The Augustinian message “Lord, make us green, but not yet” was the basis of Rishi Sunak’s announcement last week of his package of proposals to delay and water down Britain’s policies to achieve net zero carbon emissions. Supporters of the stance believe the recent Uxbridge byelection upset has revealed a valuable new electoral dividing line: voters who are keen on carbon-cutting in theory become much less keen when the bill arrives. By pushing everything costly further into the future, the Conservatives can win back disaffected voters by rousing latent fears of their big-spending Labour opponents. That is the theory. Does it stack up? Sunak demonstrated one remaining strength of a fading, unpopular government: the ability to set the agenda. His proposals led every broadcast and front page, and diverted the entire political conversation on to new terrain. And there are promising signs in the polling. While large majorities, including most Conservatives, back net zero pledges in principle, specific policies are indeed less popular. British voters are not keen on bans on fossil fuel vehicles and gas boilers, and new taxes on flights or gas for heating are unpopular. The more direct and immediate the cost of green policies, the less voters like them. The Uxbridge result also fits this pattern. The extension of London’s ultra low emissions zone (Ulez) to London’s outer boroughs was due to come into force just weeks after voters went to the polls. The imminent costs of Ulez were at the front of Uxbridge voters’ minds when they went to the polls – many faced concrete costs or knew someone who would. The problem for Sunak’s government is the policies they are changing didn’t represent the same danger to voters’ wallets. Sunak’s plan requires focusing their attention on notional savings arriving many years hence rather than the bills and troubles they face now. This is possible – imagined fears have real power in politics – but not easy. Voting Conservative to protest at having to scrap your car next month is one thing. Voting Conservative to ensure a broader choice of cars in 10 years is quite another.
For the net zero punt to be electorally profitable, the Tories must hope that green grumblers are more responsive to their campaign than net zero enthusiasts. This is uncertain. Green principles are popular, and most voters do not believe the government is doing enough to live up to them. Data from the British Social Attitudes survey reveals the most economically and socially progressive public in decades. Watering down environmental commitments risks damaging an already battered Conservative brand by painting the party as beholden to unrepresentative, destructive business interests. The desire for a green dividing line with Labour may also be premised on a misreading of electoral geography. Many Conservatives enthused by the new approach believe it will play well with the mythical “red wall” voter – the working-class Midlands van driver worried about bills and (like David Cameron) eager to ditch “green crap”. But most Conservative MPs do not represent such seats or rely on such voters, as James Kanagasooriam, inventor of the “red wall” concept, pointed out last week.
Far more Conservative MPs represent suburban or rural southern England seats, where the backbone of their electorate remains older, well-off, middle-class homeowners. They are more likely than their red wall colleagues to see the environment as a top political priority. Graduate professionals anxious about climate change and angry about river and beach pollution may see this as the last straw. Many Conservative MPs in the “blue wall” will worry that the prime minister’s rightward move on climate change has handed their opponents a potent new weapon. Governing parties 20 points behind in the polls need to gamble. Sunak will hope his approach opens up dividing lines to exploit voter anxieties about Labour on taxation and spending. But most long-odds bets don’t come off. Conservatives were jubilant when Sunak put all his political capital behind a campaign to “stop the boats”. Nine months of campaigning have had no discernible impact on dire poll numbers. Perhaps a campaign on a less immediate and contentious issue will succeed. Or Sunak’s crusade against imaginary bins and meat taxes will end up as just another footnote in political history. As the airwaves fill with argument over this initiative, we will all do well to remember the dictum of Conservative PM Arthur Balfour: “Nothing matters very much, and most things don’t matter at all.” Robert Ford is professor of political science at Manchester University and co-author of The British General Election of 2019