Conservative politicians have started to be seen as “weird”, and few members of the public – even including the party’s own voters – are able to identify the Tory leadership candidates, research suggests. Asked who had the best chance of winning the next election for the Tories, 70% of respondents either said they did not know or that they thought none of the candidates could win – with James Cleverly given the greatest chance, on 8%, followed by Priti Patel. Multiple focus groups of former Tory voters suggested that those who switched their vote at the last election were not inclined to back to the Conservatives any time soon. The research by More in Common said the party struggled with relatability, particularly in Liberal Democrat areas, by focusing on topics “which excite the base, or the highly politically engaged” but were distant from ordinary people’s lives. In a similar vein to the attack that US Democrats have levelled against Republicans, especially the vice-presidential candidate JD Vance, the research found “there is a danger that the Conservatives have started to become seen as ‘weird’”.
It said that in seats won by the Lib Dems “voters would explain that they were voting Lib Dem in these traditionally Tory strongholds because Ed Davey’s party just seemed more ‘normal’”. The focus groups took place in July and August in constituencies including Surrey Heath, South Basildon and East Thurrock, Rother Valley, Henley and Great Yarmouth.
The research also included polling of the general public that found that Patel, a former home secretary, was the only candidate more than half of people could correctly identify from a photo. Even among those who voted for the Conservatives this year, Patel, Cleverly and Kemi Badenoch were the only candidates more than half could correctly identify. Of the candidates who were introduced to the focus groups, which were shown video clips, Badenoch, a former business secretary, performed best with those who switched to the Lib Dems and Reform, with the highest number saying they would be willing to give her a hearing and that she offered something “new and different and refreshing”. However, the candidate who was most liked by the group was Cleverly, another former home secretary, his ordinary background contrasting with that of the multimillionaire Rishi Sunak. Participants described him as “friendly, plain-speaking and approachable and [he] seemed to have a laid-back character”, though a few participants were turned off by what they had heard as him having a reputation for off-colour jokes. The former immigration minister Robert Jenrick, seen in Westminster as one of the frontrunners to become Tory leader, received a relatively poor reception, described as “smug” “slimy” or “wooden”, although some who switched to Reform said they agreed with his messaging. Patel, though the most recognisable candidate, was also seen as one of the most divisive, with many focus group participants suggesting she had too much baggage, though she was praised by some Reform switchers. The former security minister Tom Tugendhat also received a reasonably positive reception, ranked as the most “prime ministerial” and as having more gravitas than any of the other candidates. He was particularly popular with those who switched to Labour and the Lib Dems and his military service was popular with Reform voters.