No one could accuse the Liberal Democrats of failing to capitalise on the scandals that have rocked their main opposition in the North Shropshire byelection. Within an hour and a half of a damning new photo of a Conservative Christmas party emerging on Tuesday night, the party was promoting it to voters in the constituency on Facebook under the tagline: “Tell them the party’s over.” Among the hundreds of thousands of campaign leaflets distributed by the Lib Dems over the past few weeks were ones juxtaposing a picture of a crying elderly woman against a photo of Boris Johnson in front of a party background, contrasting the Christmases they experienced.
“We hope by being very fast out the blocks at every point, it will be enough to take down the [Conservative] majority,” said a source in the Lib Dem campaign. “As soon as the Christmas party story broke we went up a gear and thought, let’s send this message home. We’ve told people to push this message on the doorstep. “People here were already very angry at the government for local issues, the ambulance waiting times here are a disaster. The Christmas party scandal tipped a lot of people over the edge.” The Lib Dem candidate, Helen Morgan, has been tipped by some to become the surprise winner on Thursday, based on the assumption of reduced support for the Conservatives following weeks of turmoil, and potential tactical voting by Labour and Green supporters. However, campaigners have stressed that North Shropshire, which the Conservative MP Owen Paterson won with a 23,000 majority last time, is “the truest of blue Tory seats” and the result is too close to call. Many veteran vote watchers think the Conservatives will hold it. The Tories and Lib Dems have been campaigning hard. “I’ve got enough leaflets to make a small bonfire,” laughed Maureen Bailey, 81, a voter in the town of Market Drayton on Wednesday.
She said she always voted Conservative in the past but would back the Lib Dems this time round, mainly because she thinks they have been strongest on local issues such as public transport and access to healthcare. “They have really pushed it,” she said. “And their candidate lives here, not in Birmingham or somewhere,” she added in reference to the Conservative party candidate, Neil Shastri-Hurst. Another voter, 66-year-old Pam, said she had received “tonnes” of leaflets from the Lib Dems, including one in a hand addressed envelope. “When you open it, it looks like a handwritten letter. But to be fair it caught my eye,” she said. “In the past I’ve voted anybody but Conservative, but this time I think the Lib Dem candidate is best.” But for others, the offensive has merely pushed them more towards the Conservatives. “I’m sick of this campaign against the Tories, bringing up parties from a year ago, it’s completely irrelevant,” said local teacher James Steel, 50, who said he had had six or seven Lib Dem leaflets.
He said he would be voting Conservative on Thursday, but had resigned himself to a potential Lib Dem win. “I think the Tories will probably lose this byelection but I’m going to vote for them anyway. I think the Lib Dems will win it.” There is no denying the party has poured a huge amount of resources into the byelection, while Labour has taken a back seat. On Sunday, the Labour MP Yasmin Qureshi appeared to acknowledge the party had allowed the Lib Dems to dominate, saying: “Labour are never going to win North Shropshire. The Lib Dems do have an opportunity to do so.”
But for many in the seat, the sheer number of leaflets pouring through the letterbox every day has merely prompted confusion. “We’ve been getting so much through the post, I think for many people it will be a last-minute decision when they go to the polling station tomorrow,” said Elaine Breadmore, 58, outside the shop she works in. “I’m normally a Labour voter, I have been since I was nipper as I come from up north, but last time I voted Conservative and perhaps I might vote Conservative this time too,” she said. “I’ll decide when I get over there.”