The Conservatives could benefit from a “vaccine bounce” in May’s local elections in England, a leading polling analyst has predicted, adding to Labour concerns about what will be seen as the first real test for Keir Starmer’s leadership. A recent shift in the polls towards the Conservatives had been driven by voters aged 55-plus, Robert Hayward said, noting that these were both the demographic who received their Covid vaccinations earliest, and also the group usually most likely to vote. On 6 May elections will take place in England, including in various council tiers, as well as several elections for mayors, and for police and crime commissioners (PCC). Scotland and Wales are holding elections on the same day for their parliaments, and for PCCs in Wales. With local elections postponed last year due to coronavirus, these will be for councillors first elected in 2016 and 2017, as well as more than 260 byelections caused by deaths or resignations, which have not yet been held. Traditionally, opposition parties have tended to do well in local elections, but this has not notably been the case for Labour since the party lost power nationally in 2010. While the lack of any recent elections made predictions tricky, said Hayward, who is a Conservative peer but is widely respected as an independent and authoritative elections pundit, one recent change has been national polling, which put Labour and the Tories almost level in December but is now showing a Conservative lead of 6-7%. A key element in this, Hayward told reporters in an election briefing, was data showing who had changed their support to boost the Tories: “And it is the oldest generations who have moved most markedly to the Conservatives – basically the cohort from 54 upwards. “Now the significant thing is, they are the people who vote in local elections. So not only has that group moved towards the Conservatives, or has the population moved towards the Conservatives, but the people who’ve moved most towards the Conservatives are actually the people who vote generally. “It is quite noticeable. It was first of all the age group from 64 upwards that moved. There’s some sign now that the 55-year-olds and upwards are also moving. “And interestingly enough, they are the people who have got their vaccinations. So there’s clearly an element of vaccine bounce. I think it goes hand in hand – I don’t think it’s chance.” The elections in England could prove complex in terms of voting and counts. In several areas, voters will have four ballot papers, while in Tower Hamlets in east London, this will be five – three for the London mayoralty and assembly, and two local referendums. Election officials have previously warned about potential chaos at polling stations and counts, caused by the need for Covid restrictions, and a possible lack of volunteers. Hayward said election-watchers should be braced for an almost complete lack of results on the night of 6 May, saying he knew of no areas planning an immediate count. He said: “I expect large numbers of counts to be running from Friday into Saturday, into Sunday and possibly into Monday and Tuesday.”