Boris Johnson has said the UK is not yet convinced by Russia’s announcement that it was withdrawing troops from the borders of Ukraine, adding: “The intelligence we are seeing is not encouraging.” Speaking shortly after an emergency mid-morning Cobra meeting on Tuesday, the prime minister said there “mixed signals” coming from Moscow, while other ministers and officials warned Russian troop numbers were still increasing. “We’ve got Russian field hospitals being constructed near the border with Ukraine in Belarus [that] only can be construed as preparation for an invasion,” Johnson said. “You’ve got more [Russian] battalion tactical groups actually been brought closer to the border with Ukraine, according to the intelligence that we’re seeing.” The cautious British assessment contrasts with Russian defence ministry statements that it is withdrawing troops from is southern and western military districts, supported by footage that appeared to be shot in Crimea.
In a conference call with MPs, Ben Wallace, the defence secretary, said Russian forces – estimated at 150,000 – were if anything stepping up, not down. The Kremlin needed to be “judged by its actions”, the minister stressed. Other western officials were in line with his remarks. “We see no sign of Russian de-escalation,” they said. “We see the opposite.” They said there was continuing concern that the Kremlin would manufacture a pretext to justify a military intervention. Nevertheless, Johnson also said “we are seeing a Russia openness to conversations” and that “we think there is an avenue for diplomacy”, based on remarks coming from the Kremlin. On Monday, Sergei Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, told Vladimir Putin to continue and expand negotiations with the west. Reflecting on that and similar exchanges, Johnson said: “We are seeing mixed signals.” Britain’s embassy in Kyiv will be kept open, Johnson said, in contrast with the US announcement made on Monday night to relocate all its embassy staff and operations to Lviv in the west of Ukraine. The prime minister said: “One of the things we want to do is to show the UK’s continued support for Ukraine, for stability in Ukraine – and I believe that keeping our embassy going for as long as possible is an important symbol.” The Cobra meeting reviewed the security situation. On Monday, it emerged that Britain believed that Russia was in the process of sending thousands more troops to the borders of Ukraine, with another 14 battalions to join the 100 already positioned near its neighbour.
Ministers fear that an attack directed at Kyiv could still take place at any moment. But some analysts are unsure that Russia has the capability to hold what is likely to be a hostile country. Henry Boyd, from the International Institute of Strategic Studies, said there was a difference between “a large scale military offensive and an invasion and occupation of the whole country”. He added: “I think the ability of Russia conducting the former is reasonably certain. Its ability to successfully conduct the latter is much more questionable.” Johnson repeated that an economic crime bill would be brought forward in the next session of parliament – a commitment that had briefly been dropped, prompting the resignation of the Lords Treasury minister, Theodore Agnew. The prime minister also committed to introducing registers that would spell out the beneficial ownership of luxury properties and businesses in the UK, as part of the legislation. The planned measure, he said, would be to “open up the Matryoshka doll if you like” to reveal “who really owns the companies that we’re talking about, who really owns the properties that we’re talking about”. Britain, working in conjunction with the US and the EU, has also threatened to bring forward sanctions against Russian oligarchs close to the Kremlin if Russia was to launch an invasion.