The controversy surrounding Labour’s attack advert suggesting Rishi Sunak does not support jailing child abusers dominated the headlines over the Easter break, drawing furious criticism from both the left of the party and the Conservatives. Labour officials have insisted that the shock tactic was helping their message to cut through, putting the Tories’ poor record on crime under the spotlight. But that was not the experience of candidates doing canvassing ahead of the local elections. “The tweets weren’t mentioned once on the door, I think it is very much a Westminster village/Twitter story,” said Declan Stones, a Labour candidate in Bournemouth’s East Cliff and Springbourne ward. “Crime is a big issue in my seat, petty theft, drug crime, etc. This is often raised on the door and they like our messaging on crime in general. Whether we get any cut-through on the recent tweets in weeks to come is up for debate.”
Candidates in other areas declined to discuss the ads, with some saying they needed to stay on good terms with a party leadership that has increasingly prioritised message discipline. Keir Starmer said he would “make absolutely zero apologies for being blunt” in an article published in the Daily Mail on Monday. He said he would “stand by every word Labour has said on this subject” and would continue to use the Conservatives’ record on crime as a legitimate criticism “no matter how squeamish it might make some feel”. Many on the left of the party have said the advert constitutes “dog-whistle politics” and has clear racist undertones in the context of the home secretary’s recent claim that “almost all” grooming gangs were British-Pakistani men. But a Labour insider insisted people simply weren’t used to Labour campaigning on law and order, which is central to who Starmer is. “We’re not responsible for what Suella Braverman said. We have criticised her views, but we will continue to hold Sunak accountable for the 13 years of Tory government,” they said. A former director of Labour strategy under Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership told the Guardian that the attack advert appeared to have been born out of fear that that the Tories could try to narrow the polling gap with Starmer in a similarly personalised way. “I don’t really understand why a party 20 points ahead in the polls and fighting a local election about potholes would risk opening itself up like this, on an issue that doesn’t come near to deciding the next election,” said Carl Shoben, now leading on strategic communications for the pollster Survation. The party, he suggested, could instead focus on “the cost of living, health, a positive vision for the future”. According to an Ipsos poll, last week Sunak’s personal rating went up five points, with 32% of voters satisfied with him. In the same poll, Starmer’s personal rating went down by three points, leaving him one percentage point behind his opposite number. On a trip to Hartlepool last week, Starmer told people he wanted to make a “positive case” for Labour taking as many council seats in the town as possible. A few days later, he visited Burnley and Scunthorpe to deliver a similar message on the local election campaign trail as he stuck to his party’s relentless focus on winning back “red wall” voters. For some Labour MPs and members, however, the leadership’s targeting of just one part of the English electorate, to what they regard as the exclusion of all others, verges on an uncomfortable obsession.
Many of those voters the party lost so dramatically in 2019 were pro-Brexit, socially conservative on issues ranging from gender identity to national security, and sceptical of immigration. Labour has undeniably tacked to the right to gain a hearing, prompting anxiety that the party’s core vote – these days concentrated in the socially liberal big cities – could be put off. But party strategists have calculated that while some of those may have to hold their nose while they vote Labour next time, they will still do it, rather than allow the Conservatives to win their fifth general election in a row. They are unapologetic about their single-minded focus on the red wall – and on deploying whatever devices they need to encourage those voters to put an X next to Labour on their ballot paper. Experts have suggested this could pose a problem for Labour, if they are keen to continue presenting their party as different from the Conservatives. Luke Tryl, UK director of More in Common, believes the advert about Sunak and child abuse will cut through to the public like Boris Johnson’s slurs against Starmer on Jimmy Savile did last year. But he suggests attacks like the crime campaign could reinforce the negative stereotype that Starmer will be a politician just like the rest, without fresh ideas. “Starmer leads ahead of Sunak on whether he would ‘be a fresh start’ after an election. But voters do not like the fact that he always attacks and says nothing about what he’d do,” he said.