With the start of a new year came a new haircut and suit for Boris Johnson as he fronted his first press conference of 2022 to reject calls for new coronavirus restrictions. The prime minister’s flagging Downing Street operation had looked in dire need of a reset before Christmas after months of sleaze scandals, anger at Covid laws and the shock resignation of his Brexit negotiator, David Frost. No 10 was hoping the festive break would stop talk of a Conservative leadership challenge and that Johnson’s decision to hold off restrictions would earn him a breather. However, any reprieve looked to be shortlived, with growing unease among his MPs about the impending cost of living crisis, a further onslaught of sleaze allegations over the No 11 flat refurbishment this week, and continuing inquiries into lockdown-busting parties in Downing Street – all against a backdrop of Omicron. Tory insiders believe a leadership relaunch full of hope and optimism would be difficult to pull off at this stage. These are some of the key challenges he will have to navigate in the months ahead, if he wants to avoid placing his political fate in the hands of his own backbenchers. 26 January: review point for Covid restrictions Johnson came down on the side of Tory backbenchers and against some medical and scientific voices calling for more restrictions in the new year. But the real crunch point will be later this month. Far from being mollified, his backbenchers are going further in their calls for Covid restrictions to be lessened or scrapped completely. Andrew Bridgen, Tory MP for North West Leicestershire, said: “Given it’s now endemic, we should be stopping all restrictions, stopping all testing outside of hospitals, we don’t need self-isolation any more. “Get our economy moving, and save a fortune on testing by not doing it any more. And use these savings and extra revenue to cut the VAT on heating and also scrap the NICs [national insurance contributions] rise in April.” Bridgen is not alone in believing all curbs should end. Should Johnson want to introduce further restrictions or just continue with current ones on masks and working from home, he will face a battle with his own party. January: the long-awaited levelling-up white paper Johnson’s central idea guiding his premiership has been the principle of levelling up. However, it has been more than two years since the 2019 election and ideas in this area have been sorely lacking. Michael Gove currently holds the levelling up brief and is charged with bringing key ideas from the Johnson administration to life. If it is disappointing or too technocratic, Johnson will be open to charges that his premiership is lacking in focus and fresh policies. “What are we going to do with the next two years to convince people it was worth voting for us?” as one MP put it. February and April: energy price cap decision and NICs rise Johnson is coming under growing pressure over the price of energy, with warnings that bills may rise by 50% to keep suppliers afloat when the price cap is reviewed by the regulator, Ofgem, in February. No 10 and the Treasury are examining possible mitigations but are focusing their attention on ways to help the poorest, such as increasing the warm homes discount, rather than a measure that would ease the cost for everyone – slashing VAT on gas and electricity bills. This is particularly tricky for Johnson as he boasted in 2016 that scrapping the sales tax on utility bills would be possible after Brexit – and Labour has taken up the cause with gusto since then. Calls from the Telegraph-reading right of the party for the NICs rise to be cancelled will also sting Johnson with the criticism that the move was fundamentally unconservative. It remains to be seen whether he will manage to hold his ground as the moment approaches when voters will really feel pain in their pockets. Timing unknown: review of No 10’s lockdown busting parties The revelation that No 10 held gatherings during lockdown from as early as May 2020 to Christmas parties last year severely hit the prime minister’s poll ratings. This in turn has enraged backbenchers, less over the rule-flouting but more over the carelessness and attempted cover-ups.
The inquiry, now led by Cabinet Office veteran Sue Gray, has been collecting testimony. Those who know her methods believe she may find ways of being critical without causing serious damage to the prime minister. Nevertheless, anything that keeps the lockdown parties in the headlines is bad news for the Conservatives’ popularity. Spring: a reshuffle of his top team There has been persistent speculation about a possible reshaping of Johnson’s operation. Some Tory MPs believe there will have to be a “sacrifice” for missteps over the lockdown party furore and many would like to see a return to the ascendancy of the Brexit-focused wing of the party, which is now underrepresented since the departure of Dominic Cummings and Frost. Tories have long grumbled about the prime minister’s chief of staff, Dan Rosenfield, a former banker and civil servant, who they believe is insufficiently political. If Johnson does decide to go for a spring reshuffle coinciding with good news on a waning Covid wave, it could be accompanied by a staff shake-up. May: local elections The May elections are a key point for assessing how the government and opposition are doing with voters. Robert Hayward, a Tory peer and elections expert, said all eyes will be on whether the Tories can hang on to key London boroughs, including Westminster and Wandsworth and Johnson’s own territory of Hillingdon – and equally whether Labour’s Keir Starmer has enough appeal to take them. He said the metropolitan elections were also worth observing to see if the Tories are holding firm or receding in crucial red wall areas across the north of England. The performance relative to other years – bearing in mind Johnson is running a midterm government after 12 years of Tory rule – are always a litmus test in the minds of MPs. “My view about political leaders is that you lose power by attrition. There are very few that lose power on one specific event,” said Hayward.