After a bracingly close result that raises fundamental questions about the core priorities of the wider party membership, Humza Yousaf begins his tenure as the Scottish National party’s first ethnic minority leader, and soon to be first Muslim first minister of Scotland, with a distinct set of challenges. Immediately after the leadership announcement, there was evident relief particularly from those younger, progressive activists who had dreaded the success of the socially and fiscally conservative Kate Forbes. Campaign groups such as Back Off Scotland, which presses for protest-free buffer zones outside abortion clinics, tweeted their approval. But others made plain their consternation that such a sizeable chunk of their fellow members were willing to set aside Forbes’ personal opposition to equal marriage and abortion, for example, in order to vote for her “reset” platform. Two-fifths of SNP members on first preferences were convinced by a candidate who was highly critical of Nicola Sturgeon’s record, challenging the outgoing first minister’s model of progressive taxation and the speed of transition away from oil and gas exploration.
More than 50% of first preferences votes were for candidates – Forbes and third-placed Ash Regan – who were relaxed about ditching the governing partnership with the Scottish Greens. The question remains: to what extent does the wider membership subscribe to Nicola Sturgeon’s progressive consensus, and what does “progressive” mean to them? While garnering the majority of parliamentary endorsements from councillors, MSPs and MPs, Yousaf fell short of a whole-hearted endorsement from the wider membership and as such has work to do now to earn their trust. As much as the Scottish Labour leader, Anas Sarwar, decries Yousaf’s lack of electoral mandate, his mandate within the party itself is also slim. Forbes made it clear in her remarks following the announcement that Yousaf needs to listen to those members who supported her and Regan – while it remains to be seen whether Forbes, should she remain in cabinet, would support his plans for wealth taxes. But more engaged activists suggest that, while Forbes benefited from name recognition with the wider membership, those who have had the opportunity to work more closely with Yousaf also respect him. One experienced activist explained: “I’ve seen him step in to help with internal party issues over the years when he didn’t have to, because he cared about people being treated fairly. As an equalities activist I’ve never had to explain why something mattered. Working with him you realise he’s very on the ball and far from the buffoonish media caricature.” With both Yousaf and Forbes calling for a switch from process to policy on independence strategy, one in 10 SNP members on first preferences were attracted to Regan’s more immediate plans for a referendum, the cohort who have been repeatedly frustrated by Sturgeon’s repeated promises to hold another vote. An hour after the result, Alex Salmond’s Alba party launched a recruitment drive based around Forbes’ slogan “continuity won’t cut it”. Yousaf must convince members that his gradualist approach is not more of the same – and instantly pledged to ask the UK government for the required section 30 order to hold a fresh referendum, a performative gesture given the certainty Westminster would refuse. Having styled himself as the continuity candidate, what has emerged from the contest is how much needs to change inside the party. The campaign has signalled the end of “wheesht for indy” – all-pervasive internal discipline that meant frustrations about party management or policy were cut off in order to maintain focus on the main prize. The resignation of the SNP chief executive, Peter Murrell – Sturgeon’s husband – in a damaging transparency row over membership figures brought other concerns into the open about imposition of HQ-approved candidates, poor handling of harassment complaints and member consultation. There is now a clamour for reform, which Yousaf must heed alongside an overflowing in-tray in government – including huge pressure on the first minister’s £60bn annual budget, record NHS waiting lists and looming emissions targets. By mid-April, he must also decide whether to contest the UK government’s block on Holyrood’s gender recognition bill. Just as pressingly, Yousaf needs to imprint himself on the minds of voters beyond his SNP base, many of whom will be more familiar with criticisms of his record as health minister and capacity for gaffes, after the latest Ipsos Scotland polling found that his predecessor remains far more popular than any of the three candidates who were vying to succeed her, and that Forbes is more popular with general voters. Despite the relentless racist and Islamophobic abuse he has encountered since he entered public life, Yousaf told the Guardian recently he believes fundamentally that Scotland is a progressive country. Just as Sturgeon spoke of the significance for girls and young woman across the country when she was elected first minister in 2014, Yousaf’s acceptance speech included an invitation to pause and absorb the significance of this moment as the grandson of Muslim migrants from Pakistan steps up to the highest office.