Polls have closed in the Birmingham Erdington by-election, amid jitters among Labour campaigners that a low turnout could jeopardise the party’s hold on the seat. The byelection was triggered by the death of the Labour MP Jack Dromey, who had represented the constituency since 2010. It has been held by Labour since 1974: as long as it has existed in its current form. Dromey had a majority of 3,600 at the last election. Labour poured campaigners into the local area on Thursday on a concerted get-out-the-vote drive, as wet weather risked further depressing turnout in a seat where it has previously been low in past contests – making the result harder to predict. One activist said they had run out of potential voters to rally by 6.30pm, and were anxious about the result. Two Labour MPs campaigning in the seat said they thought they would hold it, however. The Conservatives made gains in the West Midlands in the 2019 general election, winning longstanding Labour seats including Birmingham Northfield, and Tom Watson’s former constituency of West Bromwich East. A Tory source said Boris Johnson’s party did not expect to win in Erdington, but hoped to maintain its 2019 vote share, which was 40% to Labour’s 50%.
The elections expert Patrick English, of YouGov, said: “All signs point to what should be a comfortable hold for Starmer’s party tonight.” He highlighted the fact that when Labour lost the Hartlepool byelection to the Conservatives last May, they were trailing the Conservatives by about 10 points in the national polls, but have now been leading consistently for almost three months. The Conservatives’ poll lead has been obliterated after months of debilitating headlines over lockdown-busting parties in Downing Street, and there is little sign as yet that the prime minister’s handling of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is helping to restore his reputation in voters’ eyes. The party suffered the humiliating loss of the North Shropshire byelection to the Liberal Democrats in December, after the resignation of disgraced former MP Owen Paterson, and senior Tories are concerned they could see significant losses in forthcoming local elections. Labour’s candidate in Erdington, local nurse Paulette Hamilton, was embroiled in controversy this week when comments emerged from 2015 when she attended a meeting called “The Ballot or the Bullet – Does Your Vote Count?” about increasing minorities’ representation in politics. Hamilton said she was not sure “we will get what we really deserve in this country using the vote”. Labour said the remarks had been taken out of context. Hamilton brought up her five children in Erdington and has sat on Birmingham city council for 18 years. She returned to the NHS frontline during the pandemic. The Conservative candidate is another local councillor, Bobby Alden, the leader of the Conservative group on the council, who has contested Erdington unsuccessfully four times in the past.