When the outspoken Tory MP Lee Anderson quit as one of his party’s deputy chairmen last week over his support for an ever-tougher approach to migrant crossings, he said he was acting “for the residents of Ashfield”, the Nottinghamshire seat he seized from Labour at the last election. Anderson said he felt compelled to strengthen the Rwanda bill – designed to deport migrants arriving in small boats – after receiving thousands of emails from residents worried about the Channel crossings taking place some 200 miles away. His decision was a sign of how fraught the issue has become within his party, but also confirmation that the shadow of a coming election now hangs heavy. Inevitably, he and other Tory MPs in former Labour seats captured in 2019 now face a year of relentless electioneering – and many believe a tough stance on immigration will help them. On a frosty morning in Kirkby-in-Ashfield, a small former mining community in the constituency, there was some evidence for Anderson’s claims. “There’s too many people in the country, I think,” said Ivan Rose, who recently retired. “If you keep building houses, we’ll get more flooding like we’ve had.”
Sharon Shu, selling shoes in the market, said her mother had friends who were scared to boil the kettle for fear of their electricity bill. “I think we should look after them first,” she said. Another shopper even suggests “minefields along the Channel”. Yet the overriding sentiment among those who spoke to the Observer was a visceral hostility to all politicians – an anti-politics instinct that long predates Channel crossings and which some accuse Anderson of fuelling. “I’ve voted for both parties over the years, but it’s difficult to vote for anyone at the moment,” said Rose. “I don’t think they’re bothered about people up here.” Tony Shu, working in the market with his wife, agreed. “It’s just like a continual flow of bad news,” he said. “What could win an election for a party? I don’t know whether anybody’s offering anything different.” It doesn’t take long to discover why many here feel abandoned. While terms like “red wall seat” and “left-behind town” have become a political shorthand for these former industrial heartlands, it is easy to detect a deeply held pride in the area’s past that has been bruised over decades. That civic pride is personified in Kirkby by Christine Kidger, 75, whose free labour has kept the town’s heritage centre (a shop front just off the high street) going for years. She previously championed a commemorative mosaic near the site of Summit Colliery, Kirkby, which has since become a business park.
“I left school when I was 15,” she explained. “I could have given a job up on the Friday and I could’ve had a new job for the Monday. When you’ve got your pit, you’ve got your community, haven’t you? The pit closed in ’69. Then of course all the factories went. A lot of the shops are gone. All we’ve got really now is takeaways and barbers and nail places. It’s sad when you think about how it was and now.” It is a lament instantly recognised by Gloria De Piero, who represented the area for Labour until 2019. “If you’d gone back 30 or 40 years, all the men would have worked on the pits and the women would have worked in textiles. There were good, well-paid jobs. Now, people are working, but not paid very well. There’s a great community spirit. People care about law and order, border controls. But they’re typically more left wing economically. They know that they’re getting a raw deal.” That sense of stagnation has set the scene for an election campaign here fuelled by an anti-Westminster sentiment. It means that while a Labour victory looks likely in theory, there can be no guarantee it will overturn Anderson’s 5,733-vote majority. It may help explain that while there has been a rush of would-be Labour candidates in nearby Rushcliffe, there has not been such a stampede to be the party’s representative in Ashfield. In fact, Labour didn’t even secure second place at the last election. In a sign of the Westminster hostility, that went to an independent candidate, Jason Zadrozny, the leader of the district council. Zadrozny is running again – he has already attacked Anderson as being “as thick as mince” – despite currently facing trial on 12 counts of fraud by false representation and four counts of income tax evasion. He denies the charges.
Then there is Reform UK, the successor to the Brexit party, whose candidate Henry Grisewood – a “positive psychology” coach – believes he can be the most plain speaking in a race between plain speakers. “There’s lots of changes that need to happen in Great Britain,” he said. “Reform has got some really genuinely good ideas. They’re not just saying it, like most political parties.” While Anderson has chosen an outspoken style and immigration as the topic with which to tap into local angst, it is also clear he has become a divisive figure.
“I think he comes out with really ill-informed comments. Quite significant comments about immigration, but also homeless people,” said Laura Walker, 51, who was out walking her dog. She accused him of fuelling local despair. “People have been seduced into feeling aggrieved about things – and that leads to them thinking that people who don’t work or aren’t from the UK are somehow responsible for that.” Another constituent said all he wanted was “the end of Lee Anderson”. There are those openly opting for Labour, but it comes with heavy scepticism. “I’ll probably vote Labour and see what happens,” said Susan Crooks, with a sigh. Her husband Malcolm is more cynical. “All Labour does is diss the Conservatives but not actually say what they would do differently, which is totally annoying. So we’re none the wiser.” Back in Westminster, many colleagues of Anderson and other red wall MPs – such as Miriam Cates in Penistone and Stocksbridge or Andrea Jenkyns in Morley and Outwood – question whether their chosen tactic will ultimately help them. “That’s not how national elections work,” said one veteran. Another observed, more bluntly: “It won’t work.”