Labour is perceived by voters as far more divided in the wake of party splits over the conflict in Israel and Gaza, amid concerns that there may be further frontbench resignations on the issue this week. Keir Starmer has also taken a hit, with the latest Opinium poll for the Observer showing a slump in the proportion of voters who regard him as a strong leader compared with a month ago. However, the latest poll also suggests that the Tories’ internal rows have ensured that the party has failed to benefit from the first major challenge to Starmer’s authority among his MPs. Labour leads by 17 points over the Conservatives. While Labour’s overall lead has not been affected by its position on the Middle East conflict, Starmer’s refusal to back a ceasefire continues to cause concern among some senior figures, who fear he could find himself trailing behind other world leaders as pressure grows on Israel over its operations in Gaza. The French president, Emmanuel Macron, has already backed a ceasefire. But Labour insiders say Starmer is watching the US president, Joe Biden, more closely, while the shadow foreign secretary, David Lammy, has remained close in his language to the US secretary of state, Antony Blinken.
The next major challenge for Labour will come on Wednesday, when the SNP is engineering a vote on a ceasefire. Labour’s leadership is likely to tell its MPs to abstain, seeing it as a political trap. However, there are concerns that the sixth of the MPs on the frontbench who have signalled support for a ceasefire may feel obliged to support it. Only one frontbencher has resigned on the issue so far.
The latest Opinium polling shows Labour has taken a reputational hit from the splits. Its net score on being seen as united has fallen by 18 points since early October. Its net score as being tolerant is down by 12 points. Meanwhile, the perception of Starmer as a strong leader is 10 points down over the same period. However, Tory internal rows – particularly Suella Braverman’s attacks on the impartiality of the police and description of sleeping on the streets as a “lifestyle choice” – appear to have prevented Rishi Sunak’s party from making inroads into Labour’s overall lead. Both Starmer and Sunak have seen a fall in their personal approval ratings over the past fortnight. Starmer’s net approval rating sits at -9, while Sunak is languishing at -32. James Crouch, head of policy and public affairs at Opinium, said: “The government seems to have let Labour off the hook in what could have been a very difficult week for the opposition. Labour’s response to the conflict in the Middle East has made the party look less united, and Starmer look much weaker than before. However, by the end of the week, the news had moved on to Conservative divisions and indecision, leaving the door open to a 17-point Labour lead in the polls.”