Rishi Sunak was desperate to downplay suggestions of a reset – but this week’s Conservative party conference in Manchester was undoubtedly meant to be a turning point in his premiership. Stepping out of the shadow of his predecessors and presenting his leadership as a clear change from the past 13 years of Conservative governments were the prime minister’s aims. And with the Tories’ poll ratings stubbornly poor, Sunak knew it was “do or die” time, insiders said. But despite Downing Street’s efforts to buoy the spirits of MPs, one admitted: “It just feels like a really boozy wake.”
After the drama of last year’s conference during Liz Truss’s short-lived premiership, senior Tories were keen to brush off the disturbances that overshadowed this year’s gathering of the party faithful. Rows over the future of HS2, unhappy former cabinet ministers clamouring for tax cuts, jostling by future potential leadership contenders, as well as Tory infighting over migration and LGBT+ rights dominated the headlines. On day one of conference, a poll by Opinium for the Observer showing that the gap between Labour and the Tories had narrowed to 10 points was quoted frequently at drinks receptions by Sunak’s allies as evidence his plan was working. “What we need to do is stop being so shit and then people will see how shit the Labour party is. But we need to stop being so shit first,” was one cabinet minister’s blunt assessment. Tory strategists wanted to keep the focus relentlessly on Sunak, given his personal ratings are higher than the party’s and a belief that enthusiasm for Labour is lacking. Few policy announcements were made by the cabinet – and mooted major fiscal moves, such as abolishing inheritance tax, were held back for closer to the election. But to the horror of Sunak’s allies, Truss turned up on Monday to host a rally lambasting her successor. She even signed a copy of the mini-budget, presented to her by a fan. A less-than-impressed Ben Houchen, the Tory Tees Valley mayor, said she should show Sunak the same respect he did by staying away after losing in last year’s leadership contest, adding he “thought she would have had more awareness”. It was not just Truss breathing down Sunak’s neck. The spectre of HS2 – a totemic Tory policy – hung over conference.
Ministers were unable to capitalise on the media focus afforded by conference, and complained that apparent “indecision” by Sunak was distracting from the policies that were being announced. When Sunak addressed a group of Tory councillors on Monday night, some reported feeling less than impressed at his efforts to boost their spirits by repeating claims to have scrapped plans for households to have seven recycling bins – something that had never been policy. On Tuesday evening, Sunak skipped the annual drinks reception with senior journalists. People who did see him that evening said he was prickly and defensive about HS2, determined to wait to set out the details about its future in his conference speech. Activists also failed to be won over. “The two people at the top of the party – Rishi and Jeremy Hunt – were literally rejected by the members in the last two leadership ballots,” said one disgruntled figure in the party’s voluntary wing. “They’ve got a lot of work to do.” The most worrying wobble for No 10 during conference came when Andy Street, the Tory mayor of the West Midlands, broke his silence over the future of HS2. Figures close to Street said he had agreed not to criticise the reported plans to scrap the northern leg, in order to keep channels with Sunak open, in the hope that the move could be averted. Getting nowhere, Street arranged an impromptu press conference at half an hour’s notice on Monday, where he said curtailing HS2 would betray the levelling up agenda. He notably refused to rule out resigning. Though Street did not resign after Sunak formally announced his HS2 plans, David Cameron broke cover to say the move was the very opposite of a long-term decision and would be seized on by opponents who claim the Tories are still bogged down in internal turmoil. Sunak’s aides downplayed the row. In fact, some are secretly happy, believing it is a clear demonstration to the public that he represents a change from the past 13 years of Tory governments. Some ministers also walked away from Tory conference feeling more confident in Sunak’s strategy, which has pleased Number 10. Tory strategists are desperate to avoid the feeling of fatalism that crept in some Labour quarters when the 2010 election was approaching. One Downing Street source said: “Back then, Labour thought they were going to get smashed and started to give up. It ended up being a lot closer than expected, and they all wished they’d fought harder as it could have closed the gap even further. We can’t do the same thing.”