Voters who believe in independence must vote for the Scottish National party in the coming general election, Humza Yousaf has said in a direct appeal to wavering supporters. Earlier this week, in his first major speech of the new year, Anas Sarwar, the Scottish Labour leader, urged independence supporters to defect from the SNP to “boot the Tories out” of Downing Street. But the SNP leader, launching his party’s general election campaign in Glasgow on Friday, had a blunt message for those whom polls indicate are drifting towards Labour: “If you believe decisions about Scotland should be taken in Scotland – if you believe in independence – then you must vote SNP. If you want to see an independent Scotland, you have to get out and vote for it.” Yousaf said Keir Starmer “doesn’t need Scotland to win the election”. This has been a consistent Labour argument, with Starmer himself describing the party’s victory over the SNP at the Rutherglen and Hamilton byelection last October as a “milestone” on its route back to Downing Street.
The SNP leader said “Scotland does need SNP MPs to make sure we aren’t ignored,” and that his politicians would “keep [Starmer] honest”. Telling assembled MPs, MSPs and activists that Rishi Sunak was “done” and claiming it was clear that Starmer would be the next prime minister, he offered to “work constructively” with a Labour government to prevent backsliding on green investment or the creeping privatisation of the NHS. Countering Sarwar’s pledge that electing more Labour MPs would “maximise Scottish influence”, the SNP’s Westminster leader, Stephen Flynn, said that any Scottish Labour MPs elected would “take independence off the table” as soon as they got to the Commons. Yousaf set his party an ambitious target of winning all six Tory seats at the forthcoming general election, which Sunak has suggested could take place in the autumn, in order “to wipe the Tories from Scotland’s electoral map”. He added that, in more than half of the SNP-held seats, it was the Tories who were in second place. Yousaf said: “So to people right across the country, our message will be very clear: vote SNP for a Scotland free from Tory MPs.” Regardless of his certainty about a Labour victory, the SNP leader said Labour and Tories were “offering more of the same”. He added: “History has shown us that the only certainty of a Labour government is that it will be followed by another Tory government. Scotland needs more than just a brief respite from the damage of Tory rule.” While urging activists in the room to “work harder than ever to ensure Scotland gains her independence”, he offered no concrete sense of how independence would be achieved, beyond the multifaceted and – according to some senior SNP politicians – over-complicated strategy passed at party conference last October. The conference agreed that, if the SNP wins a majority of Scotland’s seats at the general election, it will have the mandate to negotiate independence with the UK government, but this does not address the likely scenario of a continued block on a second referendum from Westminster. He told reporters after the launch: “If you want the independence cause to be advancing, then the SNP should be winning … if that’s not the case, then those who oppose independence will say that’s a mandate for further Westminster control.” Both Yousaf and Flynn also urged Sunak to recall parliament to allow for debate on UK military action in Yemen, and reiterated calls for a ceasefire in Gaza. Challenges for the SNP heading into a general election 1. UK Labour’s electability With polls indicating that Scottish Labour and the SNP are toe-to-toe in Westminster voting intention, focus groups suggest that Sarwar’s increasingly direct appeals to independence supporters are working. Sarwar and Starmer’s message is simple enough: now is the time for Scottish voters to unite, regardless of previous differences over independence or Brexit, and vote for change. In contrast, after 16 years in government in Edinburgh and with voters’ once cast-iron belief in SNP competence dwindling amid crumbling public services, Yousaf is struggling to offer a similarly appealing story. 2. Voters are in no hurry for independence While the Scottish government continues to publish its series of papers setting out the updated case for independence, these are increasingly prone to accusations of fantasy, while voters make it plain that even though supportive of separation in the long term they want politicians’ immediate focus to be on the cost of living crisis. This sea change in Scottish politics over the last year or so, as voters decouple their constitutional preference from party preference for the first time since the 2014 referendum, is a serious headache for SNP strategists. The multi-pronged independence strategy agreed at SNP conference offers little to counter the continuing hard fact that a second referendum requires the agreement of the UK government. 3. Taxing the rich? Yousaf’s political rivals are already taking every opportunity to attack him on tax. The Scottish Tories are warning of brain-drain after the new tax band for higher earners introduced in December’s draft budget. Scottish Labour has asked how progressive it is that anyone earning more than £29,000 in Scotland already pays more tax than they would in England and Wales while council tax remains frozen, benefiting those with larger properties while starving councils of funding for services that low earners rely upon. If Jeremy Hunt reduces income tax rates in England and Wales as expected in his spring statement, the tax gap north of the border may widen further. The SNP government argues these tax increases will help offset the effects of real-terms funding cuts in Westminster’s block grant for Scotland, but with deep cuts announced in the budget across sectors, this will be a tough sell. 4. Police inquiry into SNP finances It may have been out of the headlines in recent months, but Operation Branchform, the Police Scotland investigation into claims that the party misspent £600,000 of donations, is yet to conclude. Already the subject of countless memes, the image of the forensic tent in former party leader Nicola Sturgeon’s garden – and the suspicion of at best mismanagement and at worst criminal wrongdoing – is likely to figure on plenty of campaign material. The effect is not only on voters: the party has also struggled to persuade stalwart activists, usually the backbone of its campaigning, to knock on doors, with many disillusioned by the fallout.