The lockdown could shrink GDP by 35% in the second quarter of the year but bounce back quickly and unemployment could rise by 2 million, according to the results of a coronavirus scenario published by the Office for Budget Responsibility. This is not a forecast nor an official government prediction, but a scenario illustrating the possible effects on the economy and public finances of a three-month shutdown and the government’s policy responses. The UK’s hospital death toll surpassed 12,000 as a further 778 hospital deaths were recorded, taking the total to 12,107. Actual coronavirus-related deaths could be 15% higher than daily government figures suggest, said an ONS report. Nick Stripe, head of health analysis and life events at the ONS said: “The latest comparable data for deaths involving Covid-19 with a date of death up to 3 April, show there were 6,235 deaths in England and Wales. When looking at data for England, this is 15% higher than the NHS numbers as they include all mentions of Covid-19 on the death certificate, including suspected Covid-19, as well as deaths in the community.” Separately, the latest weekly ONS figures suggest 10% of coronavirus deaths are occurring outside a hospital setting. Of those, more than half were in care homes, with the rest in private homes and hospices. The figures cover the week ending 3 April, making them almost two weeks out of date. With the true picture likely much worse, Labour is calling for daily publication of figures showing coronavirus-related deaths in care homes. Two of the UK’s largest care home providers recorded deaths of 521 residents in recent weeks, fuelling claims the official figures are understating the prevalence of coronavirus in care homes. Sir David Behan, non-executive director of HC-One, said Covid-19 was present in two-thirds (232) of its care homes with 2,447 suspected cases and 311 residents had died along with one member of staff. MHA, another leading provider, said Covid-19 had affected about half of its homes and was linked to 210 deaths. Many thanks to everyone who got in touch with tips and suggestions – your input is invaluable. That’s it from us here on the UK side, but if you’d like to you can continue following the Guardian’s worldwide coronavirus coverage over on our global live blog.