A million more cars could be on the road in England and Wales each day if public transport commuters with cars switch to driving, research has warned. The government has told the public to avoid buses, trams and trains and to walk, cycle or drive instead, with some estimates suggesting public transport capacity will be cut to a sixth or less of its former rate to accommodate physical distancing. Research from Rachel Aldred, a professor of transport at Westminster University’s active travel academy, says that unless local authorities make it significantly easier and more pleasant to cycle to work safely, the percentage of people who drive to work will increase from 60% to 70%, with an estimated 1.06m more cars on the road. However, the analysis also found that with rapid changes to road layouts and new policies to make walking and cycling safer and more attractive, up to half of all public transport journeys – those of 10km (6.2 miles) or less – could be made by bike or on foot, resulting in up to 2m more active journeys than before the pandemic. Such a big switch would aid physical distancing, and the increase in physical exercise alone would avert at least 500 premature deaths annually. Such a move would also prevent a post-lockdown rise in carbon emissions that could jeopardise climate change goals. Last month the government announced £225m for local authorities in England to create pop-up cycle lanes with protected space for cycling, wider pavements, safer junctions, and bike and bus-only corridors. On Wednesday it also announced that from 22 June, local authorities will have new powers to use CCTV to issue penalty charge notices to drivers who park or load illegally in mandatory cycle lanes – those demarcated with a solid white line, meaning motorists are not allowed to enter – thus putting cyclists at risk of a serious accident. Some councils have already announced ambitious plans to get people cycling and walking during the pandemic, while others have been paralysed by infighting. The West Midlands combined authority said on Tuesday it was spending £3.4m on various temporary measures, including a pop-up cycle lane from Coventry city centre to Birmingham canal basin and shutting much of Wolverhampton city centre to cars. Leicester has introduced a key workers corridor for people cycling to work and Transport for London recently announced a new protected bike lane on Euston Road. In Greater Manchester, a row kicked off at the weekend after it emerged Manchester city council had refused to build any pop-up cycle lanes to help commuters from the surrounding nine districts get into the city and was instead concentrating on pedestrianising parts of the centre. The Guardian understands that the nine boroughs all want to install segregated bike lanes on key routes into Manchester, but that the city council’s refusal to cooperate means they all stop abruptly at the Manchester border. Andrew Gwynne, the MP for Denton and Reddish – which straddles the Greater Manchester boroughs of Tameside and Stockport – has accused the city council of “endangering lives and potentially increasing air pollution” by refusing to help people cycling in to Manchester from those districts. On Friday the city council said it did not support temporary cycling infrastructure, saying: “Long-term, sustainable modal shift to bikes is best supported through investment in creating safe, durable cycling infrastructure.” But on Wednesday it softened its position, saying: “Where neighbouring local authorities are planning to create temporary pop-up cycle lanes which approach Manchester, the council will work with partners in each case, to ensure that safety for all road users is prioritised.” At his weekly press conference on Wednesday. Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester, said the region had submitted a £21.5m bid to the government for temporary measures to improve walking and cycling, including 200km of pop-up bike lanes, 94km of which are on “strategic routes”.