Polls have opened in the Wellingborough and Kingswood byelections, seen as a final chance for Rishi Sunak to buck predictions that his party is heading for a landslide defeat at the next general election. The Conservatives are defending majorities of more than 18,000 in Wellingborough in Northants and 11,000 in Kingswood in South Gloucestershire. But Labour is expected to win both contests. The party has pulled off a string of byelection victories, gaining four Tory seats in a row since July. The byelection in Wellingborough was called after Peter Bone was successfully recalled by voters in the constituency in December. The parliamentary watchdog found he had broken the MPs’ code of conduct on four counts of bullying and one of sexual misconduct. The panel upheld an earlier report that found he had repeatedly hit and verbally abused a member of his staff, asked him for massages and on one occasion put his bare genitals in the other man’s face. Bone’s partner, Helen Harrison, was selected as the Conservative candidate for the byelection. In Kingswood, a byelection was called after Chris Skidmore, a leading Tory voice on green issues, resigned in protest against the government’s bill to allow new oil and gas licences to be issued.
The byelections come at a testing time for both main parties. Keir Starmer has had one of his most challenging weeks since becoming leader after two parliamentary candidates were suspended over comments relating to Israel. On Wednesday, a Savanta poll saw Labour’s lead over the Conservatives fall by seven points to its lowest level since June. Sunak came under fire last week for agreeing to a £1,000 bet – later rowed back on – with Piers Morgan on whether deportation flights to Rwanda will take off before the general election. He then drew widespread condemnation for deriding Labour’s policy on transgender rights at PMQs after being told that the mother of the murdered teenager Brianna Ghey was watching from the public gallery. The selection of Harrison as the Conservative candidate in Wellingborough has been a source of controversy. High-profile Tory MPs have been absent in the constituency and not a single frontbencher has endorsed Harrison. Last month, Sunak dodged the opportunity to endorse her after he was asked whether he was “proud” she was selected, given her connection to Bone. He said that it was up to local members to choose a candidate.
The Sunday Times reported that Bone had threatened to stand as an independent if the Tories did not include Harrison on their shortlist of candidates. Bone denied the report but said it would be “entirely unsurprising” if Harrison was selected. Both Labour byelection candidates are former London councillors. Gen Kitchen, running in Wellingborough, grew up in Northamptonshire and she went on to be a councillor in Newham, east London. Damien Egan, the candidate in Kingswood, grew up in the constituency. He resigned as the mayor of Lewisham in south-east London last month. The Tory candidate in Kingswood, Sam Bromiley, leads the party’s group on South Gloucestershire council. Bromiley said his experience as a youth worker would help him tackle crime among young people, promised to stop the Labour-led local council from “hacking into the greenbelt” and said he would work to regenerate the high street. A win for Labour would temper fears that a tough week for the party has significantly threatened its electoral prospects. A win for the Conservatives could give Sunak a lifeline and stave off any long-shot attempts by backbenchers on the right of the party to replace him before the general election.