Conservative factions are nothing new, as Theresa May learned to her cost with Brexit and Boris Johnson saw in a mass rebellion on Covid rules. But Johnson is facing significant pressure from well over 100 of his MPs to change course on a number of fronts including green policies. Conservative backbenchers say an ever-growing number of factions – most with their own acronym, and with significant crossover when it comes to their members – hold sway within the party, a process helped by WhatsApp-based organising and a perception the prime minister’s authority has eroded. “I’m on so many WhatsApp groups it’s like Ben-Hur – there’s a cast of thousands,” one MP said. “I can’t keep track of them all. It doesn’t mean I believe in everything, but I like to keep track of people’s views.”
MPs feel empowered by the groups. “It’s often said that with first past the post, coalitions exist within parties rather than between parties,” another MP said. “Under Thatcher we used to have the wets and the drys. It can be a good counterbalance to the executive.” John Major struggled endlessly with Eurosceptics he termed “bastards”, while May’s nemesis was the European Research Group, or ERG, the longstanding alliance of Brexit ultras. What is different now is that – unlike Major and May – Johnson has a significant Commons majority. Nonetheless, before Christmas he still had to rely on Labour votes to pass new coronavirus restrictions amid a 101-MP rebellion instigated by the Covid Recovery Group (CRG), which is sceptical about new pandemic rules.
Unlike the ERG, which has membership levies and a formal structure, CRG backers say it is little more than a WhatsApp forum with occasional in-person meetings. There is significant crossover, not least with Steve Baker, a former ERG chair who is vice-chair of the CRG. The ERG receded into the background after Johnson delivered the Brexit its members wanted, and the CRG could likewise call off hostilities if the Omicron wave subsides and rules are eased. Even then Johnson will not be in the clear. His parliamentary party’s internal groupings, while varied in core aims, often share certain views and some of the same members. These tend disproportionately to be former Brexiters, and common aims centre around a desire to push Johnson away from what they see as overly statist, high-tax policies – ones they believe the UK should abandon outside the EU. “It feels particularly important now, as we’ve had two years of a Conservative government and for some of us it hasn’t especially felt like a Conservative government,” one backbencher said. “We’re all facing re-election in a year or two, and we just want to gently nudge the government back to a virtuous path.” Some blocs, such as the Northern Research Group (NRG), are more geographic than ideological. But others, such as Blue Collar Conservatism and the culture war-focused Common Sense Group, have beliefs that include opposition to current elements of tax-and-spend.
The Net Zero Scrutiny Group (NZSG), which claims many more supporters than the 18 Tory MPs who signed a letter this week seeking an end to VAT and green levies on fuel bills, looks set to become increasingly influential in coming months as Johnson faces pressure over the cost of living. Some critics have argued the NZSG flirts with denial, citing its pledge to consider research from Nigel Lawson’s controversial Global Warming Policy Foundation thinktank. Craig Mackinlay, the South Thanet MP who chairs the group, rejects the characterisation. He says: “This isn’t an argument about climate change or any of that. This is about: is this affordable and technologically achievable, what will it do particularly for the lower paid, and is there a better way?” There are repeated echoes of Brexit, and not just because many of the MPs involved cut their factional teeth inside the ERG.
One backbencher, a member of several groups, says: “We know one reason people voted for Brexit was they felt elites were telling them how to live their lives. And I think there’s some similarities when they’re told: don’t have an old-fashioned boiler, don’t drive a 15-year-old car or van even though you can’t afford another one. It’s the same with Covid – officials in London telling them what to do.” Some MPs crop up time and again. The Lincoln MP, Karl McCartney, for example, is in the CRG, NZRG and Common Sense Group, as well being on the executive of the 1922 Committee of backbench Tories. The Wealden MP, Nusrat Ghani, is vice-chair of the 1922 Committee and involved with the CRG, while the former minister Esther McVey is linked to the CRG and NZSG and founded Blue Collar Conservatism. Much as Johnson succeeded May by positioning himself to Tory MPs and the party membership as the man to deliver a muscular, immediate Brexit, those now hoping to follow him, such as Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak, will look to the groups for ideological pointers. In the meantime, Johnson must try to keep them on side, mindful they have the ability to cause significant trouble. “You don’t throw yourself on the barbed wire every time there’s a vote,” noted one Tory MP, a member of several groups. “But you have a greater opportunity to get in front of ministers and argue the case – because they know you’ve got some cards in your pocket.”