Labour’s lead over the Conservatives stands at a commanding 18 points, according to the last Opinium poll for the Observer before a huge set of local elections. With more than 8,000 council seats across 230 authorities in England up for election on Thursday, the Tories had been hoping that polls would tighten as they attempt to avoid heavy losses in both the red wall of old Labour seats and the blue wall – south-eastern seats where, traditionally, they have been strong. However, the latest poll gives Labour an 18-point lead, with Keir Starmer’s party on 44% of the vote and the Tories down two points on 26%. The Lib Dems were unchanged on a 10% vote share. It is a four-point increase on Labour’s lead a fortnight ago. About 20% of 2019 Conservative voters have switched their vote to Labour.
Overall, recent polling data has revealed a stabilisation in the fortunes of both main parties. While the prime minister, Rishi Sunak, has recovered the Tory position since Liz Truss’s disastrous time in office, the three previous polls put the party on 28%, 29% and 30% of the vote. Labour’s vote share has been 42%, 44%, 41% – findings broadly within a margin of error. The latest poll also shows a slump in Sunak’s personal approval ratings, with 26% approving of the job he is doing and 44% disapproving. It puts him on a net approval of -18. Starmer is on -3 due to rounding – with 31% approving and 33% disapproving of his performance. Starmer also narrowly leads on who voters see as the best prime minister, by 28% to 26%. The pollsters said this continued a pattern which effectively sees the two leaders tied on this question. In particular, the Conservative party brand seems weak, though there has been some improvement over the past month. The party is most seen as knowing what it stands for (-8%), having a clear sense of purpose (-20%), and being tolerant (-27%). It is least seen as being in touch with ordinary people (-48%). The Labour party brand is a “mixed picture”, Opinium said, with the past month showing signs of some decline across all perceptions. The party is most seen as being in touch with ordinary people (+11%), having the nation’s best interests at heart (+11%), and being tolerant (+6%). It is least seen as being trusted to take big decisions (-6%). James Crouch, head of policy and public affairs at Opinium, said: “With just one week to go until the local elections, the Conservative party is yet to make a significant dent in Labour’s lead, according to our latest poll. “Although Rishi Sunak has attempted to restore a basic sense of what his party stands for, the latest results show that still less than a quarter of the country trusts the governing party to make big decisions. “Until the public feels it can trust the government again, it is no wonder that the Conservatives are struggling to turn around their position in the polls.”