The felling of Michael Portillo became a famous moment of the 1997 Labour landslide. This election could see a series of Tory big beasts lose their seats if the polls prove to be right. From a former leader to the current chancellor, these are the senior Conservatives at risk. Iain Duncan Smith Seat Chingford and Woodford Green Majority in 2019 1,262 Challenger Labour The former Tory leader’s majority has eroded over recent elections as the seat has become younger and more diverse. He may be helped by a Labour row which saw the party deselect its previous candidate, Faiza Shaheen. She is running as an independent, but it is unlikely to be enough to save Duncan Smith. Risk factor: 4/5
Grant Shapps Seat Welwyn Hatfield Majority in 2019 10,955 Challenger Labour The veteran cabinet minister has often been the safe pair of hands in media outings for Rishi Sunak, but his seat is now under threat from Starmer. What looked like a healthy majority of 11,000 in 2019 is at risk because of Labour’s resurgence in these suburban seats. Risk factor: 3/5 Liam Fox Seat North Somerset Majority in 2019 17,536 Challenger Labour The former defence secretary and prominent figure on the right would not have felt under threat from Labour in his rural constituency after the last election, where he enjoyed 53% of the vote. But if the polls are right, he too faces being swept away by the Labour tide. Risk factor: 2/5 Mark Harper Seat Forest of Dean Majority in 2019 15,869 Challenger Labour The transport secretary is one of Sunak’s most passionate supporters, but he too is in danger of losing his seat. While it was held by Labour under Tony Blair, it has been in Tory hands since Harper won it in 2005, having tried and failed to win it four years earlier. Risk factor: 4/5 Alex Chalk Seat Cheltenham Majority in 2019 981 Challenger Lib Dems The moderate justice secretary would have struggled even in a campaign that had gone well for the Tories. Given the Conservatives’ travails, he has little chance of retaining a seat in which the Lib Dems have always had a strong presence. They held it in 2010. Risk factor: 5/5
Gillian Keegan Seat Chichester Majority in 2019 21,490 Challenger Lib Dems The education secretary and queen of the punchy media interview is an unlikely inclusion on the “at risk” list, but she has been targeted in the Lib Dems’ almost-surgical campaign, going after seats where they are well-placed to win tactical votes. An extraordinary swing is projected here. Risk factor: 3/5 Richard Holden Seat Basildon and Billericay Majority in 2019 20,412 Challenger Reform UK The Conservative party chairman has won scorn from party insiders after installing himself in this supposedly safe seat after his own constituency in the north-east was abolished. There’s just one problem: Reform UK is now projected to give him a serious challenge in Essex. Risk factor: 3/5 Mel Stride Seat Central Devon Majority in 2019 17,721 Challenger Labour The work and pensions secretary was a key figure in the removal of Liz Truss and has provided regular backing for Sunak on the airwaves, but he now finds himself at the outer edges of the possible Labour surge. If it’s a really bad night, he could go. Risk factor: 3/5 Penny Mordaunt Seat Portsmouth North Majority in 2019 15,780 Challenger Labour Given how close she came last time, the Commons leader seems set to feature in an apparently imminent Tory leadership contest. First, she has the small matter of retaining her Portsmouth seat – another that last fell into Labour hands during Blair’s reign. Risk factor: 3/5
Gavin Williamson Seat Stone, Great Wyrley and Penkridge Majority in 2019 New seat Challenger Labour The former chief whip, defence secretary and education secretary has caused controversy during his career in different cabinet jobs. He now faces an electoral battle in this new Staffordshire seat, largely made up of areas previously held by the Tories. Projected as a close call. Risk factor: 3/5 James Cleverly Seat Braintree Majority in 2019 24,673 Challenger Labour If the home secretary isn’t returned to parliament, it will have meant a complete meltdown for the Conservatives, probably leaving them below 100 seats. Yet some projections envisage defeat in this Essex stronghold, with most highlighting it as at least a close contest. Enough to have Cleverly sweating. Risk factor: 1/5 Jeremy Hunt Seat Godalming and Ash Majority in 2019 New seat Challenger Lib Dems Hunt could make history on election night, by being the first ever serving chancellor to be unseated. To avoid that fate, he will have to see off a strong challenge from the Lib Dems, who are fighting hard in this corner of Surrey. It could be the election’s Portillo moment. Risk factor: 4/5 Liz Truss Seat South West Norfolk Majority in 2019 26,195 Challenger Labour The former prime minister is attempting to stick around in parliament. She couldn’t possibly lose such a big majority, could she? A sizeable Reform vote in the seat could imperil her, but while even some Conservatives may cheer a Labour victory here, most models suggest she will survive. Risk factor: 2/5