Labour surged into a commanding nine-point lead over the Tories this weekend as controversies over rule-breaking Christmas parties at Downing Street and Tory sleaze plunged Boris Johnson into a battle to save his premiership. The latest Opinium poll for the Observer also shows 57% of voters think Johnson should now resign, up nine points from a fortnight ago, as the prime minister appears to be haemorrhaging public support. Johnson’s personal ratings have fallen to -35%, down 14 points from what was already a record low of -21% two weeks ago. Asked which of three Covid-19 related scandals had shocked them more – the No 10 staff Christmas party last year, the Dominic Cummings trip to Barnard Castle or the Matt Hancock/Gina Coladangelo affair, the Downing Street party comfortably topped the list. Fifty-one percent of people polled said they found that event most shocking, following by 28% for the Cummings trip and 21% for the Hancock controversy. Adam Drummond of Opinium said the fall was “devastating” and noted that high numbers of Conservatives had moved to the undecided column. While he said Johnson was known for comebacks and Labour was by no means free of problems of its own, Drummond added that “unless the Conservatives can turn these numbers around quickly, backbenchers might start asking if the party is over for the prime minister”. The poll puts Labour on 41%, with its nine-point lead being the biggest Opinium has recorded since 2014. The Tories are now on 32%, their lowest score since 2019, while the Liberal Democrats are on 9% (+1), the SNP 5% (unchanged) and the Greens 5% (-1). The findings are likely to increase anger within the Conservative party over last week’s revelations about parties at No 10, which followed weeks of denials by Downing Street, and also follow suggestions that Johnson misled his own standards adviser, Lord Geidt, over the arrangements for the refurbishment of his Downing Street flat. Opinium found that 60% of people now believe the UK will go into another lockdown in the next three months. The controversies reached new heights in an extraordinary week for the prime minister, during which his wife, Carrie, gave birth to their second child, and he was confronted by intense anger from his backbenchers over new Covid restrictions aimed at holding back the spread of the Omicron variant. Johnson is facing a potentially damaging rebellion by his own MPs on Tuesday, when the measures will be voted on in parliament. Then on Thursday he is facing the prospect of possible defeat at the hands of the Liberal Democrats in the normally rock-solid Tory seat of North Shropshire in a byelection caused by the resignation of Owen Paterson, who was found to have broken parliamentary lobbying rules. A memo to staff from the Liberal Democrat high command on Friday revealed that according to responses it had reviewed from voters who intend to cast a ballot on Thursday, the Tories – who enjoyed a 23,000 majority at the last election – now have a lead of just one point. The Lib Dem projection puts the Tories on 40%, the Lib Dems on 39% and Labour on 12%, with Reform UK and the Greens on 4% each.
Defeat in the seat would trigger something close to panic among Tory MPs, who only six months ago were mostly willing to stand by Johnson despite the controversies that follow him, because they saw him as a winner with the public. For much of October, and following the conference season, Johnson’s party enjoyed a lead of four or five points in Opinium’s survey. Since then the collapse has caused serious alarm at all levels of the party. Asked about the prospect of a Tory rebellion on Tuesday, communities secretary Michael Gove said he was confident MPs would examine proposals for new restrictions “seriously, soberly and thoughtfully” in light of the way Omicron had been spreading across the UK. Johnson’s critics on the backbenches say they expect several disgruntled MPs to send letters of no confidence to the backbench 1922 committee chairman, Sir Graham Brady, in the coming days, unless the prime minister can rapidly steady the ship.