There was no honeymoon period and precious little breathing room for Vaughan Gething to relish the historic achievement of becoming the first Black leader of a European country. Since he was chosen as Welsh Labour leader and first minister 11 weeks ago, Gething has faced a slew of allegations about donations, the deletion of messages during the pandemic and the sacking of a minister. On Wednesday he faces his most uncomfortable test yet, a vote on a motion of no confidence tabled by the Conservatives in the Senedd, the Welsh parliament. UK Labour leaders and strategists dismiss it as mischief-making but there is growing evidence in polling and doorstep conversations that the scandals are cutting through to voters. While it would be an exaggeration to say the issue was top of the agenda at Cardiff’s central market on Monday, people were aware of it. “They’re going to get rid of him, aren’t they?” said Tim Close, a butcher. “He took £200,000. That looks terrible. It’s a lot of money. If someone gives you that, they want something back.”
Lynette Ford, who has a knitting stall, said she had been pleased when Gething got in. “He seemed different but maybe they all just think of themselves.” Gething’s tenure has been overshadowed by £200,000 in donations he took from a company whose owner, David Neal, was convicted of dumping waste on the Gwent Levels in south Wales and criticised over a landfill site in Pembrokeshire described as a “stink bomb on steroids”. The first minister has repeatedly said he followed the rules. He has expressed regret at the impact the donations have had but has not returned the cash. Last month the pressure increased with the emergence of iMessages with fellow Labour members from the time of the pandemic, when Gething was the Welsh health minister, in which he said he was going to delete a thread, which led to suspicions of decisions being covered up. It got worse when Gething sacked his minister for social partnership, Hannah Blythyn, suggesting she had leaked the messages, which she denied. Within hours, Plaid Cymru had ended its cooperation agreement with the Welsh government, making it trickier for the government to operate as it does not have an overall Senedd majority. Now comes the confidence vote. The motion calls on the Senedd to recognise the “genuine public concern” over the donation and highlights the iMessages and the ministerial sacking. Andrew RT Davies, the leader of the Welsh Conservatives, said on Monday: “Vaughan Gething has a litany of questions to answer on his judgment, his transparency and his truthfulness.” Opposition parties will support the Tory motion. The Plaid leader, Rhun ap Iorwerth, said: “The first minister has undermined his own office.”
The balance of the Senedd is delicate. Labour holds half of the 60 seats and Gething is helped by the llywydd – the presiding officer – being a Plaid member. If the vote on the no confidence motion is tied, she will be obliged to vote against it under standing orders. Unless Labour members rebel, Gething should be safe. The vote, in any case, is not legally binding and does not automatically trigger a process to remove him. But it is likely to further undermine his authority. Over the last few years the Welsh government has felt much more stable than those in Westminster, Scotland or Northern Ireland. It begins to feel a little shaky now. The former Labour minister Leighton Andrews said he believed Labour members would rally against a Tory motion in the middle of an election. “What happens after the general election in the run-up to the next Senedd election [in 2026] is another matter entirely,” he said. It is not just in the Senedd that the issue is a live one. There are more than 4,000 signatures on two Gething petitions, one calling for a public inquiry into the donations, one for tighter rules around them. Whenever Keir Starmer and other UK leaders visit, they are asked about Gething’s position. A poll last month found that 70% of Welsh voters felt Gething should return the donation.
In Butetown, the old Cardiff dockside area and a Gething stronghold, there was some support for Gething. Mo, a student, said the first minister did a lot of good in the area. “He does his best for people around here, he has for years. Politics is a tough business. You need money to fight.” But Lyn Eynon, a former secretary of the Butetown branch of the Labour party, said: “For me, the main issue is not Vaughan Gething as an individual but the role of money in Welsh politics. It will be difficult for me to vote Labour this year, and I am seriously considering voting for another party for the first time.” Nerys Lloyd-Pierce, a Cardiff environment activist, said Gething had proved he did not care about preserving the natural world. “I will not be voting Labour, either in Wales or nationally, while Gething is in post,” she said. Anna-Louise Marsh-Rees, who leads Covid-19 Bereaved Families Cymru, said the iMessages were “the final straw” and he should have disclosed them before the Welsh leg of the Covid inquiry was heard in March. She said: “How can we now have any confidence in finding out what happened to our loved ones? It’s a heartbreaking blow for the Covid bereaved families in Wales and he’s lost our vote.”