A long-awaited report on the extent of Covid rule-breaking at parties in Downing Street and across government was expected to be published this week. Boris Johnson’s premiership could hang on its findings; Tory MPs have said they want to see what evidence of wrongdoing is dug up by Sue Gray – a senior civil servant known as a ruthless Whitehall enforcer – before deciding whether to call for him to quit. But despite speculation reaching fever pitch on Tuesday that the report would be released imminently, its contents remain shrouded in mystery. Has Sue Gray finished her report? Government sources have indicated Gray has finished the report, but pushed back on the suggestion there has been a “delay” because, they say, there was no previously announced date for its publication. Undoubtedly, the handling of the report’s release has been thrown into chaos by the announcement – also on Tuesday – that Scotland Yard was opening its own investigation into the party allegations. It would make sense to assume that the timing is not coincidental; Gray is unlikely to have shared her findings with the Metropolitan police unless she was nearing the end of her own investigation.
Because Gray is working with the Cabinet Office’s propriety and ethics team, No 10 has been unable to provide any updates on the report’s status besides confirming it has not yet been sent the final version. What are the roadblocks preventing publication? Little is known about why there seems to be so much wrangling over the report, but it is thought that lawyers and human resources officials are inspecting its contents and deciding what can and cannot be published. If there is a risk of prejudicing the Met’s own investigation, then it is possible parts of Gray’s report may have to be redacted or held back. However, that would probably prompt accusations of a cover-up. The Met has reportedly been briefing that it is not asking for Gray’s report to be held back. Unions are also apparently pushing for junior civil servants to have their names redacted before the document is released. A former No 10 adviser, who has been involved in publishing similar reports, said that when such sought-after documents are officially submitted to No 10 it is very difficult to avoid leaks. “Informally agreeing when it is sent is best practice,” they said, noting that “as close to the weekend as possible is always a good idea” for decreasing the level of attention paid to the report. What might eventually emerge? Johnson’s spokesperson has committed to publishing the “findings” of Gray’s report. This has prompted concern that only the conclusions will be made public rather than the full report. However, No 10 has said this is because they do not know what format Gray’s report will take, and are adamant “it remains our intention to publish it as received”. What will happen when the report is released? Gray expects that when her final version is delivered to Downing Street it will be published within a matter of hours. Johnson has previously promised to place a copy in the House of Commons library for all MPs to see, and to answer questions in parliament at the earliest opportunity. But even if the report is published this week, the chance of it getting much scrutiny by MPs is diminishing. Most MPs are already back home in their constituencies for the weekend, and No 10 does not want to rile Tory backbenchers further by being seen to publish the report while they are away from Westminster, meaning Johnson may not have to face questions in parliament until next week. When the report is finally released, MPs will pore over it closely; dozens have said they will consider submitting a letter expressing no confidence in Johnson if there is any evidence he misled the Commons, or if there is evidence of criminality. MPs could also decide that even if Johnson is found not to have done anything wrong, the political pain of a prime minister not being able to control the office where workers broke the very Covid rules they wrote is enough to push Johnson out. What would happen in a vote of no confidence – triggered if 54 Tory MPs submit letters calling for one – is even less certain. Some ministers could vote against him, but Johnson’s supporters have been running a shadow whipping operation to prepare for such an eventuality and are confident he would convincingly win such a ballot. It is also possible the pressure on Johnson recedes. His allies are known to be planning to give assurances he will overhaul his Downing Street team and other key parts of the government machine. That may be enough to win MPs over, and let Johnson escape a vote of no confidence through the eye of a needle. • This article was amended on 27 January 2022 to remove an incorrect statement that the House of Commons was not sitting on Friday.