Allies of Nigel Farage believe he will be unable to resist taking a prominent role for Reform UK’s imminent attempts to make the next election a referendum on “mass migration”. The former Brexit party leader did not rule out a return to frontline politics after he completed his appearance on I’m a Celebrity … Get Me Out of Here! earlier this month, though he dismissed the idea of rejoining the Conservatives under Rishi Sunak. However, figures close to him are increasingly confident that he will want to seize the opportunity to shape the next election with Reform UK. It is understood that the party is planning a press conference at the start of January to kick off its campaign to create an “immigration election” when voters go to the polls next year. It follows Tory infighting over Sunak’s plan to send some asylum seekers to Rwanda. The latest Opinium poll for the Observer puts Reform UK on 9% support. However, it also reveals that 37% of current Conservative voters would be more favourable towards Reform with Farage as leader.
The poll also shows a fifth of Reform voters would vote Conservative if their party was not on the ballot paper. While that suggests it is already holding down Tory support, the polling numbers involved were too small to draw firm conclusions. It seems unlikely that Farage – who has lost on each of the seven occasions he has stood to be an MP – will run for a Westminster seat, preferring a role that allows him to roam the country and attract the cameras, rather than be tied to a constituency. However, Farage’s allies believe Sunak’s decision to put his Rwanda plan at the heart of his programme for government has given him the chance to “shape politics” once again with a prominent campaign role. “He’s going to work out how and in what shape and style he puts his shoulder behind the wheel,” said an ally. “The idea that he would sit back and watch an election on his home turf – an immigration election – come and go is for the birds. He has talked about immigration for 15 to 20 years. Many of his predictions have now come true. He can have another significant influence in the debate and potentially demolish the Tories. “Whether the mainstream parties like it or not, we will turn this into an immigration election. The last one was a Brexit election. This will be an immigration election – both legal and illegal. Reform will pose a very simple question: who voted for mass immigration?” The party’s latest tactic has been to broaden its attack on immigration away from just the “small boats” crossing the Channel that Sunak has pledged to eliminate, to a wider criticism on the overall numbers coming to the UK. Net migration to the UK hit a record 745,000 in 2022.
Reform’s leader Richard Tice has already made clear there will be no deals with the Tories before the next election as there was in 2019. He has also said he would reject a peerage or any other attempt to induce his party to stand aside. While Reform’s national poll rating remains low, many Tories are already concerned about its possible impact on their party’s performance. Meanwhile, continued Tory wrangling over the Rwanda bill also presents Farage with an opportunity to appeal to voters from the right.While No 10 was delighted that no Conservatives voted against the Rwanda bill, winning a 44-vote majority, there will be attempts to amend the proposals in the new year. Tory MPs also suspect that the left and right of the party have been given contradictory guarantees about the changes the government would accept. Any greater involvement by Farage in the new year would cause further anxiety among many Tories on the right, who believe the Rwanda issue was completely mismanaged by Downing Street. Other senior Tories were baffled that Sunak has spent so much time on a divisive issue within his own party. According to Opinium, reducing illegal immigration to the UK is the fourth highest priority for the public. Some 36% selected it as a priority before the next general election, up from 33% in mid-November. While 49% of voters think the Conservatives under Sunak generally prefer lower immigration, only 16% think they have a plan to achieve it. Just 26% think Labour under Keir Starmer generally prefers higher levels of immigration, with 34% believing he prefers lower levels.