Labour was celebrating a string of election successes on Friday in a set of results that party officials said showed it heading for victory in the upcoming general election. Beneath the euphoria of wins in places such as Blackpool, Hartlepool and Thurrock, however, lay a nervousness about the party’s performance in urban areas, with campaigners warning it had lost ground in both London and Birmingham. By Friday afternoon, the party had gained more than 140 council seats and won the Blackpool South byelection with the third biggest swing in post-war history. But party sources said they were not confident of winning the marginal West Midlands mayoral race and that the Tory candidate for the London mayoralty, Susan Hall, could also run Sadiq Khan unexpectedly close.
Rob Ford, a professor of politics at the University of Manchester, said: “The Labour strategy was to do better in parts of the country they had lost since 2016: leave areas, more rural areas, more Tory areas, whiter areas. They have done better across the board in all those areas.” But, he added: “They also have seen trouble brewing up on their left flank. There has been a substantial loss of support in heavily Muslim areas and they are going backwards a bit in progressive areas and areas with students. It is progress at a price.” Allies of the Labour leader, Keir Starmer, said Friday’s results showed the wisdom of pursuing a strategy of chasing votes in leave-voting areas of the country where voters abandoned them in 2019. The party won the Blackpool South byelection with a swing of 26% – the third highest since the war – as well as gaining control of councils in Thurrock, Hartlepool and Rushmoor. An analysis by Sky News showed the swing to Labour was highest in the parts of the country that voted most heavily for Brexit.
The success in Hartlepool was particularly validating for the Labour leader, given he almost quit after the party lost a byelection soon after he took over the party. A Labour spokesperson said: “Making gains here shows that the party is on track to win a general election and is firmly back in the service of working people.” Party officials were also pleased that their candidate, David Skaith, won the mayoralty in York and North Yorkshire – an area that includes Rishi Sunak’s constituency. By Friday afternoon, the BBC was projecting that if these results were repeated across the country at a general election, Labour would win about 34% of the vote, compared with 25% for the Tories. Starmer’s campaign chiefs say they can win more seats than their national vote share would suggest by targeting voters in the more marginal parts of the country, even if it means losing support in urban areas where the party has traditionally done well. The downsides of that strategy became apparent as Friday wore on, with officials becoming more downbeat about taking the West Midlands and more nervous about Khan winning a third term in London.
Sources said much of the loss of urban support was being driven by anger among Muslim and progressive voters about Starmer’s stance on Gaza. One London Labour source said: “The polls [which predicted a 20-point lead for Khan] were completely wrong, this is going to be much closer than expected.” One in Birmingham said: “It felt very tough in Birmingham. [Akhmed Yakoob, an independent candidate] is picking up over 50% in some inner-city wards, so the Gaza impact may be bigger than first estimated.” The issue continues to cause problems for Starmer, as shown on Friday morning when Labour unexpectedly lost control of Oldham council, having lost a number of council seats to pro-Palestinian independent candidates. Later in the day, the party lost its deputy leader of Manchester council to a candidate from George Galloway’s Workers Party of Britain. Labour campaigners in London said Gaza had driven voters in the inner city away from the party, while the controversy over the clean air ultra-low emissions zone had cost it in outer boroughs. A shock Conservative win in London would dominate the political agenda for days, renew questions over Labour’s environmental policies and provoke anger from the left of the party. But experts say it would not detract from the overall picture that the party is heading for a general election victory this year. One senior Labour source said: “Losing London would be devastating, but most of the country is fine and this won’t affect the general election.”