1. Johnson out within days Support for Johnson continues to haemorrhage away over the next 24 to 48 hours. Tory MPs despair as their party nosedives further in the polls and constituents flood their inboxes with furious emails. Tory councillors panic, fearing carnage in May’s local elections. Government is paralysed. More Conservative MPs call for Johnson to step down. The “men in grey suits” from the 1922 committee decide to strike before the civil servant Sue Gray reports and tell him to go. Like Theresa May before him, Johnson falls on his sword. Likelihood: moderate but increasing. 2. Johnson is ousted within two weeks, after Sue Gray’s report Gray reports at the end of this week. Johnson tries to spin her highly critical conclusions as little more than a rap over the knuckles for him and No 10. Rishi Sunak quits as chancellor, saying enough is enough and that he is ready to stand. At least 54 Tory MPs (the minimum needed) write to 1922 chair, Sir Graham Brady, triggering a vote of confidence in Johnson which the PM loses, bringing his premiership to a disastrous end. Likelihood: High. 3. Johnson survives until after the May local elections, only then to be dumped by his party The Gray report is critical but fails to deliver a “smoking gun”. Johnson and his team at No 10 somehow manage to limp on, after apologising again for their errors and saying the last thing the country needs is a Tory leadership contest. Tory MPs give the PM one more chance. But the electorate is seething. The May local elections deliver thumping Tory losses. Sunak resigns as does foreign secretary Liz Truss. Johnson suffers humiliating defeat in a confidence vote of his MPs, so has to quit under party rules. Likelihood: Moderate. 4. Johnson survives until the next election … and possibly beyond. Sue Gray’s report is a damp squib, full of Whitehall equivocation, letting the prime minister off the hook. The Tory party returns to the view that Johnson is a born survivor as well as a winner. Sunak and Truss pretend they had always been loyal. Covid all but disappears from the UK and Johnson claims credit. Keir Starmer and Labour seem to have missed their chance. Johnson remains prime minister and leads his party into the next election. Likelihood. Low and getting lower. Toby Helm