Winning back voters lost in the disastrous general election of this summer will be top of the to-do list for the newly installed Conservative party leader when he or she is appointed in a little over three weeks’ time. With Keir Starmer’s government off to a shaky start, buffeted by the freebies scandal and the loss of his chief of staff, could either of the Conservative leadership candidates capitalise on early disappointment with Labour? If so, they may need to begin by introducing themselves. For the first time in the more than a dozen focus groups we’ve conducted on the candidates, a couple of participants knew enough about them to express views without prompting – a sign perhaps that the contest is starting to cut through. But most still knew little about either of the finalists and the coming weeks will be key to each defining themselves in the public’s mind.
Shown clips of the two contenders, it was Kemi Badenoch who wowed the group, made up of former Conservative voters from Weston-super-Mare, which elected a Labour MP for the first time in its history, and North East Somerset and Hanham, a new seat replacing one formerly held by Jacob Rees-Mogg. Robert, a retired fire officer, called her a “breath of fresh air”, while Martin, a banking manager, praised her “no-nonsense approach”. Melanie thought her “strong”, Katie found her “a bit more normal” and Clare added that “she seems a bit more genuine”. This first impression of Badenoch isn’t unusual. In fact, a consistent theme from our focus groups is that after hearing the candidates speak, Badenoch is the one people want to hear more from. Perhaps more surprising, even when presented with her more controversial statements, the group were untroubled. On her reflection that some civil servants needed to be in prison, the group actually seemed to agree – in fact, Alison said “she’s bang on”. On maternity leave, Clare pointed out: “She actually has children herself, so she’s obviously had maternity leave.” When told that Badenoch had hacked Harriet Harman’s website, Pete felt it was Harman’s fault for not having a stronger password. Opinions of Robert Jenrick were more muted. Retiree Robert was “not keen”, with the group largely dismissing him as “more of the same”, a sentiment echoed by Melanie: “They keep saying the same things over and over again.” Katie admitted: “I just didn’t listen to him.” However, Martin felt that from what he knew of him, Jenrick was “not a muppet” and some of the group liked his pledge to leave the European convention on human rights. Again, these views of Jenrick echoed what we had heard since the start of the contest: some interest in his ideas, but a likability problem with voters, based on early impressions. And whereas Badenoch’s controversial statements didn’t trouble the group, some of Jenrick’s did. The group – all former Conservative voters who switched to Labour or Reform – felt that Jenrick’s decision to order a Mickey Mouse mural to be painted over in a detention centre was “stupid and ridiculous”. After hearing his comment about SAS soldiers shooting rather than capturing terrorists, Pete said it was the sort of thing “you’d say to the cabinet room, you don’t make it public”.
Were there any “princes across the water” who this group felt could do a better job than the candidates on offer? Despite a flurry of promotion around his book launch, there was no appetite among this group for bringing back Boris Johnson, whom Alison dismissed as a “buffoon”. The prospect of the Conservatives embracing the Reform leader, Nigel Farage, split the participants. Katie was worried about “what he said on equality and race”, but Peter said although he didn’t “agree with some of the things he says, politics needs more people like him” and Martin went so far as to say he “wouldn’t discount him being the next prime minister”. But for this group, it was Badenoch who showed the most potential for reviving the Tories’ fortunes. While impressions can and will change as voters get to know the next leader and they set out their policy positions, Badenoch does seem to have a quality few politicians can muster: an energy and ability to cut through and make people want to listen. The question, then, is whether that energy is containable or liable to erupt. If it’s the former, a Badenoch leadership could pose a real threat to Labour – not least as every member of the group said they could see her as prime minister. As the window cleaner Charlie put it: “If Keir Starmer doesn’t improve, then I think Kemi definitely has a chance.” Luke Tryl is the UK director of the research group More in Common.