Jeremy Hunt is expected to stand down as an MP before the next election, according to senior Conservatives, who say the chancellor is aware he could suffer a “Michael Portillo” moment on polling day. Hunt has already put himself forward and been selected for the new Surrey constituency of Godalming and Ash, after his South West Surrey seat was dissolved and split into two under boundary changes. His spokesman said on Friday that his position remained that he would stand. But with his party in increasingly dire straits as byelection defeats mount up, and Labour’s poll lead solidifying, several senior sources nationally and locally have told the Observer that they expect him to announce he is stepping down much nearer to the election.
Rumours have been swirling among Surrey Conservatives and at Westminster to this effect, amid cataclysmic predictions of wipeout for several serving cabinet ministers after more than 13 years in power. One former minister said that with a Labour government in prospect, the options for Hunt of fighting the new seat were not attractive, whether he won or lost: “Barring a miracle [of the Tories winning and forming another government], I can’t see Jeremy wanting to be in opposition under a new leader. And if he loses he will be the biggest scalp on election night. That is not a departure anyone would want. People in Surrey are saying he will not stand.” Were Hunt to stand down, it would raise questions as to whether he could remain chancellor in the run-up to the general election. Hunt had a successful business career before entering politics and would expect to be elevated to the House of Lords were he to leave the Commons, allowing him to retain a political role alongside his commercial interests. Last weekend the Liberal Democrats confirmed that Hunt’s old political adversary in Surrey, Paul Follows, the Liberal Democrat leader on Waverley council, had been chosen as its candidate for the Godalming and Ash seat. Minutes after being selected, Follows told the local party that he would “work to ensure that the Portillo moment in the public mindset will become the Hunt moment”. Another former Tory minister said: “Of course Jeremy cannot say so now, but I think he won’t stand. It is not uncommon to pull out having said you will stand, citing changes of circumstances. Short of turning things round and winning, and him remaining chancellor, which is not exactly likely, there is nothing in it for him.” Follows told the Observer: “Jeremy Hunt is right to be concerned about losing the contest, and certainly right to be worried about ending up on the backbenches if somehow he won it.” Recent polls have suggested that several cabinet ministers including Hunt, party chairman Greg Hands, the deputy prime minister Oliver Dowden, and leader of the House of Commons Penny Mordaunt – as well as Hunt – could lose their seats at the next election. A special MRP poll published recently by the Observer, which took into account the new boundaries that the next election will be fought on, suggested Labour would win 420 seats – equating to a landslide 190-seat majority. According to the poll the Tories would take just 149 seats and the Lib Dems 23, with the result similar to Labour’s 1997 landslide when Tony Blair’s party secured a majority of 179 with 418 seats. The Conservatives would lose all their “red wall” seats and 20 behind the “blue wall”, which would include ones in Surrey. Hunt has served as MP for South West Surrey since 2005 when he won with a majority of 5,711. In the 2010 election he increased this to 16,318 and then further to 28,556 in 2015. However, in the 2017 election his majority was cut to 21,590 and then to 8,817 in 2019 as the Lib Dem vote increased. As chancellor he is currently under pressure from Tory MPs to improve the economy before polling day, and deliver on prime minister Rishi Sunak’s pledges to cut inflation and reduce debt.