In the final throes of Theresa May’s Brexit negotiations, the biggest noises were being made at home, by a squabbling cabinet and a riotous Conservative party. Yet as Boris Johnson’s negotiations reach their endgame, the chatter is strangely muted. First, in the cabinet. While Johnson’s cabinet does not comprise solely hard Brexiters, all were chosen for their roles in the understanding that they would be prepared to back a decision from the prime minister to go for no deal. Some ministers had historically been queasy about a full-scale no deal, including the justice secretary, Robert Buckland, the culture secretary, Oliver Dowden, and the Welsh secretary, Simon Hart. In total there are eight former remainers in the cabinet, though the top jobs are all held by prominent Brexiters. But over the weekend ministers made it clear privately to the Sunday papers that there was a united resolve to pursue such a path. There is no equivalent of the “Gaukward squad” that existed under May, involving David Gauke, Philip Hammond, Greg Clark and Amber Rudd. James Cleverly, a Foreign Office minister and close ally of Johnson, struck a defiant tone on Monday, saying: “Yes, time is tight, yes it might go right to the wire, and indeed it may well be that we don’t get the deal.” May’s threats of no deal never seemed particularly realistic because of the fierce resistance from the Treasury under the then chancellor, Hammond. Johnson does not face the same resistance from Rishi Sunak. The current chancellor’s most recent spending review did not even mention the impact of Brexit, despite a warning from the governor of the Bank of England that the economic cost of no deal would be bigger in the long term than the damage caused by Covid-19. The most senior minister who is known to have had qualms about the impact of no deal is Michael Gove, the chancellor of the duchy of Lancaster and the minister closest to David Frost’s negotiations. Gove’s growing scepticism about no deal was said to have been formed during his time as environment secretary, when he saw the scale of the burden it would put on the sector. But in October Gove said in an article for the Times that he was reconciled to no deal, though he insisted he was “not blithe or blase” about the challenges. That intervention was designed to send a signal to Brussels that everyone who mattered was now entirely onboard. The other challenge could be Brexiter MPs, many of whom have publicly praised Lord Frost’s negotiations. If there are last-minute concessions or compromises by the UK, murmurings of discontent could become a roar very rapidly, as happened after May’s Chequer’s agreement was announced. The red line for the group is total sovereignty – and there are enough in the European Research Group of hard Brexiters to defeat Johnson’s handsome majority. The group receive advice from a group of Brexit-backing lawyers on whether a potential deal would tie the UK to the EU’s rules in any form whatsoever. If it would, they will move against it – and Johnson. Ripe for triggering a rebellion will be any agreement on a so-called “ratchet clause” – which applies when either side develops its environmental, social and labour standards over time, the other side faces consequences such as tariffs on exports should it choose not to follow with equivalent regulations.
Many of those MPs, including the former minister Steve Baker, have also found themselves at odds with Johnson over coronavirus restrictions, so goodwill is in short supply. And many have spoken repeatedly in glowing terms about Sunak, seen as Johnson’s most likely successor. Quieter still are the soft Brexit Tories, vastly depleted in number after more than 20 were dismissed from the party by Johnson last year and more decided not to stand in 2019. Those who remain, including Clark and the former ministers Stephen Hammond, Steve Brine and Huw Merriman, are pretty much resigned to the hardest of Brexits after the 2019 election result. In the end it could be Labour that saves Johnson’s blushes on a deal, with Keir Starmer minded to whip his MPs to vote for any deal to avoid a no-deal scenario. Should this be so, Johnson may have more room for any last-minute concessions, knowing he will pass whatever deal he secures.