The loss of the Hartlepool byelection in 2021 undoubtedly marked the low point of Keir Starmer’s leadership of the Labour party and convinced many commentators that the next election was a foregone conclusion. Two years on, after Labour’s most buoyant party conference in years, my research group More in Common ran a focus group of voters who had backed the Conservatives for the first time in that byelection, to find out what, if anything, had changed. If Starmer were looking for a ringing endorsement, he would have been disappointed. “Sod it, might as well give him a try, because he can’t be any worse,” was how Georgia, a 35-year-old teacher, described why she would switch to Labour at the next election. But in politics you only have to be ahead of the other side, and if this group is anything to go by, Starmer ends conference season in a far stronger position than Rishi Sunak.
Just as in Workington last week, these voters in Hartlepool were unforgiving about the government’s record and their comments about the prime minister reflected the recent tumble in his approval ratings. Courtney, a 27-year-old hairdresser, spoke for the group, saying: “Anything’s better than Rishi,” while Kate, a 26-year-old assistant, said: “It’s just a joke, he’s trying to prove himself and he’s not getting anywhere.” The prime minister’s wealth also continues to prove an achilles heel as Britons struggle with the cost of living. Joe, a 76-year-old pensioner, complained: “He’s in a different world from us. I don’t think Mr Sunak is struggling to find money for his next energy bill.”
Given that indictment of the incumbent, Labour might have hoped its conference was an opportunity to set out an alternative. But aside from a lively discussion about glitter – in which Courtney worried Starmer would be finding it on himself for months – Joe questioned why the deputy leader, Angela Rayner, hadn’t been sent to deal with the protester, and others assumed it must have been staged because “security can’t be that bad”. Nothing else had cut through from the Liverpool conference stage. As a result, there was limited change from what More in Common is used to hearing about Starmer in our focus groups over the last year. Despite everyone expecting him to be prime minister after the next election, they remained frustrated they had not heard anything he’d do, beyond criticising the Tories. Sara, a 45-year-old social worker, said: “He doesn’t bring anything new to the table … but it can’t get any worse.” Joe added: “He’s just as privileged … he’s not said anything.” Referring to Rayner and the shadow chancellor, Rachel Reeves, Terry, a 57-year-old purchasing officer, told us: “I think the ladies around him speak up more than Keir Starmer does.” But there were some more bright spots than usual for the leader of the opposition. Eddy, a 56-year-old travel consultant, explained: “I’ve got more faith Labour will change things for the better”. And whenasked what a Starmer premiership would represent, all bar one of the group answered either “change” or “hope”. With our polling finding that 75% of the public think a “change” is necessary, that may be all Starmer needs to get his hands on the keys to No 10. Labour can also take heart from the fact that the Labour policies discussed – removing tax breaks from private schools and building 1.5m homes – were popular with the group. Terry felt that the Tories’ opposition to removing the tax breaks “shows they’re private-school clowns”. And everyone felt housebuilding was a priority – as long as it had the right infrastructure to go with it. In reality, the next election may have little to do with Labour’s policies. In this group, the participants were much less interested in talking about party politics and instead wanted to share their worries about the NHS. Sara, Courtney and Georgia talked about bare-bones maternity services leaving them worried about their pregnancies. Terry told us how he lost his father to a heart attack after he couldn’t be seen at the weekend, and earlier this week Joe had called his GP at 8am on the dot, and was told he could not get an appointment – he had to go to A&E instead. It was Sara who captured the mood, not just of these voters but of almost every focus group we have run over the past year, when she told us: “It’s just sad, because it’s such an amazing country … but I’ve never seen it like this to be honest, it’s a lot of things just failing.” Unless that perception changes, questions of what Starmer does or doesn’t stand for are unlikely to matter. Luke Tryl is the UK director of the research group More in Common.