Anas Sarwar, the Scottish Labour leader, had used the word “earthquake” last week to foreshadow Labour’s remarkable victory in Rutherglen and Hamilton West, where its winning margin of 30 percentage points exceeded even its predictions. He did it cheekily, stealing one of the favourite lines often used by the former Scottish National party leader Alex Salmond when the nationalists were crushing Labour at repeated elections in the past. That theft of Salmond’s phrase has additional resonance. It points to a change in Scottish political alignments that spells danger for the SNP and its current leader, Humza Yousaf. Labour won with a crushing 58.6% vote share by shifting itself rightwards, moving much closer to the political centre in Scotland. That positioning was key to Salmond’s victories in the run-up to 2014, when he won and held power by freezing council taxes and small business rates, and introducing free university tuition.
This time, Labour attacked the SNP for allowing councils to raise council tax rates, for a congestion charge mooted by SNP councillors to enter neighbouring Glasgow (ignoring the implicit rejection of Labour’s support for London’s congestion charge), and for suggestions income tax might go up again. It attacked Yousaf’s government, shackled with 16 years of incumbency and mounting crises in public services. It campaigned very much in the mould set by Keir Starmer’s middle-ground strategy, repudiating the party’s own recent support for targeted tax rises, pulling in Tory and Liberal Democrat voters, too, and those who in previous years backed the SNP. Those are the “suburban strivers” who often live in Scotland’s urban new towns and 16 years ago switched to the SNP under Salmond. They became a target demographic for Labour. The Conservative share of the vote fell by 11.1 percentage points and the Lib Dems by 2.3. Both lost their deposits. This was evidence of tactical voting to reject the incumbent government, typical in byelections. It was also perhaps revenge against Margaret Ferrier, the former SNP MP whose decision in 2020 to travel by train to London and to visit shops in the seat while suspecting she was ill with Covid triggered this contest.
However, this result reinforces analysis by the Scottish Election Study that Labour’s reputation in Scotland has changed. It is now, in essence, the least disliked party; it attracts voters from the other major parties in a way it failed to do a decade ago. Key, too, was Labour’s desire to win. Its byelection campaign in effect began on 30 March when MPs recommended Ferrier serve a 30-day suspension. When her appeal was eventually dismissed, that suspension triggered the first recall petition in a Scottish Westminster seat. Since then, UK Labour had invested heavily in resources and expertise for this contest. It turbo-charged the recall petition, delivering leaflets and door-knocking, while pump-priming its byelection campaign. It visited 80,000 homes and spoke to 30,000 voters; Michael Shanks, its winning candidate, claims to have spoken to 20,000 voters. That exposed the SNP’s greatest problem: it is in dire financial straits, scrabbling for money and with the least experienced party leadership in Scotland. Some weeks ago, unable to muster enough activists, it had to hire a courier firm to deliver campaign leaflets. A result of this magnitude has greatly boosted Labour’s hopes it can retake dozens of other Scottish seats – but even so, it is unlikely to assume it can repeat a 20-point swing across Scotland in the general election. Rutherglen and Hamilton West has long been a Labour-SNP marginal and in a seat traditionally known for high turnouts, only 37.2% of voters came out. There was bad weather on Thursday, certainly, but there was also voter apathy and antagonism towards mainstream politics, driven by Conservative turmoil at a UK level, the cost of living crisis and the open divisions within the SNP. Many SNP sympathisers stayed at home – a point that poses further challenges for Yousaf. This result will be used by increasingly vocal internal critics to confirm their claims he is insubstantial and too centre-left to protect their seats and the SNP’s dominance. He does not have the authority or the power of Salmond and Nicola Sturgeon, and has been unable to enforce discipline among SNP backbenchers. Rebellions over the Holyrood alliance with the Scottish Greens brokered by Sturgeon are gathering strength. Many are rallying around Yousaf’s leadership rival Kate Forbes, his most likely successor.
The scale and manner of Labour’s victory in Rutherglen and Hamilton West could well increase the fears of SNP MPs in other vulnerable central belt seats that they face defeat while Yousaf remains in charge. That suggests his first SNP national conference as party leader, due to start in nine days’ time in Aberdeen, will be tense and rebellious. In contrast, Starmer will be delighted as he goes into Labour’s annual conference in Liverpool on Sunday. Shanks, the party’s newest MP, will be paraded on the main stage to rapturous applause from delegates.