Labour’s lead over the Conservatives is now at 13 points, the lowest since before the party conferences, according to the latest Opinium poll for the Observer. Both Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak’s approval ratings have stayed steady since they both saw a big hit to their ratings last week. Starmer’s net approval is now -9, while Sunak’s net approval is now -29, a 3-point increase from a week ago. It comes after a week in which Sunak and his whips saw off a potential Tory rebellion over the plans to send some asylum seekers to Rwanda. While the row has torn the Tories apart for weeks, no Conservatives rebelled on the bill last week. While the Labour lead has fallen, it still maintains a double-digit lead heading into an election year. Labour had a 40% share of the vote in the latest poll, to 27% for the Conservatives. Starmer maintains a small lead on who voters regard as the next prime minister, leading by six points over Sunak. Still, more voters opt for “none of these”. Despite some Tories raising concerns about Sunak’s leadership for the first time, the polling suggests there is no public appetite for Sunak to resign, as there was in the final days of the premierships of both Boris Johnson and Liz Truss. In the final poll asking if Johnson should resign, 67% said he should. For Truss, the comparable figure was 80%. By comparison, only 40% want Sunak to resign and 34% want him to remain as leader.
NHS waiting times remain the main priority for voters, followed by cutting inflation and dealing with the cost of living, with fuel costs in third. However, cutting illegal immigration is now fourth after Sunak’s decision to prioritise his bill designed to ensure asylum seekers can be deported to Rwanda. Some 36% selected it as a priority before the next general election, up from 33% in mid-November. The public mood broadly continues to want to lower immigration according to the polling, with 63% believing immigration is too high and 17% seeing it as about right. While there is marginally more support for the Rwanda policy than against it, 45% of voters think the policy would be ineffective to deter people from crossing the Channel in small boats. About a third (35%) think it would be effective. While some Tory MPs continue to push for the UK to leave the European convention on human rights, the share of the public that agrees has stayed steady since March at 29%.