It might not be a direct response to Keir Starmer’s jibe about “inaction man”, but one thing Rishi Sunak definitely will be this autumn is busy. Extremely busy. It remains to be seen, however, whether voters will notice or care. Fresh from his Conservative party conference pledge to be the man who can reset UK politics, Downing Street is planning a flurry of activity in the coming weeks with the prime minister very much at its centre. As part of a packed schedule, Sunak is expected to visit India in late October for the Cricket World Cup amid much excited talk of a trade deal, followed in November by the global summit on AI, the king’s speech to parliament and the autumn fiscal statement. No 10 sources bill this as the period when Sunak, having spent his first year as prime minister dousing the flames of the Boris Johnson and Liz Truss periods, can “grab events by the reins”. There are plenty of pitfalls ahead, including another event in November’s packed timetable: a reshuffle forecast to take place shortly before the announcement of legislative plans in the king’s speech. Steve Barclay, the health secretary, and the environment secretary, Thérèse Coffey, are both tipped for demotion. Some want Sunak to go further and move his home secretary, Suella Braverman, or the chancellor, Jeremy Hunt.
Either of the latter moves would be likely to upset some wing of a Conservative party that the conference in Manchester showed is arguably more focused on planning for a post-Sunak future than on winning an election. Removing Braverman would enrage MPs on the right of the party, for whom her populism-infused recent messages about migration and the plight of ordinary Britons thwarted by an out-of-touch liberal elite made her their standard bearer. Some in the party, however, argue that for Sunak to seize the initiative this autumn he needs a sweeping change that puts his allies in key positions and wipes out many of the Truss and Johnson supporters who still hold key positions. “We’ll see at the reshuffle how much he is willing to stamp himself on the party,” one senior Conservative said. “He has brought an end to the political chaos and the economic chaos. Now is the time for him to take the initiative.” Tim Bale, a professor of politics at Queen Mary University of London, said bold action could counter the impression of a government running out of steam, as evidenced by a recent YouGov poll showing 84% regard Sunak’s administration as “tired” – with 49% going with “very tired”. “Sunak running around the country and promising to pass this or that law might at least mobilise the base,” he said. “After all, no government wants to give the impression to its core supporters, especially those that might canvass or leaflet for it at election time, that it’s given up the ghost.” One problem for Sunak is that much of his frenzy of activity will focus on areas such as regulating AI and sealing a trade deal with India – even the latter, officials warn, is unlikely in November – which fall under the category of “worthy but unlikely to sway the polls”.
“I doubt very much whether it will actually make any difference,” Bale said. “I think people have made up their minds, and it’s too late now.” He added: “There isn’t a great deal they can do apart from just hoping that the economy looks as if it’s heading in the right direction, which will allow them to deploy the classic ‘don’t let Labour ruin it’ argument. And desperately hoping that the NHS looks like it’s turning around. Because those are the two fundamental things.” Thus far it does seem Sunak’s conference pledges have made less of an impression than Starmer’s appeal to disillusioned Conservative voters at Labour’s gathering, with a YouGov poll on Friday showing the opposition party now has a 23-point lead.
It is in this context that the Conservatives face two byelections next Thursday, in Tamworth and in Mid Bedfordshire – seats they held with majorities of almost 20,000 and 25,000 respectively in 2019, but where winning one would now be seen as a huge boost, and winning both a near-miracle. More awkward electoral tests could come, possibly in the key “red wall” seat of Blackpool South, if the now whipless former Tory incumbent Scott Benton faces formal sanction for reportedly offering to lobby ministers on behalf of the gambling industry. Against that, the Conservatives gained a rare addition to their Commons numbers after the unexpected defection of the Scottish National party MP Lisa Cameron, with predictions an SNP collapse could result in the Tories winning as many as five new seats in Scotland at the next general election.
Also on the calendar for later this year, at a date still to be confirmed, is the supreme court’s verdict on the Rwanda deportation scheme. A win for the government could result in flights beginning swiftly; a loss would give Sunak an excuse for not stopping unofficial Channel crossings by asylum seekers, one of his five pledges. If there is success with another of his pledges, to halve inflation, Sunak will face renewed pressure from some of his MPs to commit to tax cuts – even though, with Hunt warning on Friday that the fiscal situation is “definitely worse than what I faced in the spring”, no one expects them at the autumn statement. David Jones, a senior Tory backbencher on the right of the party, said fellow MPs wanted Sunak and Hunt to enact sweeping tax cuts, especially to inheritance tax, but not necessarily now. “The best time to do those would be closer to the election, at next year’s budget,” he said. Overall, the former minister said, hopes were modest. “Party conference doesn’t seem to have changed much. We’re pretty much in the same position as we were going into them,” he said. “Expectations right now are so low that any kind of result in the byelections would be taken as a win.”