The overwhelming majority of voters are not confident that the government can successfully tackle and reduce crime, according to a new poll which suggests that a crippling lack of trust is damaging Rishi Sunak’s attempts to revive Tory fortunes. Both main parties have been prioritising pledges to tackle low-level crime and antisocial behaviour ahead of local elections in May. However, the latest Opinium poll for the Observer revealed that only 20% of voters have confidence in the government to successfully tackle and reduce crime, while 71% are not confident. Only 27% have confidence in the courts and justice system to reduce crime and only 31% have confidence in the police to tackle and reduce crime. The poll found that Labour continues to lead on crime, with 30% trusting a government led by Keir Starmer over a Tory government led by Sunak. However, the pollster found that Labour leads on most issues, so its six-point advantage on crime makes it one of the closer issues. Crime is currently the sixth most important issue, behind health, the economy, energy, immigration and housing. It comes after the government announced plans to force offenders guilty of crimes such as vandalism to wear jumpsuits or hi-vis jackets and start repairing the damage they caused within two days of receiving their punishment. The “immediate justice” plans were part of an antisocial behaviour strategy. However, a serious loss of trust appears to have become a significant electoral barrier to a Conservative revival. Among those who backed the Tories at the last election who no longer plan to vote Conservative, 52% say the main reason is that they have lost trust in the party – significantly larger than any other answer. Another 16% say a key reason is that they are running the country poorly. Similarly, among the smaller group who have directly switched from the Conservatives to Labour, 48% say they have done so because they trust Labour more than the Conservatives.
The polling found that antisocial behaviour came sixth in the list of crimes the public want the UK government to prioritise. Although 55% think the possession of nitrous oxide should be illegal – a move the government has backed – 56% think that a ban will not succeed in reducing antisocial behaviour in public. “Generally, Labour are ahead on vote share because of the cost of living situation and an absolute cratering of trust in the Conservative party,” said Adam Drummond, associate director at Opinium. “This means that, even though the public’s instincts on tackling crime line up more with what they think the Tories want than what they think Labour would do, the government is struggling to get traction because voters don’t believe they are capable of improving things.