The beautiful Surrey Hills are well known for two things: a high concentration of some of the UK’s richest residents, who commute from the “stockbroker belt” to well-paying jobs in London, and some of the country’s most popular cycling routes. The two combined on a recent chilly Saturday morning in a 100km bike ride that passed through the picturesque lanes of the newly created Godalming and Ash constituency. Most of the 10 riders from Velo Club Godalming Haslemere were happy to chat politics as they pedalled up (and down) 1,168 metres of the county’s steepest hills on customised carbon-fibre racing bikes, some of which cost more than a family car.
Steve Street, 55, a retired engineering consultant who has lived in Godalming for more than 30 years, was excited about the election, as the constituency could be one of the tightest races in the country. “I hope he loses,” Street said of Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, who has held the former seat of South West Surrey since 2005. “I’ve not been that impressed with him, he appears to be a bit of a ‘yes man’ toeing the party line but not doing what makes sense for the country.”
If Hunt does lose, he will join a list of just 35 cabinet members who have been defeated while holding office since 1900. In Street’s view, the Conservatives are “no longer the party of business”. They lost him with Brexit, which still makes him angry. “I disagreed with it from the start but as it was the will of the people I agreed we’d better go ahead and do it. But I think it’s been badly implemented and caused so many issues for industry and businesses, and messed up the economy.”
Street voted Liberal Democrat in 2019, partly to punish the Conservatives for Brexit. Many others also turned to the Lib Dems, whose share of the vote in the constituency increased from 9.9% in 2017 to 38.7%. Hunt retained the seat with 53.3% and a majority of 8,817.
This time pollsters predict it will be one of the closest races in the country, with the Lib Dems’ Paul Follows – the leader of the local Waverley borough council – expected to win with 38%, ahead of Hunt on 33.4%. Under current projections, Labour could come in third with 13.1%, just ahead of Reform on 12.9%. Despite the tightness of the race, Street said he was considering voting Labour this time around. “I’m looking for the party that is going to be pro-business. Labour is pitching itself as very pro-business and I think that could be enough for me to vote for them, maybe.” While Street has earned enough to retire in his early 50s, he said he would like whichever party that wins the election to do more to tackle “the widening gap between rich and poor”. “It’s always talked about as a north-south divide,” he said. “But there are places down south that are very poor. Even here, which is a very rich area, there are pockets of real deprivation.” He said Hunt had “shown himself as out of touch with real people” with his comments earlier this year that £100,000 a year was “not a huge salary”. “It’s such a stupid statement, and it’s the sort of thing that sticks in people’s memories,” Street said.
A lot of the voters the Guardian spoke to over several days in the constituency described Hunt as a good local MP, often seen at town and village events and supportive of local charities. The Guardian bumped into Hunt at the annual Godalming town parade and show, at which he repeatedly described himself as “the underdog” in the election.
While many voters came up to chat warmly with Hunt and his labrador, Poppy, some challenged him on local, national and international issues, including on the party’s stance on the war in Gaza. Anushka Athique, 42, a lecturer who lives in the neighbouring town of Farncombe, said she “couldn’t pass up the opportunity to speak my mind to him – if I hadn’t I would have gone away feeling a coward”. “I have been writing to him fortnightly about the war in Gaza and the need for an immediate ceasefire,” she said. “He has never replied.”
Athique said she hadn’t decided who to vote for “but I’ll do whatever I have to do to get him out”. Asked why, she said: “Just look at every job he has done, every job he has fucked it up: culture secretary, fucked it up; health secretary, really fucked it up; chancellor, the country is bust.” Gaza was also on the mind of Penny Rivers, 67, a local Lib Dem councillor who has lived in Godalming since 1974. “I’m voting Lib Dem as they are the only major party that has called for an immediate ceasefire,” she said. “We are hoping to have a Labour government and a Lib Dem MP. We hoped for it last time, but this time we are much more hopeful. People are tired and fed up, we need change.” Rivers said people may think of Surrey as “leafy and well-to-do, but people are suffering here just like everywhere else”. She said the cost of living crisis may have hit poorer families in Surrey more than elsewhere as “we have such high housing costs compared to incomes”. “There are now two food banks in Godalming,” she added. “It’s down to austerity and the Tory government.” She said she would like the government to do more for younger people. “We’re old and have had all sorts of advantages that today’s young people can’t imagine. We have four children, all of whom can’t afford to own their own homes despite having good, well-paid jobs.” Her eldest child is 40 and still renting. “We bought our house when I was 24,” she said. Rivers said she knew Hunt well, and she was soon seen giving him a bear hug. “He is a good local MP and has stepped up in various ways,” she said. “But he is part of the national government that has failed the people.”
She had one more thing to say before letting go of the Guardian reporter’s arm. “You know the worst thing about this government? It’s the war on woke. Woke means caring for people and it can only be a good thing to care for people no matter what.” Robert Oulton, a Labour party member, was not at the Labour stall at the town fair. Instead he was manning a rival stall calling on people to “vote smart. Vote together. Vote for change … Vote for Paul Follows, the only candidate that can beat the Conservatives here.” Oulton, 70, a retired GP who lives in Farncombe, said he had made the decision in effect to campaign for the Lib Dems because “the country so desperately needs change, we can’t go on like this. We need to get the Tories out, so it has to be tactical voting.” He said he had met a lot of other people who were “on the journey” to tactical voting. “Whether they be Labour or Greens, they are very aware of the situation.”
However, Oulton and his fellow activists hadn’t convinced everyone of the merits of tactical voting. Peter Lockhart, 58, who lives in the village of Shalford, near Guildford, is a lifelong Labour member and will be voting for the party’s candidate, James Walsh, on 4 July. “Labour is my community,” Lockhart said. “It chimes with my worldview, despite some frustrations.” Lockhart said he had sympathy with the tactical voting argument but “we want people to vote with their heart”. In the village of Bramley, which was in the midst of a tap water crisis after petrol was found to have leaked into the water supply, Sylvie Thomas, 82, was unafraid to speak frankly. “We’re in so much of a mess, it’s all promises and lies,” Thomas said as she proudly showed off her immaculate home and garden decorated in West Ham United’s claret and blue in memory of her father who played for the team. “They [the Conservatives] have been in too long, it is time for a change.”
Max Aiken, 76, an artist and retired architect, didn’t want to vote for any of the candidates on the ballot paper. “I was hoping for something more radical, I’m looking around for someone like [French president Emmanuel Macron], but I’m looking in vain.” Aiken voted Conservative at the last election, but in Bath, and had only recently moved to the village of Cranleigh. “The Tories are promising to fix everything next time, but they have had 14 years and haven’t fixed much,” he said. “I’m not a Lib Dem, and I don’t think [Keir] Starmer is the answer. I don’t think the country knows what the answer is,” he said. “What we really need is someone with a handbag with a brick in it.” • This article was amended on 25 June 2024 to correct the ‘Leave vote (modelled)’ figure in the side panel from 66% to 46%, and to note that Penny Rivers is a local Lib Dem councillor.