The Conservative party is quietly pouring extra resources into dozens of Tory-held seats deemed at risk at the next general election, including one with a 17,000 majority. As many as 200 constituencies held by Conservative MPs have been marked as vulnerable and worthy of extra support from party HQ, including Weston-super-Mare in Somerset. The seaside town has been held since 2005 by the Conservative MP John Penrose, who was re-elected in 2019 with a majority of 17,121. It demonstrates that the Conservative party is taking a significantly more defensive approach to the election than it has admitted publicly, and that hitherto safe seats with sizeable majorities are now deemed at risk. The Tories have long officially pursued an 80:20 election strategy, focused on defending their 80 most marginal seats and aiming to win 20 target seats from the opposition.
But the number of Tory constituencies marked as vulnerable and given extra support has risen from 80 to about 200 in recent months, according to a senior party source. It means the party is extending its defensive strategy to seats with hefty majorities of 15,000 or more. The party did not deny the 200-seat figure. A spokesperson said: “Only the Conservatives have a plan to deliver for the country and that’s why we are supporting all our MPs and candidates across the country.” A party official stressed that its 80:20 list had always been flexible. They said that as well as seats getting more defensive resources, more target seats had been added in Scotland, where the Conservative party believed it was in the strongest position to defeat the Scottish National party. “It’s never, ever been rigid. They don’t tell you the seats that are most important,” another senior party figure said. The additional resources given to constituencies singled out under the 80:20 strategy include printed campaign material and digital support. At a briefing with Conservative MPs last year, the US pollster Frank Luntz warned that those with a majority of less than 15,000 were at risk of losing their seats. About 180 Tory MPs have majorities below that threshold. Cabinet ministers with majorities of 16,000 or less include the justice secretary, Alex Chalk, the chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, the Commons leader, Penny Mordaunt, and the defence secretary, Grant Shapps. A Tory source familiar with internal party processes said while the 80:20 strategy was a useful fundraising tool, in reality the party was likely to be pursuing a “100% defence strategy”.
The Conservatives suffered heavy losses at the local elections in England earlier in May. The party lost 515 councillors, ceded control of 10 councils and was defeated in the West Midlands and the York and North Yorkshire mayoral contests. Labour has pointed to the wide range of places where it made gains, including the East Midlands, Yorkshire and Essex, as evidence that it was on track to perform well in a general election. Rishi Sunak has said the results show the country is on course for a hung parliament. Isaac Levido, the Australian political strategist who is masterminding the Conservative campaign, presented his assessment to cabinet last week and argued that the election would be closer than the polls suggested.
But independent pollsters including John Curtice say Labour is on course to win a majority. A YouGov poll last week gave Labour a 30-point poll lead, its largest since Liz Truss was prime minister. A grassroots survey by the ConservativeHome website found that two-thirds of members thought the party should not target any opposition-held seats and instead be focused on holding as much ground as possible. Since the 2019 election, the Conservatives’ majority has been reduced from 80 to just 38 after a series of defections and byelections. • This article was amended on 13 May 2024. An earlier version listed the names of cabinet ministers with majorities of “15,000 or less”. This has been amended to 16,000 or less, to reflect Penny Mordaunt’s majority of 15,780.