Three out of the four Tory MPs seen as the most likely replacements for Rishi Sunak would fare even worse than the current prime minister in a general election battle against Keir Starmer, according to the latest Opinium poll for the Observer. The Conservatives have been involved in a fresh bout of leadership speculation over the past week, after rumours surfaced of a plot to dump Sunak and replace him with Penny Mordaunt, the leader of the House, before the next election. But Opinium found that of the four most likely replacements for Sunak, were there to be a contest – Mordaunt, James Cleverly, the home secretary, Suella Braverman, the former home secretary, and Kemi Badenoch, the business and trade secretary – only Mordaunt would have any positive effect at all on the Tory vote.
And even then, the “Mordaunt bounce” would only be marginal and still end in a large defeat. When asked if voters would prefer a Tory government led by Sunak or a Labour one led by Starmer, Opinium found that Labour under Starmer would have a lead of 18 points. If Mordaunt were to lead the Tories against Starmer, Labour would be 15 points ahead. This would still mean a sizeable majority in the House of Commons. But if Braverman or Badenoch were to lead the Tories, the Labour lead would be even more, increasing to 24 points, and with Cleverly in charge it would go up to 21 points. Overall, when asked which party they intended to vote for, without citing current or potential leaders, Labour’s lead remained unchanged from a fortnight ago at 16 points. Labour is on 41%, the Conservatives 25%, Reform 11%, the Liberal Democrats 10%, and the Greens 8%. The poll comes as Labour today claims that a clear majority of 2019 Tories (61%, according to its own polling) now support its plan for a new state run company, Great British Energy, which it says would secure the country’s energy independence and bring down prices. Despite having recently abandoned their plans to spend £28bn a year on green investment, Starmer and shadow energy secretary Ed Miliband will this week promote the party’s scaled-back ideas on the latest of Starmer’s missions tours, focusing on its aim to turn the UK into a “clean energy superpower”. Miliband said it was encouraging that so many 2019 Tories were now supporting Labour’s energy and green policies. “The Conservative party’s opposition to a publicly owned energy company is shortsighted and self-destructive. Even their own voters know it is preposterous that the governments of other countries profit from our energy system while British families struggle with rising bills.”