Reform UK’s best hope of making headlines this week is Blackpool South’s byelection, but polling also shows the insurgent rightwing party is ahead of the Conservatives in two mayoral races. While Labour are the frontrunners to regain Blackpool South – which fell to the Conservatives as the “red wall” crumbled in 2019 – the battle for second place there could be crucial to Rishi Sunak’s future. However, damage to the Tories could also be inflicted in mayoral contests in Brexit heartlands such as the north east, where polling by More in Common has Reform ahead of the Tories but behind Labour and the mayor of North Tyne, former Labour member Jamie Driscoll. The pollsters also have Reform UK slightly ahead of the Tories in the Greater Manchester mayoral race. Dan Barker, who was selected only months ago as the Tory candidate, defected last month to Reform. More in Common polling from recent days put him at 12% – distantly behind Labour’s Andy Burnham on 63%, but still ahead of the Conservatives. “There are two contests where Reform do seem to be doing quite well although it’s less a story of Reform doing very well and more the Conservatives doing badly,” said Jim Blagden, an associate director at More in Common. The party is also involved in council battles in which it is attempting to prepare the ground for the general election with a slate of between 300 and 400 local election candidates.
“The locals will be another good test as to how credible they are compared to their predecessors, Ukip and the Brexit party,” said Blagden. “At the same time, our focus groups have had limited mentions of Reform. It could because they are a fairly new party and their ground operation is not what it could be. From polling it looks like Reform could beat the Conservatives in some mayoral races, although the former had quite a low salience in focus groups for Manchester.” The relatively small size of Reform’s local elections slate pales in comparison to the bigger campaigns once mounted by Ukip – which was able to establish a local government footprint and controlled Thanet at one point – reflecting its current weakness. Many in the party still hope a return by its honorary president, Nigel Farage, to frontline politics would boost both the party’s war chest and the number of volunteers. For now, places to watch in terms of Reform’s local elections campaign include Hartlepool, where the party leader, Richard Tice, is to run again after coming third there in 2019, just over 1,000 votes behind the Tories. Reform is also running a full slate of candidates for elections to the city council in Sunderland – totemic for its Leave vote in the 2016 referendum – and Bolton. In the latter it is in alliance with Bolton for Change, a registered political party set up by two former candidates of the Brexit party. One of them, Trevor Jones, told the Guardian: “For the now the issue is getting quality candidates nationally and there is also only a certain amount of cash. We were ahead of the country in some ways – it’s a slow process – so that’s why we have a full slate.” In the general election Bolton for Change would probably back a Reform UK candidate. Lincoln and Plymouth – both locations that had been targeted by Ukip during its political peak – are also places where Reform is running close to a full slate of local election candidates.