Rishi Sunak will try to calm Conservative jitters over his leadership this week as he faces yet more speculation over whether Tory MPs could try to oust him from Downing Street before the election. The prime minister’s allies fought a rearguard action over the weekend. Mark Harper, the transport secretary, urged anxious colleagues to “have some confidence” in the party leadership and to stay the course, telling them that “politics is a team game”. Harper insisted Sunak would lead the Conservative party into an election at the end of the year despite reports of rebellious MPs plotting to oust him to avoid wipeout at the polls. Senior ministers acknowledged, however, that Sunak had faced a difficult few days with the Tory donor racism row, the defection of Lee Anderson to Reform and his budget failing to move the dial in the polls. However, they said Tory MPs should “hold their nerve” as the party’s only real shot at the next election was the economy gradually improving. One cabinet minister said it would be “absolutely disastrous” to change leader again before an election while another warned against “getting stuck in a doom loop” of despair.
Sunak is facing another challenging week: his Rwanda deportation bill returns to the Commons on Monday and he is due to appear in front of febrile Tory backbenchers at the 1922 committee on Wednesday. Government ministers have spent the weekend attempting to bolster Sunak’s position. “He will take us into that election and he will set out very clearly that we’re a government with a plan,” Harper told Sky News. “I’m going to be supporting him all the way through, and I’m confident that my colleagues will.” He added: “What I would say to all of my colleagues is this: I spend my time as transport secretary focusing on doing what I think is the right thing for the country, making decisions that I think are sensible. That is the approach that the PM takes as well. He focuses on making the right decisions.” Even the former Tory party leader Iain Duncan Smith, a right-winger who is not a natural bedfellow of Sunak, told MPs to “stop turning inwards on ourselves” and said the public needed to see a united party. There has been speculation in recent days that some MPs on the right of the party want Penny Mordaunt, the leader of the Commons, to act as a “stalking horse” candidate to trigger a leadership contest before the next general election. Mordaunt has not made any public comment about the claims but her supporters said she was not party to or aware of any plot, and that she believed the stories were an attempt by rightwing rivals to damage any challenge she may make in future. Several Tory MPs maintain Mordaunt has been “on manoeuvres” for months, making clear she would be happy to visit MPs’ constituencies and get to know their local party officials. Kemi Badenoch, Suella Braverman and Grant Shapps are also believed to be interested in running if or when Sunak goes. “Whether we are out of power for five or 10 years depends on how we behave in the next six months,” one former minister said. “The madness of this party and some of my colleagues never ceases to surprise me so I fear maybe it is about to get out of hand and a leadership contest triggered.” There was further dismay among Tory MPs over seat-by-seat private polling that the Mail on Sunday said showed the Tories were heading for the worst defeat in their history, with Labour on course for a 250-seat majority and the Conservatives predicted to win fewer than 150. There was also anger over Downing Street’s handling of the Frank Hester row. The transport secretary denied on Sunday that the Conservatives had a race problem. Samuel Kasumu, a former No 10 race adviser, told the BBC he was “frustrated and disappointed” by the party’s response to the scandal, adding: “The problem is not just the prime minister, it’s also his advisers, people who were my former colleagues. I just do not know what they’re playing at. We have to do better.” Rishi Sunak has been under pressure to hand back at least £10m of donations from Hester after the Guardian reported that the businessman had said looking at the MP Diane Abbott makes you “want to hate all black women” and that she “should be shot”. Hester has apologised for the remarks, but denied they were motivated by race or gender. Senior Tories played down the prospects of another contest. One cabinet minister told the Guardian: “There’s no question of the party going for another leader before the next election. The impact would be absolutely disastrous. Some are just trying to deliberately cause trouble, which is self-indulgence of the highest order.” Another cabinet minister said: “We’re in a very depressing situation but the problem is there aren’t any easy choices in politics and Rishi is badly advised. But we need to hold our nerve and turn our scrutiny on the opposition.” A Downing Street source said: “The majority of MPs want to support the PM and put on a united front. We need that to win and that’s what he’s determined to lead”. • This article was amended on 18 March 2023. The private polling reported by the Mail on Sunday showed Labour on course to win a 250-seat majority, not “to win 250 seats”, as an earlier version said.