“Nicola Sturgeon was the be-all and end-all for the SNP” was how Aisha, an insurance worker, explained why she was wavering about whether to stick with the Scottish National party or switch her backing to Labour in the general election. In doing so, she summed up the mood of a group of eight undecided voters in the Edinburgh North and Leith constituency facing the competing pressures of wanting to ensure a strong voice for Scotland in Westminster, exhaustion with the SNP’s travails of the past year, and questions over what Labour would actually do in office. Above all, these voters wanted to see a change of government. But they were conflicted about how their vote could best bring that change about. All of the group felt the Conservatives simply hadn’t delivered for Scotland and deserved to be voted out. Asa, who works in banking, said he felt Rishi Sunak was “trying to run the worst possible campaign”. Sandy reflected a common complaint about the prime minister that “he just doesn’t know how to show empathy”. The group were even more scathing about Douglas Ross, the Scottish Tory leader. Speaking about his decision to announce he would stand down after the election, they said he was “abandoning a sinking ship”, while Darren, a trainer, said: “Douglas Ross would be the top of the list of people that I could nae trust.” Others, including Dorota, a facility manager, contrasted Ross unfavourably with the “more human” Ruth Davidson, his predecessor as the Scottish Conservative leader. But their complaints weren’t limited to the Tories. There was no doubt the group were disappointed with the SNP’s performance over the last year, which they described as “one scandal after another”. Asa said: “They’re just fatigued. It’s just like they’ve been there for so long.” Across the group there was a feeling Scotland’s governing party had questions to answer over the state of public services and putting Scottish independence – to which they were sympathetic – before anything else. Laura, who works for a cleaning company, put it like this: “If they can’t get the basics like the NHS right, then nobody’s going to put any trust in them to make the big steps.” Andy, a waste management worker, went further in saying: “Time they spend on independence is almost wasted time. Because if they let public services fall apart, people will say that the SNP can’t even run a country.” The sense that Scotland was drifting was compounded by what they saw as an SNP talent gap. “There’s nothing there to inspire us. Ever since Nicola [Sturgeon] we’ve not had somebody that’s inspirational at all,” said Pamela, who works in financial services. The new first minister, John Swinney, was seen by the group as “yesterday’s man”, “just not really anything”, and someone who “didn’t cut the mark”. Humza Yousaf’s brief tenure was barely mentioned at all.
There was, however, one SNP figure who had seriously impressed this group: the party’s Westminster leader, Stephen Flynn, whom they variously described as “really impressive” and “ticking all the boxes”. They agreed that “the SNP would be faring far better if he were first minister”. In fact, this was the most positive a focus group has been about an individual politician throughout this campaign. Complaints about the SNP’s top team didn’t mean this group were any more enthused by Labour, explaining the party was only popular because it was “piggybacking off how bad the Tories have been” and “because people have given up on the SNP”. Neither the Scottish Labour leader, Anas Sarwar, (“you can easily forget what he said”) nor Keir Starmer (“he has no charisma”) filled the group with confidence they had what it took to bring about the change Scotland needed, and the participants still didn’t feel they knew what these party leaders stood for. Others, such as Asa, pushed back, explaining that after the excitement of recent years, “I don’t need a leader to be inspiring. I just want them to be competent.” Ultimately, most seemed willing to set their hesitations aside if it meant getting the Tories out. Laura felt the most important thing was a “fresh start”. Darren went further: “If Scotland don’t vote Labour this time around, we are going to end up with the Tories again,” while Asa felt he had to vote Labour this election “to get a decent majority [in Westminster] that is actually able to govern”, despite still intending to support the SNP at Holyrood. On the flip side, others worried the loss of a large SNP contingent would mean that Scotland “didn’t have a voice” or even that Scotland was “forgotten about”. Overall this group confirmed what the polls are showing: Labour is almost certainly heading for gains in Scotland, and the SNP has not recovered from Sturgeon’s departure. The question, though, is how significant Labour’s gains will be. If this group is representative, the answer will come down to a head v heart split, whether the priority is a strong Labour majority in Westminster or a distinctive SNP voice in parliament. Three weeks out, this group remained torn. Luke Tryl is the UK director of the research group More in Common.