Liz Truss has fought a “war on nature” unique in recent British politics, managing within a few short weeks to incur the wrath of conservation groups with more than 8 million members, foreign governments, climate activists and members of her own party. Her successor may be expected to learn from this chastening experience and adopt a less confrontational attitude. They will also face some key early decisions: Cop27 starts on 6 November, when the UK will hand over presidency of the global UN climate talks to Egypt. Truss raised eyebrows in capitals across the world when she refused to say whether she would attend, and her barring King Charles from going got an even worse reaction. The new prime minister could repair the damage by confirming attendance and reversing the decision on the King. Also imminent is a decision on a potential new coalmine in Cumbria, a key test of the government’s target to reach net zero emissions by 2050. Truss provoked the rage of the RSPB, National Trust and Wildlife Trusts, as well as scores of other groups, by threatening to rip up more than 570 rules inherited from the EU on environmental protection. She proposed new investment zones with minimal regulation, scrapping the new farming payment system and restarting fracking.
The next prime minister will also have to decide whether to carry on with those policies, or to ditch them for the sake of party unity and electability – there is plenty to show that taking a greener turn could be an advantage. Cutting energy use will be essential to keeping the lights on this winter, and renewable energy is up to nine times cheaper than gas at present, so measures that increase efficiency and spur more clean energy production will pay off rapidly. But Truss binned a proposed public information campaign on energy saving and refused to address insulation for Britain’s draughty homes, despite expert advice that this would be the surest way to bring down bills. She also sought to block the development of solar farms.
U-turns on these issues could be popular. Green policies have wide support: polls consistently show a majority of voters want to see action on the climate crisis, while issues such as sewage being discharged into rivers and on to beaches have led to strong reactions around the country. The new prime minister is also certain to shake up the cabinet, which could create openings for some greener-minded Tories than the current crop. But while candidates for the top job might seek to burnish their green credentials, such efforts may be taken with a degree of scepticism, given Truss’s recent example. When considering the candidates’ environmental records ahead of the last leadership contest, the Guardian marked her down as the one of the least green, scoring one point out of a possible five. Her allies were soon sent out to claim she had played a major role in Cop26, laud her record as environment secretary and assert her strong commitment to the net zero target. In the televised debates she even said a key aim was to prevent Alok Sharma from resigning, which the cabinet’s climate chief had threatened to do if candidates backtracked on the UK’s commitments. So how do the most probable candidates this time round fare? Rishi Sunak While chancellor, Sunak stood in the way of policies that would have reduced greenhouse gas emissions but at an upfront cost to the Treasury – chief among them, a nationwide programme of insulation to replace the botched green homes grant. That was a serious mistake, as it left the UK lacking any real insulation policy just as energy bills began to soar. His windfall tax on oil and gas companies, reluctantly brought in, also contained large loopholes allowing companies to reinvest in fossil fuels. As the UK was preparing to host the Cop26 UN climate summit, he slashed overseas aid, to the dismay of developing countries. Green score: 2/5 Boris Johnson
Despite his many flaws, Johnson achieved the passage of three major pieces of environmental legislation, set genuinely world-beating targets on emissions and the phaseout of diesel and petrol cars, banned fracking and was lauded around the world for the UK’s management of the Cop26 summit in Glasgow. But he also allowed new oil and gas licensing in the North Sea, failed to remove the planning barriers to onshore windfarms and dithered over a potential new coalmine in Cumbria. As he fought to save his premiership, green Tories warned he would be sorely missed. Green score: 4/5 Penny Mordaunt
Mordaunt has said she would create “millions of green jobs” as prime minister, and during the last leadership contest gave an interview to the Guardian in which she committed to the nature-friendly farming scheme set up by Gove. “Environmentalism and conservatism go hand in hand,” she said. “And [it] is a core principle of who I am, someone dedicated to the future of our world and the legacy we leave.” However, she is enthusiastic about cutting fuel duty and her summer campaign was supported by the motorist lobby group Fair Fuel UK. Green score: 3/5 Kemi Badenoch
Badenoch is likely to have to answer questions on this issue again should she stand for leader. This is because of her astonishing double U-turn on net zero during the last leadership race. At the beginning of the summer contest, she likened the target to “unilateral economic disarmament” and claimed it would “bankrupt” the country. But then, under the gaze of Sharma at a climate hustings, she backtracked, pledging to keep the 2050 target if she became prime minister. However, that very evening, she appeared on GB News and said she would delay climate action. Green score: 0/5