The electoral asteroid is nearly upon us: Rishi Sunak presides over a government rejected by record numbers of voters in the polls. The Conservatives go into election day having lost more than half of their support, and polling more than 10 points below their worst ever previous result. No wonder that polls project a record swing to Labour, larger, by far, than in any previous postwar election. Some projections have the Tories falling below 100 seats – an extinction-level event for Britain’s oldest and most electorally successful party. Thursday looks set to be a night of historic political drama: here are the key things to look out for as the night goes on.
1 The exit poll and the early running: were the polls right? Is the exit poll right? The show begins at 10pm, when the polls close and the exit poll is published. This will give us a first sense of the scale of what is to come. If late swing or polling error is going to deliver a surprise, the exit poll is when we will first see it. Discussion of exit poll projections will dominate the early hours as politicians and pundits await the first results, and some will be sure to cast doubt as to accuracy. Ignore them. While no method is perfect, the exit poll has an excellent recent track record and can be trusted to chart the broad contours of the night to come.
The next big moments will come about midnight, when the first seats declare. The very first is likely to be in Sunderland, which has made fast counts a speciality in recent contests. The key things to watch for is how the swing and result compare to exit poll projections, and how Reform UK is doing. Cramlington and Killingworth, another early reporting north-east seat, is worth watching, as its predecessor, Blyth Valley, was the first “red wall” seat taken by the Tories in 2019, and will be the first brick in a rebuilt red wall for Labour this time. With polling suggesting weaker swings to Labour in the seats it already holds, the best early indicators will come from the trio of early-declaring Conservative seats. Swindon South is a classic swing seat, which Labour should take easily. Two others, Broxbourne, and Basildon and Billericay, provide sterner tests – each requires a swing of more than 20 points to take, substantially above the current polling averages. Losing either or both of these seats will be a bitter early blow for Conservatives and may be an early sign of a Labour landslide to come. 2 Red wall restoration? Will Labour recover seats lost to the Conservatives since 2015? The fall of the red wall was a bitter blow for Labour in 2019, as seat after seat turned against the party they had backed for generations. Recovering the lost heartlands is not just a matter of sentiment – Labour cannot win a majority without a rebuilt red wall. The early-to-declare red-wall seats are all near-certain to be Labour gains. But watch to see how high the majorities go when Leigh and Atherton, and then Darlington, declare earlier – this will give some hint about the scale of Labour’s recovery. Recovering Bolsover, the seat for nearly 50 years of leftwing firebrand Dennis Skinner, will be a particular morale boost for Labour leftwingers. But it will be victories in Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes, and in Scunthorpe, that will suggest Labour is on course to fully sweep the red wall, as these are seats where the Conservatives have larger notional majorities to defend. A win later in Bassetlaw would be the icing on the cake, meaning Labour had recovered the seat that saw the largest swing against them in 2019. The conclusion of the red wall story will come in Spen Valley after dawn. A win for Labour candidate Kim Leadbeater here will bring Keir Starmer’s recovery story full circle. It was Leadbeater’s narrow victory in the Batley and Spen byelection that steadied the Starmer ship in summer 2021, after a bruising set of local and byelection defeats had called his leadership into question. Now a second victory for Leadbeater in Spen Valley could help to complete the leader’s remarkable Labour comeback. 3 Tartan tides: Will Scotland fall to Labour too? One of the underdiscussed subplots of this election is the huge SNP-to-Labour swing in Scottish polling. This is as large as the swing south of the border and, with the SNP vote evenly spread, dozens of SNP seats are now on a knife-edge. Hamilton and Clyde Valley, which should declare before 2am, provides the first real test. Labour needs an eight-point swing and could be in for a disappointing night in Scotland if they fall short. A Labour win in East Kilbride and Strathaven, where they need a 13-point swing, will suggest big gains to come, while a win in Dundee Central, reporting after 2am, would suggest a Scottish earthquake is coming – this is the SNP’s safest seat.
Two Scottish subplots will develop later on. The first is the fate of seats contested between the Conservatives and the SNP. With both parties declining, but their opponents often weak and fragmented, these are hard seats to call. Some may end up as three-way or even four-way marginals, and surprise wins from third or even fourth place can’t be ruled out. The Lib Dems provide the other Scottish subplot. They are only in direct contention in a handful of Scottish seats, but have deep roots in parts of Scotland and would also dearly like to avenge the 2019 defeat of Jo Swinson by recovering Mid Dunbartonshire, the successor to the former leader’s East Dunbartonshire seat. 4 Will the blue wall fall to the Lib Dems? This election is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for the Liberal Democrats. Political geography, long their worst enemy, is finally working in their favour, as they start in second place to a flailing government in dozens of seats. They stand also to benefit from a helpful Labour party with an unthreatening leader, which should make it easier to maximise tactical voting and to win over Tory moderates voters spooked by Corbyn but now reassured by Starmer.
The first signs of Lib Dem progress will come about 2am, when two seats at opposite ends of England, Harrogate and Knaresborough, and Torbay, report. Both had Lib Dem MPs during the New Labour years, and the Lib Dems will hope to recover both this week. Torbay – Brexity and bluer – is the tougher task. We will learn if we are in for a more dramatic Lib Dem breakthrough after about 3am, when seats such as Stratford-on-Avon, Epsom and Ewell, and Witney report their results. These heartland seats have all reliably returned Tory MPs for a century or more – and all require big swings. Victory for the Lib Dems in David Cameron’s former seat of Witney would be a potent symbol of a possible revolt by home counties Tory stalwarts against the populist, Brexit-flavoured Conservatism of Cameron’s successors. 5 The Farage effect: where could Reform win outright and where will they tip the balance against the Tories? The return of Nigel Farage has upended this campaign, with a Reform UK bounce further damaging grim Tory prospects. Yet Reform’s support is too evenly spread, and the party’s organisation too weak, for Farage to gain many seats outright. Reform’s biggest impact will instead come through tipping the balance against the Conservatives in hundreds of seats. We can see this by looking at how many seats Labour alone gains at different levels of swing and different levels of Conservative-to-Reform switching. At each level of swing, Labour can make 100 or more extra seat gains if we move from a low to high rate of Conservative-to-Reform switching.
The scale of the defeat will depend heavily on the share of Conservative voters who end up in the Reform column. Castle Point will give an early indication – the Conservatives start with a huge majority here, but Ukip topped 30% in this heavily leave-voting seat. If either Reform or Labour wins here, it will suggest a Reform surge and a Tory slump are coming in heavily leave-voting areas. Mansfield, Norfolk North and Great Yarmouth will provide three tests of the Reform effect. Strong Reform performances could help Labour win Mansfield and the Lib Dems win Norfolk North, and turn Great Yarmouth into a three-way marginal. Reform won’t win many seats but could win a few. Clacton is the likeliest gain, with polling suggesting Nigel Farage will finally win a Commons seat at the eighth attempt. Boston and Skegness, where Farage’s predecessor, Richard Tice, is standing, is another prospect, as is Ashfield, where Tory-to-Reform defector Lee Anderson faces a chaotic local dogfight with Labour and the popular independent council leader Jason Zadrozny. It is also worth watching how Reform do in Barnsley – the only place where the Brexit party came second in 2019. 6 Red and blue breakthroughs for the Greens? While Reform will be the smaller party making the biggest waves in this contest, advances for the Greens could be a sign of disruptions to come. The Greens are targeting four seats. They are looking to hold off a Labour challenge in Brighton Pavilion, where the first Green MP, Caroline Lucas, is standing down, and defeat Labour in Bristol Central, where Green co-leader Carla Denyer is running against Labour shadow cabinet minister Thangam Debbonaire. The Greens are also targeting two deep-blue rural seats – Waveney Valley and North Herefordshire. Both constituency polls and MRP models suggest they are in with a strong chance in all four contests. The Greens will also hope to build a platform for future success with strong second places in other seats where local support is strong. Keep an eye on results in the Isle of Wight, Sheffield and in central London and Manchester seats. None are likely to fall to the Greens, but second-place finishes could set them up as contenders in contests to come. 7 Trouble in Labour’s backyard? Keir Starmer faces some tricky defences in Labour’s backyard, particularly in seats with large Muslim electorates or high-profile independents. George Galloway mobilised unrest over the Gaza conflict among Muslim voters to take Rochdale from Labour in a byelection earlier this spring. Labour will dearly hope to retake the seat from Galloway in the rematch. Labour is also fighting off challenges from Galloway’s Workers Party of Britain and Galloway-aligned independents in seats with large Muslim communities such as Birmingham Ladywood, where Akhmed Yakoob hopes to unseat Labour shadow cabinet minister Shabana Mahmood. Then there is the messy contest in Leicester East, the seat with the largest Hindu electorate in Britain. Two former Labour MPs, Keith Vaz and Claudia Webbe, are standing against their former party, while Labour also faces a threat from resurgent local Conservatives, who made major gains in Leicester in 2023 local elections. This seat, along with two outer London seats – Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner and Harrow East – are worth watching to see if Rishi Sunak’s rise as the first ever Hindu prime minister has accelerated a long-term drift towards the Conservatives among Hindu voters. Finally, in Islington North, Labour faces a unique challenge, when Keir Starmer’s predecessor as Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn, challenges his former party in the seat he represented for more than 40 years, mostly as a Labour MP. 8 Return of New Labour? Seats Blair won in 1997 that Starmer could win back To what extent will Starmer’s win be a restoration of the 1997 Blair ascendancy? There are 199 seats which Blair would have won on current boundaries in 1997 and which Labour does not currently hold. If polling proves accurate, Starmer could regain 150 or more of these lost New Labour seats.
The first big test of Starmer’s recovery in middle England will come when Swindon North reports before 2am. The seat backed Blair three times and has swung heavily to the Tories since. Labour needs a 14-point swing to recover it. Cannock Chase provides an even bigger test. This Staffordshire seat has proved to be one of the swingiest in the country, going from a 55% Labour vote in 1997 to a near 70% Conservative vote in 2019. If Labour wins here, it will suggest Keir Starmer has won back the hearts of middle England – or is at least benefiting from a total Tory rejection in Blair’s old heartlands. Keep an eye out later in the night for results from classic suburban and small town bellwethers such as Crawley, Romford, Dudley and Nuneaton. Blair won them all and if Starmer is going on to match his predecessor, so should he. Tamworth, which Labour lost after Blair and won back on a huge swing in a recent byelection, is another seat to watch. 9 Bigger than Blair? Seats Starmer could win which never backed New Labour With Keir Starmer projected to achieve the largest swing in postwar history, Labour can set their sights higher than even the landslide victory of 1997, targeting seats which Blair never won but which demographic change, and exceptional polling, make winnable next week. The first signs that Starmer may be advancing into uncharted territory will come between 2am and 3am, when North West Cambridgeshire and Aldershot declare. Neither has ever elected a Labour MP, and both require very large swings, but most MRP models now favour the opposition in both. Labour could also take the once true-blue seats of Blair-era Tory big beasts, including Ken Clarke’s Rushcliffe and John Major’s Huntingdon.
If Labour also manages to hold Mid Bedfordshire, which they took on a massive swing in a byelection, and gain places such as Isle of Wight West or Bexhill and Battle, which have never returned Labour MPs before, then we will probably be on course for a “bigger than Blair” majority as the Conservative retreat turns into a rout. 10 ‘A new dawn has broken, has it not?’ How low could the Tories go? The broad outlines of the electoral landscape will be clear well before dawn. While the scale and scope of a probable Labour victory settled, two questions will remain: how many Conservatives will survive? And who will be the “big beasts” of the outgoing government whose defeat will provide the “Portillo moments” of this election night? If the swings in this election become very large, the fate of many Conservative MPs may turn on the ability of voters in very safe Tory seats to coalesce behind a single opponent in seats where the tactical voting signals are not clear. A total Tory wipeout becomes plausible if Liberal Democrats can perform as well as Labour at very high levels of overall swing. But if – as is perhaps more likely – tactical voting rates are weaker in very safe Tory seats with split opposition, then dozens of Conservatives may survive even if their party’s national vote collapses.
Portillo moments won’t be hard to find next week. With a historically unprecedented swing expected, the list of high-profile MPs at risk is long. Defeat looks all but certain for former Conservative leader Iain Duncan Smith and self-styled Brexit hardman Steve Baker, while losses for serial cabinet minister and leadership hopeful Grant Shapps or chancellor Jeremy Hunt will not come as a surprise – most pollsters project them to lose. The true Portillo moment combines shock and gravity – a big beast felled unexpectedly in a seat thought to be safe, sending shockwaves through the party ranks. The loss of Hunt, a serving chancellor, would be a bitter blow but not a surprising one. Losses for Robert Jenrick (Newark) or Penny Mordaunt (Portsmouth North) would be more consequential, reshaping the leadership contest to come. Defeat for polarising GB News favourites such as Jacob Rees-Mogg (North East Somerset and Hanham) and Esther McVey (Tatton) will dismay the right and delight the left. With unprecedented swings on the cards, there is even an outside chance that this election count could deliver the ultimate Portillo moment – the defeat of a current or former prime minister. Both Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss have daunting majorities, but Sunak has felt vulnerable enough to send activists to his own seat, while the ever-unpopular Truss could underperform her own party if angry local voters mobilise against her. Sunak’s seat is due to report first. If he manages to survive, then it may perhaps fall to Truss to symbolise the Conservatives’ election night with the same quality that defined her premiership: spectacular and unprecedented political failure. Robert Ford is professor of political science at Manchester University and co-author of The British General Election of 2019