The new parliament after the election may no longer be home to many of the Conservative “big beasts” who have sat on the green benches for decades, Guardian analysis shows. Not only are many big Tory names standing down, but the latest polling-based projections suggest those who are standing may find it difficult to hold their seats. The interactive below shows the prominent Tories at risk of losing their seats, and the ones who have already bowed out.
The current polls point to such significant Conservative losses that the faces in the new parliament may look very different. This is not the case for Labour, if the polls are correct and stay stable until election day. Of the 29 members of the Labour shadow cabinet, nine are defending majorities of less than 10%, including Yvette Cooper, John Healey and Ed Miliband. According to the latest MRP polling from YouGov, however, all but one of the shadow cabinet’s seats are leaning safely towards Labour. The exception is Bristol Central, where the shadow secretary for culture, media and sport, Thangam Debbonaire, is standing but which may go to the Greens despite her holding a majority of 32.5%. Data notes The data shown here is based on 2019 results modelled to the new 2024 constituency boundaries because of the boundary review that has changed the constituencies in which the general election is being fought. It is sourced from research by Colin Rallings, Michael Thrasher, David Denver and Nicholas Whyte, who have modelled and amalgamated the 2019 general election results to the new boundaries. You can use this interactive to find out your new constituency and how boundary changes could affect you. The 2024 projections are based on the latest MRP (multi-level regression and post-stratification) model from YouGov. It is based on polling conducted from 11-18 June 2024, interviewing 36,161 adults in England and Wales and 3,818 in Scotland. This polling data and demographic information was then used to estimate constituency-level projections. • This article was amended on 25 June 2024. An earlier version said that John Redwood was forecast to lose in Wokingham. In fact he is not standing for re-election.