Boris Johnson’s chutzpah has never been in doubt, but even his harshest critics were taken aback at the decision to face down a delegation from his own hand-picked cabinet, brandishing data showing he cannot win another confidence vote. For much of the day, the received wisdom at Westminster was that Johnson would be gone before nightfall – particularly as he blustered and squirmed his way through a grilling by MPs on the liaison committee. Yet even after cabinet ministers, including super-loyalist Grant Shapps, spent more than an hour running him through the hard realities of the situation, No 10 sources insisted he had no intention of moving – and it may now take a confidence vote to dislodge him. Johnson’s erstwhile nemesis Michael Gove had earlier delivered a similar message, telling him face-to-face that his position had become unsustainable, and he should make a dignified exit rather than wait to be dislodged. The prime minister’s allies had hoped the moment of maximum danger had passed on Tuesday evening, after the shock resignations of Sajid Javid and Rishi Sunak were followed – albeit after a long pause – by promises of support from the rest of his cabinet. Selected by the prime minister for their loyalty, most opted to stay rather than head for the backbenches. But even by late on Tuesday evening, it had become clear that the exit of the two cabinet big beasts was only the beginning of a comprehensive collapse in support for Johnson’s leadership. Pressure was coming from both the top and bottom of the parliamentary party, with a string of ministerial resignations, and at the same time, a growing number of previously loyal backbenchers saying they had changed their minds and could no longer support him. That group includes the former loyalists Jonathan Gullis and Lee Anderson, previously to be found offering noisy support for Johnson from the Tory benches at prime minister’s questions (PMQs). It became increasingly clear throughout the day that Johnson had lost the support of the majority of his own party; but as he insisted to MPs on the liaison committee, he believes his mandate comes directly from the voters who handed him a thumping majority in December 2019. He even appeared to threaten to call a snap election rather than quit. Nevertheless, after the cabinet set-to – which included the extraordinary spectacle of the culture secretary, Nadine Dorries, arriving at No 10 to support him – the precise mechanism for Johnson’s departure may have remained unclear, but the weight of numbers did not. The executive of the 1922 Committee has opened up nominations to elections to be held next Monday, which could open the way for a change in the rules and an early confidence vote as soon as next week – one which a string of allies have made clear he cannot win. And that is even if he is able to fill the multitude of frontbench positions that have opened up in the past 48 hours, including key posts such as City minister. That looks like a tall order given how many backbenchers have either already resigned or publicly declared they no longer have confidence in Johnson.
The grim-faced backbenchers sitting behind the prime minister at PMQs certainly did not look like enthusiastic recruits.
The prime minister heroically claimed that Keir Starmer wanted him out of a job because he would win the Tories the next general election; but the byelections in Tiverton and Honiton and Wakefield suggest quite the opposite. Both in the “red wall” and deep in rural Tory heartlands Johnson has become electorally toxic. His aim of moving on and “getting on with the job”, was not helped by the fact that his handling of the Chris Pincher scandal continues to infuriate Conservative MPs. The backbencher Gary Sambrook asked a blistering question at PMQs, claiming Johnson had suggested to MPs as he toured the Commons tea room on Tuesday that Pincher’s victim was drunk. Johnson did not take the opportunity to deny he had said so; nor did his press secretary when asked about it by journalists afterwards. The prime minister also claimed to have suspended the whip from Pincher immediately on learning about the allegations – an outright untruth, given that it took Downing Street most of last Friday to get around to doing that, despite Pincher having resigned on Thursday evening.
Meanwhile, the steady stream of resignations and declarations of no confidence continued, with Tory MPs finding increasingly more creative ways of explaining why, having backed Johnson until this week, they could do so no longer. On Wednesday night, Johnson’s aides were claiming he is gearing up for a summer of kickstarting the economy – preferable, they said, to plunging his party into a divisive leadership contest. But whatever the precise timeline, and whoever ultimately wields the knife, it was hard to find anyone at Westminster who did not believe Johnson’s chaotic premiership is now hurtling towards an inevitable, and ignominious, end.