Boris Johnson has refused to rule out imposing a third nationwide lockdown in England, as official data showed Covid infection rates increasing across much of the UK even before the Christmas relaxation of the rules. As Northern Ireland prepares for a strict six-week shutdown from Boxing Day, and with people in Wales threatened with stringent “tier 4” restrictions, the prime minister was asked whether similar measures could be needed in England.
“Obviously we’re hoping very much that we’ll be able to avoid anything like that, but the reality is that the rates of infection have increased very much in the last few weeks,” he told Sky News. The latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), based on swab samples of randomly selected households, chime with other data – including government figures – that have shown an increase in infections. The UK’s R rate is now estimated to be between 1.1 and 1.2 According to the ONS, about one in 95 people in England had the virus in the week of 6-12 December, compared with about one in 90 in Wales, one in 100 in Scotland and one in 215 in Northern Ireland. The week before, about one in 115 people in England had the virus. As with previous weeks, the data for England shows that the positivity rate is highest among school-aged children. But the latest figures reveal that cases are now climbing more widely, as experts have previously warned, including among elderly people who are more vulnerable to severe Covid. “In the most recent week, the percentage of people testing positive has increased in most age groups, other than those in school year 12 to 24 years old and those aged 50 to 69,” the ONS said.
The figures also highlight geographical differences in the spread of Covid. London and the east Midlands now have the highest positivity rates, and cases are rising in many parts of the UK. “Over the most recent week, the percentage of people testing positive has increased sharply in London, with other increases in the east of England, the east Midlands, and the south-east,” the ONS team report, noting that the figures have fallen in the north-west and Yorkshire and the Humber.
Prof Steven Riley, of Imperial College London, who is a member of the government advisory committee SPI-M and works on the React-1 infection surveillance study, said: “The latest data from ONS show increasing infection in multiple areas of the country. Trends for London, south-east and east of England are particularly worrying. These are consistent with the latest React-1 data and data from pillar 2 [swab testing of the public] suggesting that infections in the east of London, Essex and Kent are continuing to increase rapidly.” The health secretary, Matt Hancock, has expressed concern about a new strain of the virus circulating in Kent and London, though it is unclear as yet whether it is behaving any differently to previous strains. The ONS said the percentages of people in Wales and Scotland testing positive were rising, and rates were no longer falling in Northern Ireland. Scotland’s health secretary, Jeane Freeman, when asked about the possibility of lockdown-type measures, said: “Nothing at this point can sensibly be ruled out.” She said: “Undoubtedly the situation in Wales and Northern Ireland is significantly more challenging … but that doesn’t mean we should be complacent.”
Freeman said the levels of restrictions imposed on local authorities were under continual discussion, with the results of the next weekly review due to be announced next Tuesday. Scotland’s national clinical director, Jason Leitch, said: “Hospitals in Scotland are coping. They are not ringing alarm bells to tell us to do something dramatic quickly.” He said that having spoken to colleagues in Wales and Northern Ireland, “they are worried. You can hear from some of the language both from politicians and clinical advisers how worried they are”. A growing number of NHS hospitals report that they are struggling with the number of coronavirus patients coupled with staff off sick or isolating. The number of Covid patients in hospital in the UK is now higher than at any other point in the second wave, at more than 18,000 patients. The prime minister urged the public to heed warnings about the risks of Christmas gatherings, despite the relaxation in the rules that allows three families to form a bubble for up to five days. “What we’re saying to people now, over this Christmas period, is think of those rules about the three households that you can bubble up with, the five days – that is very much a maximum, that is not a target that people should aim for,” Johnson told Sky News. “This is the time to think about our elderly relatives, avoid spreading the disease. Keep it short, keep it small. Have yourselves a very little Christmas.” The UK government is due to review the three-tiered restrictions on 30 December, but government insiders acknowledge it will be difficult at that point to disentangle the impact of Christmas socialising from other factors. “There will be a lot of noise,” said one official. Realistically, even if a lockdown can be avoided, officials expect the tiered restrictions to remain in place until the most vulnerable groups in the population can be vaccinated. They will also be watching closely to see whether the vaccine helps to stop people spreading the virus, as well as preventing them from becoming ill. Prof Devi Sridhar, the chair of global public health at the University of Edinburgh, told the Guardian that the latest infection figures should prompt the government to reconsider its guidance for the coming weeks. “It is clear that rather than easing restrictions of the Christmas period, we probably need to be strengthening restrictions to keep a handle on the situation,” she said.