Keir Starmer swept to the Labour leadership as the man who put rejoining the EU on the party’s agenda in the bleak years after the Brexit vote. But as he prepares for power, the chance of a Starmer government negotiating re-entry was summed up by the Labour peer Lord Mandelson this week: “You’ve got to be joking!” Brexit barely figures on voters’ list of pressing concerns, with inflation and the economy at the top. But it is likely to be a recurring – and potentially fraught – feature of a Starmer premiership. Since Rishi Sunak dialled down some of the tensions with the EU in recent months, Labour’s top team have shifted from barely mentioning Brexit to promising to make the relationship work better – starting with security, an area where Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has highlighted common interests. The shadow foreign secretary, David Lammy, told the Munich security conference last month that Labour wanted a new security pact with the EU, which would include regular ministerial meetings to discuss issues of shared concern. “It’s absolutely fundamental that the United Kingdom and Europe have the closest of relationships and the Brexit era is over, the situation is settled,” he said. Starmer and Lammy have undertaken a series of EU visits in recent months, keen to create softer mood music – with the nitty-gritty detail on trade left to the shadow minister without portfolio, Nick Thomas-Symonds. Anand Menon, the director of the thinktank UK in a Changing Europe, says this proposal for a closer security relationship should be achievable. “It is bizarre that we have far less political contact with the EU than the Chinese or the Canadians. That is just weird. So I think that’s a bit of a no-brainer,” he said. Some Labour insiders hope regular discussions on security could embrace a broader issues such as energy, supply chains and migration. This could allow key challenges to be tackled before a scheduled review of the trade and cooperation agreement (TCA), once seen by Labour as the moment for a reset, but now expected to be a more technical affair. The shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves’ adoption of the phrase “securonomics” to describe her approach to economic policy underlines the fact that Labour sees “security” as encompassing much more than defence and policing.
What senior Labour figures are not prepared to countenance, however, is a shift back to membership of the single market or the customs union, or a return of free movement. Party strategists are convinced that voters – particularly in the “red wall” Conservative seats they want to win back – would punish Labour for any deal with the EU that meant ceding control over who could come to the UK. They believe Labour, which the Tories caricature as “soft” on migration, would be judged harshly on this score and point to the havoc wrought on politics in many EU countries by the issue. This rules out closer arrangements that might make sense in economic terms. Reeves has also repeatedly pointed to the importance of stability for Britain’s long-suffering businesses, which could evaporate if a Labour government opened complex negotiations – though some business groups have called for closer EU ties. Labour also frets that a different deal with the EU could ride roughshod over agreements that the Conservative government has struck with Australia and New Zealand, and the UK’s membership of the CPTPP free trade area, despite the modest economic gains expected from these arrangements. As Lord Mandelson pointed out, it also appears unlikely that the EU would be enthusiastic. “Reopen a negotiation? You’ve got to be joking. They have got other priorities. They have other fish to fry now,” he told a business audience. The pledges of no return to the single market or customs union and no free movement have become what Labour frontbenchers call red lines. They have a narrower list of asks for Brussels. Thomas-Symonds, who counts the future EU relationship among his responsibilities, says: “Within our red lines, Labour will work to improve the UK’s relationship with the EU, including through seeking a veterinary agreement to help tackle trade barriers and help get food on the table, mutual recognition of professional qualifications, and improved touring opportunities for musicians.” Labour hopes most of these are of mutual interest; though Menon suggests EU member states may push for concessions on the movement of people in return. “Everyone seems to want mobility,” he says. The mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, has suggested that something like the two-year youth mobility scheme the UK has with countries such as Canada and Australia could be struck with the EU – but Labour sources suggest its stance on migration makes that a no-go area. A veterinary agreement would also raise the question of whether the UK is willing to follow EU standards. Party insiders point to Starmer’s insistence that “we will not be a rule-taker”. The elections expert Rob Ford, of UK in a Changing Europe, says Labour’s approach is sensible in electoral terms. “It plays well in Dudley and Nuneaton and Leigh and all these other places that are much more Leave-heavy,” he says. Voters who want a closer EU relationship tend to be concentrated in seats that Labour already holds. Ford raises the question of whether the same will be true in the medium term, given Labour’s reliance on growth as a way to square the circle between threadbare public services and Reeves’s determination not to raise key taxes. “Once Labour is the incumbent, they’re going to be judged on performance, and they’re going to be judged on economic growth,” he says. The economist John Springford, of the Centre for European Reform, whose estimates suggest UK gross domestic product is perhaps 5% smaller than it would otherwise be as a result of Brexit, says Labour’s plans are unlikely to move the dial on growth. “I’m more bullish on the UK economy than a lot of people, but if Labour’s whole mission is ‘We need to get the growth rate up’, then single market-customs union is what you need to do. But the political problems with that are obviously huge,” he says. Those problems may start to shift if Labour wins power. Ford argues that if the polls are correct, the battleground of the general election at the end of Labour’s first term would be southern England, where Labour looks likely to pick up a swath of seats. “The pivot point of the entire political conversation, the fulcrum of the electorate, will move a long way in a kind of progressive, pro-European direction,” he argues. Similarly, if Labour rebounds strongly in Scotland, many of its new MPs may face opposition from SNP rivals who have made Brexit a key issue. Like Khan in London, who calls himself a “proud remainer”, the Scottish Labour leader, Anas Sarwar, has called for “greater alignment around the single market and customs union”, underlining the distinct tone to the debate north of the border. Labour in government could also face pressure from its own MPs to embrace closer EU ties. The Labour Movement for Europe, chaired by the backbencher Stella Creasy, is signing up candidates. “We have a choice: we can go quicker or slower in fixing the mess. The quicker we go, the better the benefits for the British public,” she says. “People will start to join the dots: our relationship with Europe is at the heart of the frustrations they face, whether rising food prices and food shortages, travel backlogs, lost business, or lost influence about the world around us. That is only going to grow stronger.” Starmer’s determination to take the heat out of Brexit for his party has helped propel Labour to the brink of power. But once he gets there, not everyone will consider the issue settled.