Good afternoon. Since this is a newsletter and not the six o’clock news bulletin, I can put it like this: not very much happened today. In fact, not very much has happened in the campaign for ages. Last Wednesday’s debate was the last major set piece of this election, and it appears to have had a negligible impact on the polls; other than a steady stream of Reform candidates being revealed to hold appalling views (or leaving the party), nothing much since has moved the dial either. It’s all over, bar the waiting. But politics abhors a vacuum, and all of the parties are doing their best to fill it with the pitches that they believe will drag their voters to the polls. More on the thinking behind their closing messages, plus Rishi Sunak blowing everyone’s minds by successfully navigating a retail interaction, after the headlines. What happened today Voting | The Electoral Commission has acknowledged “local issues around the country” with postal votes but insisted there are no “major, systemic problems” with delivery. The Royal Mail also denied any backlog amid concerns that some would not be delivered before polling day. Labour | Keir Starmer has refused to confirm that David Lammy would be foreign secretary in a Labour government, despite previously saying that Angela Rayner would be deputy prime minister and Rachel Reeves would be chancellor. There have previously been rumours that Starmer could appoint Douglas Alexander, a veteran of Gordon Brown’s government now attempting to return as an MP, instead. Workers Party of Britain | Candidate for Sutton Coldfield Wajad Burkey has suspended his campaign after a gang of men with baseball bats and machetes attacked his son and two others while they handed out leaflets, leaving his son hospitalised with a head injury. Police are investigating the incident. Analysis: Every leader’s lasting message
Since endless repetition is the only real way to reach the majority of voters, who do not tune into politics obsessively, most political advisers and analysts will tell you that there is no point in making radical new policy promises or crafting novel attack lines at this stage: everything you do needs to feel in harmony with the message you’ve already been delivering, at least in theory, for the last five weeks. Unaccountably, not all of the parties have followed this advice to the letter. Here’s a summary of how they seem to be attacking the final phase. Conservatives This section will be considerably longer than the others, because while the Tories don’t know exactly what they want to tell you, they know they want to tell you a lot. For example: I give the Tories’ “Lazy Keir Starmer” attack line of the last 24 hours a maximum Baffling Wheeze rating of five Ed Stones out of five. The chronology here, just to remind you: Starmer told Virgin Radio that he has “protected time for the kids” after 6pm on Fridays. Rishi Sunak, who has previously said that one thing he admires about Starmer is his ability to balance work and family life, said in response that “I haven’t finished at 6pm ever”; an unnamed Tory source suggested that Starmer was planning to “put his slippers on and make a mug of Horlicks”. An attack ad on social media then made the entirely false suggestion that this was Starmer’s daily plan, while Tory minister Maria Caulfield elaborated this to the comical idea that he was proposing to work a four-day week. Sunak refused to disown the whole thing, but declined to comment on antisemitism adviser John Mann saying it is “dangerous” to undermine Starmer’s observation of Shabbat dinner, a point also made by Stephen Pollard in the Jewish Chronicle. (Starmer’s wife Victoria is of Jewish heritage.) That escalated badly! Starmer has laughed the whole thing off as absurd, and it’s pretty hard to see how it will bring wavering Tories into line come polling day – nobody has an image in their mind of Starmer as lazy, not even his harshest critics. The fundamental difficulty is this: the key message the Conservatives are trying to pump out is that if Labour gets a big majority, it will be very dangerous for Britain, because Keir Starmer will have maximum attitude to execute his evil plan. But how many socialist supervillains knock off at 6? The Tories are also sending letters to Reform voters purporting to be from their future selves, which you do hope has caused at least a few to drop their cornflakes in astonishment: I’m writing to you from July 2044, twenty years on from the day you voted Reform. I wanted to let you know how it all turned out for you. And for me. Long story short: not well. There’s also a video ad set in 2025, with school online because it’s “too busy” and power cuts across Britain, among other socialist nightmares. Sunak likes to say this election is about the future, but “come with me if you want to live” is an unorthodox way to frame it. Somewhat cheerier is the line they’re trying to develop about Sunak as the comeback kid, because he is like Jude Bellingham and likes McDonald’s breakfast wraps. Just to summarise the messages Rishi Sunak is trying to leave you with: Starmer is lazy; Starmer is extremely dangerous and effective; the future is terrifying, don’t vote Reform; I am making a comeback. At the start of the campaign, it was “Clear plan, bold action, secure future.” I’m no Lynton Crosby, but I see some barnacles on this boat. Labour It’s a lot easier to look good in campaign terms when you’re 20 points ahead – but you have to say that Labour’s messaging is markedly more coherent, because they aren’t trying to talk to the range of audiences that the Tories need to hang on to if they are to avoid a wipeout. They have their own daft stunts and attacks, to be sure – the creepy Sunak pillow being top of the list – but they do largely key into their closing argument: you have to vote if you don’t want another five years of this. There’s a sense, too, of an attempt to build some nostalgic excitement among the party faithful about what a Labour government might mean, as in this video of Angela Rayner with Gordon Brown, discussing what Sure Start meant for her and her son and how Labour could help children in a similar position today. It is perhaps a little confusing that Labour is arguing that their victory is not inevitable at the same time as making the case that a huge win would not be a “supermajority”, but a “strong mandate for change”. But at least it’s broadly on topic. Lib Dems When Ed Davey went bungee jumping, he encouraged voters to “do something you’ve never done before, vote Lib Dem” – and while that felt like a slogan being fitted to the stunt rather than the other way around, it certainly achieved the fabled cut-through. In theory, the Lib Dems are also talking about the NHS and social care, but what they’re really talking about is cuddly Ed Davey doing funny things and not being a threat to liberal Tories. It seems to be working out OK for them so far. I continue to compile a list of things he might do on Thursday. Reform And they were doing so well! The message that worked well for Reform was: the Tories are dying, and we will be the only real voice of opposition from the right to a dominant Labour government. The message that works less well is: the war in Ukraine is Nato’s fault, one of the bigots in our party was a paid actor and maybe Channel 4 were behind it and we’re reporting them to the Electoral Commission, the candidates leaving the party in horror were “Trojan horse” plants by the Tories, the Question Time audience were unfairly biased, and also you should still vote for the people we’ve kicked out. Once scrutiny started to be applied to the party’s candidate list, it was inevitable that that early clarity would dissipate a bit. But Farage and his advisers have made it worse: instead of steering the conversation back to the territory where they were making progress, they have got bogged down in eccentric rows that seem likely to make at least some wavering Tories think of David Cameron’s warning that Ukip were a bunch of “fruitcakes and loonies and closet racists” and step back from the brink. Now stalling in the polls, unsurprisingly. Greens The message is pretty clear: Labour does not mean real change, the contest is tighter than they are telling you in our target seats, and we can put pressure on them from the left. Seems to be working. SNP The message is pretty clear: Labour does not mean real change, the contest is tighter than they are telling you in Scotland, and we can put pressure on them from the left. Seems not to be working. What’s at stake
For the last piece in the Path to Power series, Hannah Al-Othman reports from Nottingham, where she finds many young voters with limited faith in government’s ability to change their lives. Nottingham is one of the UK’s youngest cities, with a median age of 31. “There is widespread dissatisfaction here with the government and a real appetite for change,” Hannah writes. “But young voters are less clear on what that change should look like”. At a Gaza protest encampment on Nottingham university’s campus, students are thoroughly disillusioned: They are angry at the government’s position and disappointed with Labour’s response. Most have little faith in parliamentary politics as a vehicle for change, instead believing that protest – such as their recent action picketing a conference on campus – is more effective. “I won’t be voting, I’ll be spoiling my ballot this election,” says one 19-year-old protester, who gives her name only as Elizabeth. “I’m upset and disappointed that this is the only option I have. It’s the first election I’m old enough to vote in. In the Sneinton Market area, voters are similarly uninspired: “I definitely don’t want the current government,” says Charlie Dean, 27, who runs the Watered Garden, which sells houseplants beloved by millennials and gen Z. “This is my first year as a business owner. The cost of everything is rising and customers aren’t spending as much money.” Brexit has had an impact, as many of her plants are imported from the Netherlands. She normally votes Labour but feels “a bit let down by Labour as well at the moment”. She isn’t a fan of Keir Starmer and doesn’t agree with his party’s position on Gaza. She is considering going Green, “but everyone jokes about how that’s a wasted vote”… Juliette Picton, 22, says she will vote and, like many young people here, is deciding between Labour and Green. “I care about the environment, and social issues,” she says. “It’s pretty much a Labour vote anyway, so [voting] Green wouldn’t affect the outcome.” Winner of the day Carla Denyer, the Green party co-leader, after a poll suggested she could be on course to take the newly formed constituency of Bristol Central from potential Labour cabinet minister Thangam Debbonaire. Recent polls have also shown Green leads in target seats of Waveney Valley and North Herefordshire. Loser of the day Nigel Farage and Reform’s TikTok accounts, which turns out to have high proportions of potentially fake followers: the party’s main account has 27% that are fake or suspicious, the Times reported, while Farage has 23%. The main Labour and Conservative accounts both have less than 4%. Most optimistic voters of the day Labour, Conservative, Reform, Liberal Democrat, and Green supporters, who all think that their own party will do significantly better than the polls suggest, according to research by More in Common. Particularly hopeful are the Conservatives, who are anticipating a defeat by a narrow margin of three points, and Labour, who think they’re going to win by 30%. Quote of the day I’ll go the other way, thanks. Voter at a near-empty Morrisons supermarket in Witney when asked if he wanted to see Rishi Sunak, who was there on a campaign visit Number of the day *** 90 The number of constituencies where concerns have been raised with the Royal Mail about ballots for postal votes failing to arrive, according to the Telegraph. Dubious photo opportunity of the day
Now he’s been taught how to use a contactless card, he’s just going hog wild at the services any opportunity he gets, isn’t he? Read more William Davies on how the Conservative dream of a free market in higher education pushed universities to the brink of disaster Jim Waterson uses the case study of Starmer’s comments on deportations to Bangladesh to explain the “WhatsApp election” Rowena Mason reports on how big financial backers are coming back to Labour – and the risks that come with wealthy new donors Listen to this
Today in Focus | The enigma of Keir Starmer By the end of the week, Keir Starmer could be the UK’s next prime minister. Why do voters feel they don’t know him? Michael Safi hears from Tom Baldwin and Zoe Williams What’s on the grid Tomorrow | Final day of campaigning. Tomorrow | Savanta releases final pre-election poll.