Brexit has squeezed the political middle ground in Northern Ireland and pushed more people into their unionist and nationalist trenches. A post-Brexit opinion poll has found that those in the region deeming themselves neither unionist or nationalist has fallen to 39%. The Northern Ireland Life and Times (NILT) survey revealed that this figure was the lowest in 15 years. As late as 2017, 50% surveyed said they were neither. The poll of 1,200 people taken from September 2019 to February this year also reveals that more Catholics now describe themselves as nationalist since Brexit. Just under 60% of Catholics in Northern Ireland now categorise themselves as nationalist compared with 50% two years ago.
At the same time, the researchers from Queen’s University Belfast’s Ark project found 67% of Protestants now classified themselves as unionist compared with 55% in 2018. The Brexit effect however has not created any real sense of existential threat to the union among unionists, according to the NILT. Among unionists, 62% think a united Ireland is unlikely within the next 20 years. Significantly, 37% of nationalists also think there will not be Irish unity within the next two decades. The report concludes: “we are seeing a retrenchment of identity positions” in relation to traditional political allegiances. Brexit has not dramatically affected unionists’ thinking, even among those who were pro-EU in the 2016 referendum. While there was a slight increase of 7% among unionists who said “don’t know”’ to the prospect of a united Ireland, Brexit made no difference to the overwhelming majority of those in favour of remaining British. Yet all three political categories – unionist, nationalist and neither – appear to continue to support the devolved institutions at Stormont. Just under 70% of the population still support the Good Friday agreement and power-sharing government. The poll showed that 35% were happy with the agreement and did not want it changed; 33% were positive about the peace accord but wanted minor changes. The authors of the report found this robust backing for devolution surprising given that for three years the local assembly was deadlocked with the main parties, Sinn Féin and the Democratic Unionists, unable to form a government. Despite widespread cross-community anger over the three years of deadlock at Stormont, only 10% of those surveyed said they would like to see the UK parliament in London make all the decisions for Northern Ireland. Among the overall population, only 30% said a united Ireland was likely within the next 20 years, while 46% said Irish unity was unlikely in the same time frame. Dr Paula Devine, the co-director of Ark from the school of social sciences, education and social work at Queen’s, said: “From this data, we can see that support for the Good Friday/Belfast agreement and the devolved institutions has been maintained among people of all backgrounds. “However, it is striking that 2019 also saw a strengthening of unionist and nationalist identities and growing pressure on the so-called middle ground.” The Ark NILT survey has been running since 1998 and provides an important source of data on how opinions in Northern Ireland have changed over the past 21 years.