Like many, I was sceptical on hearing that the Tories had the “red wall” – dozens of long-held Labour constituencies stretching through the Midlands up to the north – in their sights. Perceptions of the Tory brand had changed little in decades of listening to voters. A typical Tory was “upper class”. He – and yes, it almost certainly was a “he”, even when the Conservative prime minister was a woman – worked in finance, read the Times and wore a pinstripe suit. I had asked focus groups to imagine his Come Dine with Me signature dish. It was the poshest food they could dream up: quail or pheasant washed down by a costly vintage wine. How could working-class voters from those run-down, post-industrial towns ever bring themselves to vote Tory? It seemed unimaginable, and yet, on 12 December 2019, seat after seat fell in Labour’s red wall. I set out to find out why. The interviews and focus groups for my book, Beyond the Red Wall, were held in early 2020 in Hyndburn, Stoke, and Darlington. They confirmed a settled and negative view of the Tory brand. “I always thought the Tories were snobby,” pronounced Tracy, a carer, from Accrington. “Snobbish, corporate and arrogant,” agreed retired mechanic Andy. “Self-centred, rich and privileged,” declared Jean, a healthcare worker from Stoke. Yet, these voters, typically poorly paid manual workers, had all turned up to tell me why they had voted Tory for the first time. Longstanding disillusionment with Labour was part of their story, as was Brexit (a majority of red wallers voted Leave). But the single most important determinant was, as it always is, the party leader. As one voter put it: “Boris has de-snobbified the Tories.” Johnson had given her a licence to vote Conservative for the first time.
He had stood out as different: “focused and determined” to resolve the “Brexit mess”. “Get Brexit done” had a clarity that appealed even to Remain-voting red wallers who, it seemed, now simply wanted it all to be over. This, they believed, demonstrated how well he understood what they wanted. Still unpersuaded, I pressed them: “Could an Old Etonian ever really relate to people from such different backgrounds?” The answer was clear: his warmth and positivity told them he “liked people” (oddly unusual for a politician). His somewhat chaotic spontaneity signalled that, even if born posh, he was authentic and down-to-earth. Most of all, though, it was his optimistic patriotism that shone through. “He’s like a light at the end of the tunnel,” said Sue, a shopworker from Darlington. “He believes in Britain and that makes you want to believe in him.” When the unexpected – in the shape of Covid-19 – happened, initially Johnson’s ratings sky-rocketed. The nation came together with wartime spirit, but then came a rocky few weeks of PPE shortages, testing mishaps and Dominic Cummings’ trip to Barnard Castle. I recontacted some of my interviewees to see if their views had changed. Their first response was always defensive: “They’ve done as good a job as they could in difficult circumstances,” Yvonne, from Darlington told me, while Michelle, who runs a sandwich shop in Accrington, was just relieved she didn’t have to do the PM’s job. However, as discussions dug deeper, the disappointment was palpable. Karen from Stoke said: “I loved that he was very clear. Firm and assertive. But he’s lost it over this – we’ve got wishy-washy back.” Colin, a builder, agreed. “My opinion of him has definitely gone down. It’s the way he comes across. Stumbles quite a bit when he needs to look like he’s in charge … waffle when we need clarity.” “Might this mean they’d change their vote?” I wondered. Most knew that Labour had a new leader, and quite liked what they saw, but most were also clear that, at this stage, they knew far too little about the direction of Keir Starmer’s party. Despite everything, many were still willing Johnson to succeed. Although the early euphoria had dissipated, they were unlikely to switch votes soon. Ian, a plumber from Accrington, summed it up: “I don’t know what he [Starmer] is about yet. Meanwhile I see Boris clearly. For all his flaws, I get him. I genuinely believe that he is an old-fashioned patriot. He believes in Britain, he’s not ashamed of the empire. He’s positive and optimistic. And for the time being that’s good enough for me.”