Seven years after the Brexit referendum, the proportion of Britons who want to rejoin the EU has climbed to its highest levels since 2016, according to a new survey. Both Britons and Europeans are also a lot less likely to think other countries would follow the Brexit example, and Britons are more optimistic about the bloc’s future – to the extent of trusting the European Commission more than their own government. Data from YouGov’s latest Brexit tracker survey found that, excluding those who said they would not vote or did not know, 58.2% of people in Britain would now vote to rejoin. The percentage is only fractionally down on the 60% recorded in February this year – the highest figure since comparable data began in February 2012 – and has risen more or less consistently since a post-referendum low of 47% in early 2021. Across most of the EU member states surveyed, support for continued membership has now dropped back to levels it enjoyed before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which sparked a strong surge in pro-European sentiment, the YouGov figures showed.
Asked whether they would vote to remain in the EU or leave in a Brexit-style referendum, 62% of respondents in France and 63% in Italy, which are traditionally among the least enthusiastic EU member states, said they would vote to stay. Elsewhere in the EU, 87% of respondents in Spain said last month they would choose to remain, along with 79% in Denmark, 70% in Sweden and 69% in Germany.
A record proportion of respondents in Britain also think other countries are now unlikely to follow its example and leave the EU in the next decade – 42% said it was unlikely, up from 26% three years ago, while 40% said it was likely, down from 58%. EU member states showed a similar trend, with 45% of respondents in France saying they thought another EU-exit was likely, compared to 55% in February 2020. In Germany the figures were 36% (down from 42%) and in Denmark 29% (41%). While sentiment towards EU membership has shifted significantly in Britain since the referendum, a slim majority of respondents (51%) say they still think it is unlikely Britain will rejoin the EU at some future point in the future. Again, however, that figure has been falling more or less consistently – it stood at 62% two years ago – and 29% of respondents in Britain told YouGov in April they think it is likely the country will rejoin – up from 21% in early 2021. In the EU, people in Italy (61%) and France (54%) were less confident that Britain would rejoin, with Denmark (43%) and Sweden (49%) more positive. In all countries, a higher proportion said they thought Britain’s return was likely than did in 2021. British confidence in the future of the EU has also climbed markedly since just after the referendum. For the first time on record, more British respondents (41%) said they were optimistic about the bloc’s prospects than were pessimistic (36%).
There was less optimism, however, about Brexit’s impact on Britain’s economy. About 58% of UK respondents said in April that they thought the country’s exit from the EU would have a negative impact – up sharply from 50% two years ago. Respondents outside the UK were generally less pessimistic about the country’s prospects than those inside, and more likely to say that leaving the bloc would have no significant impact either way on Britain’s economic performance. Perhaps most startlingly, the data showed respondents in Britain are now also more likely – albeit by a narrow margin – to say they trust the European Commission (25%) more than they trust their own government (24%). Trust in the British government has crashed from a high of 40% in April 2021 – just after the UK’s successful early Covid vaccine rollout, and as lockdown restrictions were being eased – while trust in the commission has crept up since 2016.