It was the day before the Queen’s funeral that Ireland finally got the signal it was waiting for – Liz Truss was in the market for a deal over the Northern Ireland protocol. As is often the case, it was not so much what Truss said but what she did not say, said one source, that made it clear the UK was ready to end its 20-month standoff and resume talks with the EU. There has been no compromise on either side in terms of red lines. There is a recognition by both sides that the protocol as it stands does not command cross-community support and the Northern Ireland protocol bill remains in the background. So why has the mood music changed so much that rancour has given way to nervous optimism that a deal on the protocol could be sealed? One government source said that upon Truss’s arrival in office she had to make a calculated decision on her priorities. “There is limited bandwidth in terms of what she can do in foreign affairs,” the source said. As foreign secretary Truss had licence from Boris Johnson to talk tough on Brexit but as prime minister she is now faced with enormous issues – the economy and the cost of living crisis – that will influence the party’s fate in the next general election. As one former senior cabinet minister said: “Brexit will not be the issue on the doorsteps in 2024.”
The war in Ukraine has also focused minds, acting as a reminder on both sides of the need for strong relations between the EU and the UK in the face of efforts by Vladimir Putin to divide the west and undermine democratic values. The opportunity to be a deal-maker in a wartime era is not lost on Truss who on Thursday attends the inaugural meeting of the European Political Community, a new body driven by the French president, Emmanuel Macron, aimed at cementing relations between the EU and non-member states. As recently as her trip to the US, she was telling people she had no interest in attending the summit. Now there is even talk that she wants the UK to host the next meeting. In other words, the outbreak of peace over the Northern Ireland row is part of a wider reset moment for the UK’s relations with the EU after six years of rancour over Brexit. The Biden administration also raised the protocol with Truss in her first bilateral talks with the US president amid concerns that the Good Friday agreement, which Joe Biden considers to be a world model for peace settlements, was being threatened by an extended row over the protocol. The EU has also indicated it is willing to compromise. Privately it has been saying this for the past year but has refused to talk about it publicly while the UK maintained its standoff. Sources say the EU only widened the scope for the talks in the past few weeks, after signals from the UK that it would like to resume discussions. The change of personnel of the team dealing with Northern Ireland has also proved a game changer. The former Northern Ireland secretary Brandon Lewis never had the power or confidence to break the deadlock. “He was a mudguard for Boris [Johnson],” said one source. The new Northern Ireland secretary, Chris Heaton-Harris, is said to be in a different league, exuding the confidence expected of a former chief whip. He has already hinted at the prospect of a two-stage deal. The first stage would involve a new EU-UK position that would be sufficiently accommodating to the unionist parties and would allow the Democratic Unionist party to return to Stormont by 28 October, the deadline for power sharing in Northern Ireland. The second phase would “allow all other elements that we need to get for the people of Northern Ireland to be got back”. James Cleverly, the UK foreign secretary, will meet his Irish counterpart on Thursday night to formally reopen the talks over Northern Ireland. He made this clear on Monday night at an EU drinks reception in Birmingham. “I absolutely do want to make sure … that the relationship between the UK and the EU at institutional level goes from strength to strength to strength,” he said, adding that it was the “smart thing to do”. It is thought the initial talks will centre on the plan for talks that could go on for months.