Results from local elections held across England on Thursday appear to confirm that Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives are on their way out of power after 14 years. The party, which brought the world Brexit, has been consistently trailing its main rival, Labour, led by Keir Starmer, by about 20 points in opinion polls. Voters took part in elections for local councils and regional mayoralties, which hold a patchwork of powers after a concerted phase of devolution over recent years. With more than half of the results declared, the Conservatives had lost more than 200 local councillors, with many more expected to follow as results continue to be counted. The elections expert John Curtice put the Conservatives’ share of the vote at just 25%, matching the nadir hit in local elections in 1995 by the Conservative prime minister John Major, soon to be swept out of power by Tony Blair.
Labour was able to point to victories in many parts of England currently represented by Conservative MPs at Westminster, from Hartlepool in the north-east to Worthing on the south coast. With a general election due to be held by January at the latest, and widely expected in the autumn, Labour hopes to replicate its success in these and many other areas. Starmer’s party has also recently drawn ahead of the Scottish National party (SNP) in opinion polls in Scotland. No elections were held there this week, but Labour hopes to make significant gains in Scotland at the next general election. The SNP leader, Humza Yousaf, resigned this week after abruptly collapsing a coalition deal with the Green party – adding to Labour’s hopes it can build Scottish support. As local election results poured in throughout Friday, Sunak’s party held on to a key regional mayoralty: the former industrial heartlands of Tees Valley in the north-east, where the Conservative incumbent, Ben Houchen, has a strong local following. But Labour pointed to the significant swing in support against Houchen. The party also secured victories of its own in the race for new regional mayoralties in the East Midlands, and York and North Yorkshire – the latter where Sunak’s own constituency lies. At the last UK general election in 2019, the then prime minister, Boris Johnson, ran a boisterous campaign based on the slogan “get Brexit done”, which promised an “oven ready” trade deal with the EU. But since the Covid pandemic, and with the UK economy in recession, voters have appeared more concerned with the rising cost of living and the run-down state of many public services. The Conservative party has also presided over a period of political chaos, with Johnson forced out by his own party after breaking the Covid rules he set, only to be succeeded by the disastrous premiership of Liz Truss, who crashed the financial markets with unfunded spending promises and resigned after 49 days. Sunak has sought to steady the ship, highlighting a tough stance on illegal migration and recent tax cuts in an attempt to win back disillusioned voters, and said on Friday he was “focused on the job at hand”. But there was little evidence in these elections to shake the widely held conviction that within a few short months, Starmer will be the UK’s prime minister.