Rishi Sunak has received no poll bounce after cutting taxes in last week’s autumn statement, according to the latest Opinium poll for the Observer. Following a week in which the chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, described a reduction in national insurance as “the biggest tax cut on work since the 1980s” Labour’s lead has increased to 16 percentage points over the Tories. Labour is on 42% (up two points compared with a week ago), the Conservatives are on 26% (-1), the Lib Dems 11% (-1), Reform 8% (-1) and the Greens are unchanged on 7%. Opinion among voters was divided on the autumn statement in which Hunt was able to reduce some taxes only by further squeezing departmental spending in future years. The Office for Budget Responsibility also took any gloss off Hunt’s announcements by making it clear that the overall burden of tax would still rise every year to a postwar high of 37.7% of GDP by 2028-29. Overall, 23% of people polled thought the autumn statement was good, against 27% who thought it was bad. Close to 50% were not sure. Decisions to raise the national living wage by almost 10% to £11.44 an hour, and the state pension by 8.5%, were the most popular, with 78% saying the former was a good idea and 71% the latter. About 63% thought cutting national insurance by 2% for employees from January was a good idea, while 17% thought it was a bad idea. Approximately 25% of voters approved of the way Jeremy Hunt is doing his job as chancellor, while 40% disapprove, a net score of -15. The shadow chancellor, Rachel Reeves, does better with 24% approving of her performance compared with 23% who disapprove (a net score of +1).
While more people back Labour to run the economy well than the Conservatives, Labour’s leads on questions relating to economic management have fallen. About 30% now support Labour to run the economy, against 26% who would prefer the Tories. When the same question was last asked by Opinium, in late October, Labour’s lead was 7%. Similar falls in Labour’s lead are recorded when voters are asked to choose between the two parties on issues such as which would spend public money more efficientlyor improve public services.