As political graffiti goes, the message to the Conservative MP Alex Chalk scrawled on some steps in the centre of his Cheltenham constituency was polite, if very pointed. “F**k off back to France?” it began, using slightly coy asterisks. “Really, Alex?” For baffled locals in the genteel Regency town who have not been following politics during the summer recess, it was a reference to Chalk’s defence of inflammatory comments about asylum seekers made last week by Lee Anderson, a fellow Tory MP and one of the party’s vice-chairs. Using language that, consciously or not, echoed the rhetoric of 1970s far-right groups, Anderson had said refugees seeking asylum should “fuck off back to France” if they did not like being housed on the Bibby Stockholm barge. Chalk, who is Rishi Sunak’s justice secretary and firmly on the more liberal end of the party, was the minister on the next day’s morning broadcast round and vigorously endorsed Anderson’s message, despite what he termed the “salty” language.
Government ministers often find themselves defending ideas or colleagues they may have little in common with. But as an election looms, some Conservatives are wondering whether the increasingly hard-right, culture war-infused stance taken by Sunak could cost them their seats. This gradual shift in tone is exemplified by the appointment of Anderson, the former miner who took the Ashfield seat in Nottinghamshire from Labour in 2019 and who is very clearly seen as an electoral asset in similar so-called red wall seats. The calculation for the Conservatives – and one being made on a near-daily basis by a number of Tory MPs – is whether this relentless focus on subjects such as small boats could push away traditional supporters with less appetite for populism. The Liberal Democrats have overturned heavy Conservative majorities in a string of byelections since 2021, in part thanks to former Tory voters repelled by the antics of Boris Johnson who either stayed at home or switched sides, and have high hopes in the general election of seizing dozens of other seats, notably in more affluent “blue wall” areas. Cheltenham, where Chalk had a sub-1,000 majority over the Lib Dems in 2019, is a case in point. While he is expected to lose his seat, it remains to be seen whether Sunak’s recent embrace of culture war issues, including scepticism about environmental policies, will be a significant factor. Robert Hayward, an elections expert and Conservative peer, said such targeted messaging was far from uncommon, but came with risks. “Any political party is a combination of different people and views, particularly the two big parties,” he said. “There are issues which matter more to one side than another, and until you get to a certain point, you don’t actually turn people off. But it’s always a question of degree.” Tim Bale, a professor of politics at Queen Mary University of London, said Sunak was engaged in “a numbers game”, aware that Tory majorities in the blue wall tended to be bigger than in red wall seats taken from Labour in 2017 and 2019. He said: “Putting it bluntly, Sunak can afford to lose a fair few southern votes without necessarily losing southern seats, but in the north and the Midlands, losing votes is more likely to mean losing seats too.” This tactic is nonetheless causing discomfort among some Conservative activists. “There does seem to be a conscious decision that we’re not bothering so much about attracting the waverers,” said a senior Tory member in another seat where the sitting MP is threatened by the Lib Dems. “It’s all about getting out the core vote, which makes sense to an extent. But in areas like mine we do sometimes worry that we don’t really have a core vote any more.” Another important factor to consider is that while culture war rows make headlines, they are rarely at the top of voters’ considerations. Some Lib Dem MPs say blue wall voters targeted by the party remain notably more focused on the state of the NHS and the cost of mortgages. This is a point also stressed by Lord Hayward: “At the moment, the Tories’ broader problem is they’ve got to prove their competence to govern. Any poll will tell you that economics and competence go hand in hand, and that they are the paramount issues. It’s the economy, stupid.” For Tory ministers preparing to again unleash Anderson on the airwaves, there is another factor to consider, one that was arguably central to Lib Dem successes in the Johnson era: it risks inspiring disapproval and discomfort in some liberal-minded Conservatives. The former Conservative attorney general Dominic Grieve, who was stripped of the whip in his Buckinghamshire seat by Johnson for opposing a hard Brexit, said of Anderson’s comments: “They are gross, put simply. Foul language should not be part of political discourse … He was being asked legitimate questions to which he may have absolutely fair answers, but he didn’t. He used abusive language to say ‘get lost’.” Max Wilkinson, who came within 981 votes of unseating Chalk in 2019 for the Lib Dems and hopes to finish the job next year, says the MP’s decision to defend Anderson prompted some locals to tell him they would no longer vote Conservative. “Particularly it was the defence of foul language, which people would not associate usually with any MP, and particularly with Alex Chalk,” Wilkinson said. “They couldn’t quite believe he was defending that.”