January had barely begun when Humza Yousaf made a vigorous pitch to neutralise Scottish Labour’s increasingly successful appeals to Scottish National party supporters. Keir Starmer “doesn’t need Scotland to win the general election”, the SNP leader said, in a direct counter to the Labour leader’s message that winning more seats in Scotland was fundamental to a Labour victory. Instead, Yousaf told SNP politicians and activists assembled at a bohemian arts venue in Glasgow, Scotland needed nationalist MPs to “keep [Starmer] honest” – and he set an ambitious target of winning all six Scottish Conservative seats at the forthcoming general election. The mood was relaxed and convivial; a contrast to the presidential-style launches of his predecessor as first minister Nicola Sturgeon, who blindsided the party when she announced her resignation a year ago this week. The stakes for Yousaf are very high. Ten years on from the independence referendum, Labour – which currently has only two Scottish MPs – is poised for a dramatic comeback. Most recent opinion polls show the SNP is facing heavy losses in the general election, potentially losing 24 of its 43 seats.
“If the SNP gets around 30 seats then he may be able to hold on, but if it’s between 20-25 then it’s a different conversation,” says one former Holyrood minister. “Questions will have to be asked,” one SNP MP added. If the losses are substantial, many assume he will face a leadership challenge in the shape of Kate Forbes, who has maintained a high profile after narrowly losing to Yousaf in the bruising contest to succeed Sturgeon a year ago. The upbeat mood of early January has faded. “Activists are feeling flat,” said one usually positive SNP MP. “They’re not in the place they want to be ahead of a general election and they hate the ‘Tory-free Scotland’ strategy, which is a hard sell in constituencies that aren’t up against the Conservatives”. Party membership figures show a continuing decline, down from the post-referendum heights of 120,000 to just over 69,000. There has been sympathy for Yousaf, who has faced an onslaught of political misfortunes since he took over: the arrest of Sturgeon and her husband, Peter Murrell, in Operation Branchform, Police Scotland’s investigation into the SNP’s finances; infighting over the governing partnership with the Scottish Greens; a chastening court loss to the UK government over Holyrood’s gender recognition policy; and this week the resignation of the health secretary, Michael Matheson, over his astronomical parliamentary iPad bill. But it is wearing thin. Many MP colleagues are now “just pissed off”, one said. “They’ve had enough. There’s mixed messaging from the leadership and that’s coming from the top down.” While activists and elected members believe the party benefits from Yousaf’s more inclusive style, they repeatedly identify a sense of drift – the defining big idea he promised when elected last April has not yet materialised.
Yousaf’s advisers accept that project was derailed by last year’s crises – not least his in-laws finding themselves trapped in Gaza by Israeli bombardment. But this year’s election gives him the platform he needs to lay out his vision, they say; this is the time when voters pay most attention. Yousaf will focus on child poverty, fairness and social justice in the coming months, attacking Starmer’s caution and fiscal conservatism, for example on the two-child benefit cap and green measures. They believe Yousaf’s stance on Gaza – immediately calling for a ceasefire and speaking movingly about his relatives’ plight – has already helped to shift voter perceptions. “There’s an ongoing task to define him but with Gaza, whether people liked it or didn’t, you began to see a clear definition of the first minister, who he is.” Most notably there was outrage from council and opposition leaders over Yousaf’s surprise decision to freeze council tax rates after the SNP’s crushing defeat by Labour in October’s Rutherglen byelection, yet the policy has proven to be extremely popular with voters. “The disconnection between the Scottish political bubble and Scottish electoral reality I don’t think has ever been greater,” said one government source. He points to a new Ipsos poll giving the SNP a clear lead over Labour – seven points at Westminster and nine points in Holyrood constituencies. Although it tracked a steady decline in the SNP’s lead over Labour, the poll was conducted after the UK Covid inquiry revealed wholesale WhatsApp deletion, unrecorded meetings and accusations of politicising the pandemic by Scottish ministers.
Other polls have found Labour neck and neck with the SNP in Westminster preferences, however, while the Scottish Election Study has highlighted a sharp drop in perceived competence for the SNP, once rock solid under Sturgeon. They all underline a sea change in Scottish voting preferences that greatly benefits Labour: for the first time since the 2014 referendum, people’s constitutional beliefs are no longer tied to their voting intention. Scottish Labour believes its polling numbers will hold up, as it encounters increasing disquiet about “SNP secrecy” on the doorstep. Voters “are talking about camper vans, WhatsApps and Michael Matheson’s iPad because they’re relatable,” said one senior Scottish Labour strategist. And a massive unknown is the police investigation – and the potential nightmare scenario of fighting a general election with some of the party’s senior figures facing trial for embezzlement charges. As for Sturgeon, the raw emotion she displayed during her evidence at the Covid inquiry shocked many who had been following her chirpy social media output showcasing hill-walking and book festivals. Her tears were, friends say, “utterly sincere”, and evidence of the punishing intensity of leading the country through the pandemic. She knew the session would be gruelling and had prepared assiduously, with strong support from her parents and close friends, most of whom are not in politics. She is forging ahead with her memoir, due to be published in 2025, which she is viewing as her opportunity to “tell her side”. One friend observes that Sturgeon continues to sell out SNP events, most recently a comedy fundraiser and Burns dinner: “The party hasn’t walked away, which gives her strength when the bad shit happens.”