Senior Tories fear Rishi Sunak is facing a vicious circle of party ill-discipline, amid concerns that attacks from Boris Johnson, Liz Truss and Suella Braverman will signal his inability to restore authority in the months before the general election. A rebellion this week over his plans to ban smoking is set to be the latest flashpoint, with libertarian MPs, including Truss, preparing to criticise the proposal as a nanny-state measure that is unconservative.
There is already anger among Sunak’s allies at Johnson, who has made a series of criticisms over the past week, despite hopes that the relationship between the two men had thawed. One said the former prime minister remained a “bitter, twisted and vengeful” figure after Johnson attacked the foreign secretary, David Cameron, for failing to rule out banning arms sales to Israel and described Sunak’s plan for a gradual smoking ban as “absolutely nuts”. During an appearance in the US, Johnson also refused to rule out a political comeback and a return to the Commons, only saying he did not think it was likely in “the short term”. The comments came after hopes that Johnson might be willing to help the party campaign by the autumn. With the publication this week of Truss’s book Ten Years to Save the West and the scheduled appearance of Braverman at a rightwing convention in Brussels, more criticisms are likely to hit Sunak as MPs return to the Commons from their Easter break – just weeks before what look likely to be brutal local elections for the Tories. It has caused alarm within the Tory ranks that the discipline the party once boasted about as its secret weapon has not returned, despite the approach of the general election. Senior MPs are blaming a fatal loss of authority in Downing Street, characterised last week by Sunak’s refusal to withdraw the whip from an MP who, in effect, called on voters in Ashfield to vote for Lee Anderson, the ex-Tory MP who defected to Reform UK, formerly the Brexit party. Nick Fletcher, the MP for Don Valley, endorsed Anderson as Ashfield’s “greatest champion”, suggesting he needed to be back in Westminster after the election. Endorsing rival candidates is forbidden under Tory party rules, but no action was taken against him. One senior Tory said it was a sign of No 10 not having “the authority that it needs”, risking a downward spiral as the election approached. “Authority is so weak, we’re so close to the end of the parliament, people think that tilting towards Reform might save their seats,” they said. “Discipline breaks down because discipline breaks down. It’s a feedback loop.”
Some senior figures hope that the increasing scrutiny on Labour as the election approaches will become a “unifying force” for the Tories, given that only the prospect of Keir Starmer becoming prime minister is potent enough to unite the warring factions. Sunak is pinning his political hopes on an economic recovery, combined with another round of tax cuts in an autumn statement held shortly before voters are expected to go to the polls. Inflation figures this week, as well as the expected passing of the Rwanda legislation allowing asylum seekers to be flown to the east African country, could help him start that recovery. However, the passing of the Rwanda bill brings a potential clash with the European convention on human rights (ECHR) a step closer – and another party split over humanitarian concerns. Many in the party are braced for a huge battle before the election over whether or not Sunak will pledge to leave the ECHR as part of the next election manifesto. It has become the defining issue and a red line for the party’s liberal wing. Most suspect Sunak will back away from such a move, instead opting for reform to the convention and a warning that leaves open the possibility of withdrawing. “There is a majority for both staying in and some quite hardball negotiating,” said one figure on the liberal wing. “That doesn’t feel like it’s a controversial opinion any more. The question for the manifesto is: does it say ‘we will renegotiate our position on the ECHR – and if we fail, we’ll leave’? How hard do you go? This is the million-dollar question.”