“Being honest, I wouldn’t have said it.” Rishi Sunak’s blunt remark about Boris Johnson’s comments on Keir Starmer and Jimmy Savile was the clearest indication yet that he is distancing himself from his beleaguered boss.
Speaking in the flag-bedecked Downing Street conference room without Johnson alongside him, Sunak was attempting to set out in soothing tones a package of measures aimed at easing the pain of the cost of living crisis. But, as ever in recent weeks, another crisis – that facing the prime minister’s leadership – impinged on proceedings. Less than an hour earlier, Johnson’s close aide Munira Mirza had resigned, citing the prime minister’s failure to apologise for trying to smear Starmer by falsely connecting him with the failure to prosecute Savile. Pressed on whether Johnson should give a full apology for the remarks, as Mirza had asked, Sunak repeatedly replied it was a matter for Johnson himself. Sunak didn’t say much. He didn’t have to. The comments are bound to be read by some of his colleagues as the strongest signal yet he may believe it is now time to act. Certainly, the chancellor looks like being the frontrunner in any leadership race – and his handling of the cost of living squeeze is being closely watched by backbenchers as a test of his political nous. The cost of living crisis is a present danger to him. But the past is too. Many Tory MPs were already less than impressed with his insistence on increasing national insurance contributions as the quid pro quo for funding Johnson’s costly plans for the NHS and social care. They are unlikely to be reassured by the fact that inflation is likely to hit 7% in the coming months. In effect, he is now handing households a rebate, at the same time as increasing their taxes – giving with one hand and taking with the other. It was also Sunak who doggedly insisted on cutting universal credit payments, which had been increased by £20 a week to help the poorest families weather the pandemic. After a furious backlash, which was partially reversed at the autumn budget by reducing the taper rate at which it is withdrawn.
Sunak’s careful approach to the public finances is praised by colleagues keen to see the Tories win back their reputation for fiscal competence. But others regard it as politically tone deaf, as the after-effects of the pandemic continue to ripple through the economy. Caution about the public finances also appeared to be behind his decision to cushion the blow of rocketing energy prices partly with loans, which will ultimately have to be repaid by consumers themselves, rather than the taxpayer footing the bill. That is effectively a bet on energy prices coming back down again in future years. If they remain high for longer than expected, the Treasury may yet have to extend the scheme. Another of Sunak’s political principles – a reluctance to interfere in business – appeared to be behind his decision to avoid taxing energy companies to pay for the measures, something Labour has been calling for since the autumn. Polls suggest that would be a popular approach, with oil companies raking in huge profits; but it cuts against Sunak’s brand of free market Conservatism. He has frequently restrained Johnson’s free-spending instincts, believing as he said in Thursday’s press conference that managing the public finances responsibly is what the public have the right to expect from his party. “As long as I have this job I’m going to do what I believe to be right in the long-term interests of the country,” he said. But there is increasing focus at Westminster on how well his sombre brand of Conservatism would fit him for another job altogether. • This article was amended on 6 February 2022 to correct a mistranscription of Sunak’s comment about Johnson’s Savile accusation. An earlier version had the quote as: “To be honest, I wouldn’t have said it.”