While Keir Starmer may not end up with the super-majority that some of the polls have been predicting should Labour win the election, the turnover of MPs will mean he potentially has hundreds of new faces on his backbenches. Some in Labour headquarters hope they will be what is sometimes known as “lobby fodder” – helping the party push through new legislation in vote after vote – serving with blind loyalty as they feel they owe Starmer their seats. Starmer told the Guardian on Monday that he was looking forward to moving on from “nine years of going round and round the lobby tweeting merrily about the importance of the vote but losing every single time”. But even the most steadfast of new MPs will have their own agenda and, in the months ahead, he can expect to face challenges on issues including the climate crisis, child poverty, workers’ rights and strained relations with ethnic minority voters.
There will be plenty of MPs who feel they got to the green benches as a result of their own efforts, after weeks of voters sharing their disillusionment on the doorstep. “They won’t need to be loyal and grateful to be MPs,” one Labour insider said. “They will feel as though they’ve won because of their own campaigning.” Almost immediately, Labour MPs are ready to challenge Starmer on issues including increasing public sector pay, workers and women’s rights, the public ownership of water and how he will resolve the university tuition fee crisis. Even though the Labour leader claims he has ignored the “noise” from many inside the party telling him to “move over there, do this, or do that” over the years, he did slowly change his position on an immediate ceasefire after a dozen shadow frontbenchers quit over the issue.
The makeup of the parliamentary party will change after polling day, but the Labour left prior to the election includes 35 MPs who are expected to return to Westminster, alongside soft left politicians such as Alex Sobel, Rupa Huq, Barry Gardiner, Afzal Khan, Charlotte Nichols and Chris Webb. Despite a number of Labour politicians including Dan Carden, Paula Barker, Rachel Hopkins and Navendu Mishra quitting the left-wing Socialist Campaign Group (SCG), insiders have played down suggestions their voice within the PLP will be “silenced” by Starmer’s government. One noted Labour politicians of all stripes go on “different political journeys” and, throughout the group’s 42-year history, it has always played an important role in challenging the party’s overall position, whether in government or opposition. “The SCG existed under Blair and played a huge role in holding him to account over the Iraq war and Labour’s position on civil liberties. Of course, over the years, it has been more or less cohesive and it will always continue to be so,” they added.
A number of new MPs have been publicly supported by Momentum, but appear to have distanced themselves from the group, which some have interpreted as another sign of the left’s waning power base within the party. Others are understood to have ambitions for ministerial posts, so are likely to stay in line. What will Starmer be challenged on? Israel/Gaza Many Labour candidates are dismayed by the party’s initial stance on the Israel-Hamas war, which they believe has put them on the back foot in responding to the crisis in Gaza. The Labour leader can expect to be swiftly urged to publish legal advice on whether Israel is complying with international law and, as a result, clarify whether his government will or will not suspend arms sales to Israel. Climate Labour’s halving of its commitment to spend £28bn a year on its green prosperity plan left a number of MPs concerned that it had downgraded tackling the climate crisis. Starmer has insisted he wants to hit zero emissions targets by 2030, but his party may need some convincing.
Child poverty Starmer’s refusal to commit to scrapping the two-child benefit cap has caused despair beyond the left of the party, right up to the deputy party leader Angela Rayner, who has described the policy as “obscene and inhumane”. Starmer insists that tackling child poverty remains a priority. Gender Starmer has so far managed to keep most Labour disagreements about gender issues private, with the notable exception of Rosie Duffield, who has risen to prominence because of her views. Many new MPs will be supportive of the plans to simplify the gender recognition process. But he will need to strike a careful balance with concerns over women’s rights. Migration Starmer has a more realisable solution for small boat crossings – setting up a new border command and speeding up asylum processing. He has promised to cut net migration, a move many of his MPs support, but has not set an overall target. Yet there will be some concern over just how hardline Yvette Cooper, who has said she would support some further visa restrictions and wants to reduce reliance on overseas workers, might be.
Race relations Starmer’s tough rhetoric around the small boats crisis, and a perception prompted by the Diane Abbott row and the defection of rightwing Tory Natalie Elphicke that he has taken black and Asian voters for granted, will be called into question if he wins the keys to No 10. Minority ethnic MPs will want him to do more to call out racism from the hard right. Brexit Starmer will face pressure over Brexit from a much-enlarged grouping of pro-EU Labour MPs as invoices from new border checks start arriving with businesses within weeks. Opponents of Brexit are already sensing opportunities amid expectations that the number of MPs affiliated to the Labour Movement for Europe (LME) campaign group will double to well over 100.