The Conservatives are rerouting resources to defend at least three seats held by cabinet ministers with majorities of more than 20,000 as the party retreats to safer ground. Tory activists and candidates in nearby areas have been diverted to campaign for James Cleverly, the home secretary, Oliver Dowden, the deputy prime minister, and Steve Barclay, the environment secretary. Cleverly held his Braintree constituency by 24,673 votes in 2019, but some senior Tories believe the Essex seat, which elected Labour MPs in 1997 and 2001, could be vulnerable. Barclay held his North East Cambridgeshire seat by 29,993 votes in 2019 and Dowden held Hertsmere in Hertfordshire by 21,313. Neither constituency has ever returned a Labour MP before. All three seats are in the southern Tory heartlands, which Labour is heavily targeting at this election. They have been altered by the boundary review, but still have Conservative majorities of more than 20,000, according to 2019 modelled results for new boundaries. A Conservative party spokesperson said: “The Conservatives are campaigning to win as many seats as possible. It is common practice for all political parties to keep their campaigns under review.” One Tory activist said that supporters in neighbouring constituencies had been asked to go to Braintree and help the campaign, a claim denied by Cleverly’s constituency chair. A Tory source insisted that Cleverly had been out campaigning in Braintree several days each week, despite some local activists voicing concerns that he was too busy helping in other seats and running the Home Office. “James has already been and will continue to be actively busy campaigning in his constituency,” the source said. “He has also been supporting Conservative candidates around the UK, and of course as home secretary he still has a job to do. He has not restricted his efforts in Braintree at all and any suggestion he has is complete nonsense.”
Some Conservative candidates in seats with majorities of less than 10,000 have been asked whether they are prepared to give up on their local battle to help defend nearby constituencies that the party has a better chance of holding on to. With less than two weeks of campaigning to go, Labour remains 20 points ahead in the polls and is projected to win a landslide. Some Tories now think holding 150-odd seats would be a good result in the circumstances. The party won 165 seats in 1997 when Tony Blair won his first Labour landslide. There are even fears that Rishi Sunak’s seat could be vulnerable. The Guardian reported on Friday that activists in Yorkshire had been diverted to his Richmond constituency, which he won in 2019 with a majority of more than 27,000. The prime minister spent Sunday campaigning there. Conservative sources have denied that his seat was getting extra resources. Will Tanner, Sunak’s deputy chief of staff, said in a private message to activists on Monday that he was in danger of losing in Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket, Politico reported. Tanner was selected to contest the seat after the previous MP in the area, Jo Churchill, announced she was stepping down. Sunak and other ministers have taken to warning that electing Labour with a huge majority would give Starmer “a blank cheque”, effectively conceding that they are likely to lose the election. Labour is concerned that this is a Tory strategy designed to suppress voter turnout by convincing people the election result is a foregone conclusion. Labour figures stress that victory is not certain, and that small changes in voting intention could have a major impact. Shadow ministers have been emphasising the message that “change will only happen if you vote for it”. Conservative sources close to Dowden and Barclay denied they were getting extra support to retain their seats. A source close to Barclay said “no extra resources have been diverted to Steve’s campaign in North East Cambridgeshire.” • This article was amended on 25 June 2024. Remarks from a Conservative activist in Braintree, regarding James Cleverly’s campaigning in the constituency, have been edited as they could not be independently verified; and a response from a Tory source, received after publication, has been added.