has subsequently admitted that no flights will take off before the election. Another suggested it was a “perfectly respectable aim” for the prime minister to try to minimise losses and deprive Labour of a big majority, although laughed when it was suggested the Tories could still pull it back. The combination of seats previously regarded as safe now looking marginal, and the fall in ground troops willing to knock on doors, had even the most optimistic MPs worried. One former minister warned that the party would struggle to encourage disillusioned activists, many of whom will have lost their council seats in the last two local elections, to turn out. While some MPs have cancelled holidays to prepare for the election, more than one admitted they were sticking to their plans, although would not be widely advertising their trip. Steve Baker, who is likely to lose his High Wycombe seat, said he had decided not to cancel any plans for school half-term. “I can tell you, I am going to keep to my plans.” Some frustration towards the prime minister was already evident before he set the date, with Tory whips suggesting they thought the number of letters being sent in had been “getting close” to the threshold needed to trigger a confidence vote. It was unclear whether that was a factor in Sunak’s decision. Either way, time ran out for the rebels, with one Tory backbencher saying: “It’s too late. We could have a leadership contest, but that would mean nothing. The king has already consented to an election.” The gloomy response to the Tory election announcement was reflected by the location of the party’s first campaign rally, on Wednesday night – a back room on an upper floor of the ExCeL centre, east London. About 100 activists who answered a call-out from their party chairs navigated the torrential rain to form a placard-waving backdrop, along with most of the cabinet and the prime minister’s wife. Sunak arrived on stage at about 8pm, still apparently wearing the rain-soaked trousers he had on while speaking outside Downing Street. But among the fixed grins of the cabinet, in some cases looking specifically designed for the cameras, there were some who were unable to hide their misery.