Next week is set to be a crucial one in Scottish politics, most notably for the future of Nicola Sturgeon, the Scottish first minister, SNP leader, and figurehead for much of the Scottish independence campaign. What has just happened? A cross-party inquiry of MSPs into the Scottish government’s handling of allegations of sexual misconduct against Alex Salmond while he was first minister is due to report next week. However, it has emerged through leaks that the committee has concluded, by a narrow majority vote, that Sturgeon misled the Scottish parliament by giving an “inaccurate” account of her meetings with Salmond in 2018 during evidence on oath to a committee of MSPs earlier this month. What happens now? The final report is expected on Tuesday, the day before Holyrood is dissolved before elections in May. However, the crucial verdict for Sturgeon is likely to be in a separate inquiry being led by James Hamilton QC, Ireland’s former director of public prosecutions, into whether she breached the ministerial code, either by interfering in the process of the investigations into Salmond, or by knowingly misleading parliament. If the Hamilton inquiry finds this to be the case, Sturgeon will be under intense pressure to step down. The Hamilton report is expected soon. What is the difference between the two reports? They are different in remit and in composition. The Holyrood report, as recently leaked, examines the way complaints about Salmond were dealt with in the Scottish government. It seems that the nine-MSP committee was split on party lines, with its four SNP members, including the committee chair Linda Fabiani, voting that Sturgeon did not mislead parliament, while the five opposition members – two Conservatives, and one each from Labour, the Liberal Democrats and an independent – voted that she did. In contrast, Hamilton’s report is about the narrow question of whether Sturgeon breached the ministerial code, and is a politically independent process. Sturgeon referred herself over this matter. What has Sturgeon’s response been? She is insisting she was truthful when she gave evidence to the parliamentary committee at the start of this month. She told Sky News that the opposition MSPs “made their minds up before I uttered a single word of evidence”, saying she had been targeted by a “very partisan leak”, and that she would await Hamilton’s findings.
What are the possible outcomes? Much depends on the details of the reports, and the wider political landscape and repercussions. However, the consensus is that Sturgeon will be in much graver peril if Hamilton’s report concludes any misleading of parliament was deliberate, or there was another breach of the ministerial code. If this happens, she will face intense pressure to resign. What is the controversy about? In August 2018, news leaked that the Scottish government had investigated two allegations of sexual misconduct against Alex Salmond while he was first minister. Its findings were passed to Police Scotland, which launched its own investigation. Salmond denied the allegations, resigned from the Scottish National party, and immediately took the Scottish government to court, accusing it of abuse of process. In January 2019, the court of session in Edinburgh ruled the government inquiry was unlawful because the lead investigator had had prior contact with the complainers. Leslie Evans, the permanent secretary, agreed it was “tainted by apparent bias”. What did Sturgeon say about this? She said she spoke to Salmond about the government inquiry five times while it was under way, including meetings at her home, and failed to tell Evans she had done so until hours before her third conversation, potentially in breach of the ministerial code. She also failed to tell parliament she had met one of Salmond’s former aides in her Holyrood office on 29 March 2018, when she is said to have first been told he was under investigation – another potential breach of the code.