The Labour party’s relentless pursuit of Tory switchers is in danger of backfiring badly. Keir Starmer’s praise of Margaret Thatcher in the Sunday Telegraph is a double danger – it wins over no wavering voters but risks losing the goodwill of a wide range of his supporters, old and new. The tactic of a foray into “enemy territory” is understandable. Labour’s turnaround from losing to a landslide in 2019 to being poised for its own landslide at the next election has been so fast it is in danger of causing political whiplash. But praising Thatcher, however mildly expressed and highly qualified, is a strategic misstep. How did Labour get here? In truth, because of one very good reason, and one really bad one. The good one is that Starmer and his team are absolutely focused on never taking any votes for granted. You hear this from members of Labour’s shadow cabinet, who say that they and the party aren’t complacent. This is what commentators call the “Ming vase” strategy – stewarding Labour’s double-digit poll lead is compared to walking down a highly polished wooden floor in socks while holding a priceless Chinese ceramic and trying desperately not to slip and fall. To adapt Tony Blair’s famous slogan – ask Starmer his three main priorities for opposition, and he’ll tell you: reassurance, reassurance, reassurance. After four defeats in 13 years – three of them in four years between 2015 and 2019 – that’s understandable. But it’s completely wrong. Labour has had a poll lead for two years. And the Tories under both Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak are consistently twice as unpopular as they were when Boris Johnson resigned because of Partygate. There is a settled will in the country that has been seen in recent byelections: voters want to exorcise the Tories. Now is the time for Starmer to be offering change. Plain and simple. No ifs, no buts, and certainly not any praise – however qualified – of any Tory prime minister. Just change. Labour is in danger of misreading the mood of voters – because it is listening to the wrong ones. This is the second, and really bad, reason for Starmer’s odd attempt to reassure the rusted-on Tory voters who read the Sunday Telegraph that he can say something nice about Thatcher. It happened because Starmer is listening to focus groups of swing voters. But the brutal truth is that there are no swing voters left – when support for the Tory party has fallen to 25%, there is no longer a pond to fish in. You’re convening groups of voters who are undecided whether to vote Tory, stay at home or opt for Nigel Farage and the Reform party. Sure they have views on what would make them listen to Labour – but they will never switch.
The priority for Starmer is to talk to the 45% of the voters he has won over and to reassure them that he is the change they want to see in the world of British politics. This was a perfect weekend to do that. Starmer has had a great week – a fluent and funny PMQs, followed by a successful trip to Cop28. Meanwhile, Sunak showed a pettiness to the Greek prime minister over the Parthenon sculptures – and had his Cop trip overshadowed by the half-Greek King Charles subtly taunting the prime minister with his tie. And yet another trip by Sunak in a private jet emphasised the hollowness of the current government’s commitment to get to net zero. Don’t interrupt your opponent when they’re making mistakes is an iron law of politics. Equally as important, don’t interrupt yourself when you are winning the argument. Just keep punching the bruise.
If this sounds like a prescription for negative campaigning, that’s because it is. And there’s a lot to be negative about – rising crime, increasing NHS waiting lists, soaring mortgage rates. Not all change elections are about hope – some are simply “chuck the rascals out” (stronger versions are available in pubs around the country). The Labour party has to channel that energy, that anger, and surf it – or else risk becoming the target of voters’ rage. The Canadian political strategist Gerry Butts argues that there is one key to electoral victory: “The main thing is to keep the main thing the main thing.” That’s why Starmer shouldn’t give the Tories any quarter. A simple two-line manifesto is all he needs: “Get them out. We will fix it.” “No complacency” is a crucial position for any political party. But the most dangerous complacency of all is to take your own voters for granted. None of the voters who are currently supporting Labour are wavering because they are worried that Starmer is insufficiently respectful of Margaret Thatcher. They want the Tories out. Labour needs to make that its rallying cry. John McTernan was political secretary to Tony Blair and is now a political strategist for BCW