Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng will refuse to release independent analysis of their tax plans until more than six weeks after receiving them, despite more calls from Tory MPs for Downing Street to reassure the markets. The prime minister and chancellor said they would only publish the independent forecasts on 23 November alongside a fiscal statement, despite them being ready on 7 October. Several Conservative MPs have already urged Truss and Kwarteng to allow the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) – the UK’s independent fiscal watchdog – to reveal its forecasts as soon as possible, including Mel Stride, the chair of the Treasury committee. Peter Aldous, another Tory MP, said on Friday that the fiscal plan with new rules should be “brought forward”. Writing for the House magazine, he said: “Time is running out to show the British people that the Conservative party deserves to retain the honour of serving as their government.” Another Tory MP, Charles Walker, conceded the party had lost the next election and said the government had a “duty to the country to get the public finances in the best shape possible” before it lost. However, Truss and Kwarteng do not appear to be bowing to pressure from their party. The pair met the chair of the OBR, Richard Hughes, on Friday after a week of turmoil in the markets in response to Kwarteng’s mini-budget promising tax cuts funded by borrowing, without any accompanying independent growth forecasts.
After the mini-budget, the pound plunged, mortgage rates soared and the Bank of England had to stage an emergency £65bn intervention to bail out pension funds.
The Treasury has been facing calls from its select committee to allow the OBR to release forecasts earlier to reassure the markets, public and parliament that the government’s plan will lead to higher growth. However, Truss and Kwarteng appear to be holding firm against that idea. The pound, which hit a one-week high of $1.1235 at 10am on Friday, has dipped back into negative territory against the dollar. It is trading 0.1% lower at $1.1101. The Treasury said Truss, Kwarteng and Hughes had “discussed the process for the upcoming economic and fiscal forecast, which will be published on 23 November, and the economic and fiscal outlook”. “They agreed, as is usual, to work closely together throughout the forecast process and beyond,” it said. “The prime minister and chancellor reaffirmed their commitment to the independent OBR and made clear that they value its scrutiny.” Following the meeting, the OBR confirmed its forecast would be ready to deliver to the chancellor on 7 October and would “as always, be based on our independent judgment about economic and fiscal prospects and the impact of the government’s policies”. In a statement after the meeting, which appeared to last less than 50 minutes, the OBR said: “We discussed the economic and fiscal outlook, and the forecast we are preparing for the chancellor’s medium-term fiscal plan. “We will deliver the first iteration of that forecast to the chancellor on Friday 7 October and will set out the full timetable up to 23 November next week. In interviews on Friday, Truss showed no sign of rowing back from the controversial mini-budget. She also insisted there could not have been a full forecast produced by the OBR in time for last week’s fiscal event, even though the public finance watchdog said it had prepared interim figures that were ready to be published. “In that timescale, there couldn’t be a full OBR forecast but we are committed to the OBR forecast,” she said. “We are working together with the OBR. There will be an event on November 23 where the policies are fully analysed by the OBR. “But it was a real priority to me to make sure we are working to help struggling families.” Conservative MPs are still furious with Truss over the party’s falling poll ratings and the market turmoil, which they think has damaged the Conservatives’ reputation on economic credibility. However, Tory critics of Truss believe there is very little they can do, save rally behind a few symbolic rebellions on bankers’ bonuses and the 45p tax rate cut. “Their zeal for this agenda is religious; the PM doesn’t have an apologetic bone in her body,” said one former minister. “Everyone has completely lost confidence in Kwasi and therefore Liz. The only thing they can do now is stick to their guns – and either we’ll all go down in flames or it works.” Another MP said it was time to “let her own the moment”. “A lot of us warned this would happen and would have wanted to make her plans work had we been asked,” they said, with a sigh. “But instead we’re going to sit back, let events take place and hope for the best.” However, one Truss supporter said they were confident the Tories’ disastrous polling could recover, and pointed out most of the cost of Kwarteng’s mini-budget was on helping keep energy bills down and reversing two broken manifesto pledges. “We’ve walked into a political trap,” they said. “Now every time interest rates go up, it’ll be the fault of the Tories.” They called threats of disgruntled colleagues putting no-confidence letters in “not serious” and “pathetic”. Meanwhile, a Tory source said MPs were being hauled before their local association executive committees to hear their justifications for the government’s plans. “They’re all scared as they’re getting a lot of heat,” the source said, adding that members were “dropping like flies”. A party conference organiser who has been involved in trying to book MPs for fringe events said the list of those not going was believed to include more than 75.