Conservative representation has collapsed to its lowest level since 1998 in the areas that voted in Thursday’s local elections, according to a Guardian analysis. The Tories now control 19% of seats in the 98 council areas that had announced results by 20:40 on 3 May – their lowest level since Labour’s Tony Blair swept to power in the late 1990s. But while Labour made significant gains in key target areas such as Nuneaton on Friday, the party has fallen short of its previous performance in some areas, as independent candidates, many campaigning on the war in Gaza, pulled off shock victories in traditional heartlands such as Oldham.
Labour now controls 48% of seats in the 98 councils that had declared by 20:40 – only its highest level in the areas with elections this year since 2018. By contrast, the party had controlled 62% of councillors in these areas by 1997, the year of Blair’s landslide. However, Labour gains in areas such as Nuneaton, Hartlepool, Rushmoor and North East Lincolnshire will give Keir Starmer confidence his party is still on track to win back the key seats it needs to form the next UK government.
In total, Guardian analysis shows there are nine councils where Labour representation, in terms of the party’s share of councillors, is now at its highest level since 1997, following the 2 May elections. Yet, despite the Conservatives collapsing to record lows, there are more councils where Labour is lagging behind its position in the late 1990s as independents and third parties take up more seats.
Among the most significant Tory losses was Welwyn Hatfield council where the party lost 10 out of 14 seats it was defending. This is because the council area overlaps with the Labour target constituency of Welwyn Hatfield, which has a Conservative MP. The seat would require a swing of 10.4 points to turn Labour in the next general election. The target constituencies of Aldershot, East Worthing and Shoreham, and Hyndburn also recorded heavy Conservative councillor losses in their overlapping councils.
Local elections are not held across the country and therefore are not wholly indicative of what will happen in a general election. But the fact that the Conservatives lost significant numbers of councillors in areas that Labour needs to win in the general election is another sign Starmer’s party is on course for victory. Chris Hanretty, a professor of politics at Royal Holloway, University of London, said: “For a time, the [Conservatives] could believe that their historical lows in the polls would not be replicated at the ballot box. Now they can look from polls to results, and from results to polls, and either way things look terrible. “At the moment they have to hope that those people who aren’t voting in local elections are more excited about the party, or that things are going to change dramatically between now and whenever the election is.”
In total, these results mean that Labour gained control of eight councils net of its losses as of 20:40, four of which swung directly from the Conservatives.