Rishi Sunak has said the general election result is not a “foregone conclusion” despite disastrous local election results and the Tories struggling to close the gap with Labour in the polls. The prime minister said he was “absolutely determined to fight” in the run-up to polling day to show the government was making a difference to people’s lives on issues including the economy and migration. Despite Tory plotters warning that a poor set of local results could be a moment of peak danger for Sunak, Tory rebels have laid down their arms after admitting they have not persuaded enough MPs to join them to force a vote of confidence in his leadership. Yet many of Sunak’s MPs are despondent about the party’s chances of retaining power at the general election, expected this autumn, despite the government’s attempts to spin the local results as showing a hung parliament is likely.
The prime minister’s comments came after he seized on analysis by the polling expert Michael Thrasher over the weekend that claimed the local results showed Labour only had a nine-point lead. Other leading figures have cautioned against reading too much into local election data, however. Prof Sir John Curtice, the pre-eminent psephologist, said on Monday: “We decided not to do it, frankly, partly because it wasn’t necessarily the most reliable piece of information.” Ben Page, the chief executive of Ipsos, was more direct about the prospect of a hung parliament, saying: “I think it’s for the birds.” During a visit to a community centre in north London on Sunday, Sunak doubled down on his theory that no individual party would hold a majority after the election – the first time he has admitted the Tories may not win outright. “The independent analysis shows that whilst of course this was a disappointing weekend for us, the result of the next general election isn’t a foregone conclusion and indeed actually … the situation is closer than many people are saying or indeed some of the opinion polls are predicting.” He added: “That’s why I’m absolutely determined to fight incredibly hard for what I believe and for the future country that I want to build, and that’s what I’m going to do. I’m determined more than ever to demonstrate to the country that we are making progress on the areas that matter to them and we are going to deliver for them.” Sunak ducked questions about Tory MPs urging him to move rightwards to win back voters, after his former home secretary Suella Braverman said his “plan is not working” and he had to change course or the party would face wipeout at the election. “What unites all members of our party, MPs and beyond, are our values as Conservatives and the type of country that we want to build,” the prime minister said. Sunak will this week attempt to get back on the front foot, highlighting a series of economic announcements including that the UK is expected to emerge from recession, which he hopes will show that the economy is finally turning a corner. • This article was amended on 7 May 2024. Ben Page is the chief executive of Ipsos’s global operations, not Ipsos Mori, the UK division of the company which dropped the Mori part of its name in 2022.