The Conservatives’ failure to win over young voters poses an “existential” challenge to the party, Rishi Sunak has been warned, as new polling found nearly two-thirds of millennials said it deserves to lose the next election. Research from the centre-right thinktank Onward found that millennials – which it defined as those aged 25 to 40 – think the Tories are dishonest, incompetent and out of touch. Yet despite this, it said there was hope younger voters could be attracted back to the party. Millennials are predominantly “shy capitalists” who support lower taxes over redistributing wealth, Onward’s report said. The report has been endorsed by former Tory vice-chair Bim Afolami. “The millennial generation is not becoming more likely to vote Conservative as its members age, this situation is worsening, and we need to better understand it,” he said in his foreword. “This issue is existential for the Conservative party, and not just for votes at the next or subsequent elections.” In what will make sobering reading for party bosses before the expected general election next year, a survey commissioned by Onward of 8,000 millennials found only 21% would vote Conservative should polling day be held tomorrow.
Such is their antipathy that nearly two-thirds – 62% – said the Tories “deserve to lose the next election”, with 45% saying they planned to vote Labour. While the Conservatives have historically been less popular with younger voters, the party’s problem is getting worse. “Millennials are the first demographic cohort not to become more rightwing as they age,” said Afolami. “They are failing to acquire many of the attributes that have traditionally moved voters rightwards: home ownership, secure and stable employment, starting families.” About 26% of the adult population are millennials, and they are said to be the largest cohort of any generation in about half – 324 – of Britain’s 650 constituencies. However, turnout at elections is often higher among older age groups. Areas with high numbers of younger voters tend to be clustered in cities – but also stretch to the periphery of them, to places such as Thurrock and Slough. Onward’s report warned that there is a danger the Tories “will eventually run out of road” and that if the party did not start to win over younger voters, “it risks an electoral timebomb”. Home-owning millennials are more likely to cite a distrust of the Conservatives to manage the economy, Onward found. It said this “suggests that the market shock caused by the 2022 mini-budget has undermined one of the traditional strengths of the Conservative brand”. A “silver lining” for the party is that Sunak himself is far less unpopular than his party among those born in the 1980s and 90s, the thinktank’s survey found. It said that his popularity was 20 percentage points higher than the party’s. Those “pro-Sunak, not Tory” voters, as Onward described them, are less likely to be white, probably live in urban areas, have high-level jobs and own a home. The cost of living, the NHS and the environment are top issues they share with all voters. But uniquely, they place housing and taxation much higher up the list. “Government has not delivered on millennials’ core priorities,” found the report, titled Missing Millennials. It cited issues with housing, and a lack of family-friendly policies and jobs, and said millennials had “no time for the culture war” which senior Tories are often accused of trying to wage. “The Tories’ opportunity for improving their stand with millennials is clear. They will need to be bold to win younger generations back,” it concluded.