East Belfast’s streetscape resembles a historical tapestry. Murals commemorate the Titanic, first world war battles and loyalist paramilitaries – faded eras of building ships, fighting Germans and striking back at the IRA and Catholics during the Troubles. The impression is of a constituency held in aspic, a timeless bastion of working-class unionism, but this is deceptive. The giant yellow cranes of Harland & Wolff still dominate the skyline but the shipyard’s glory days are long gone. Neighbourhoods that relied on traditional industries have decayed while other areas have gentrified amid a burgeoning population of tech workers and other well-paid professionals who do not paint their kerbstones red, white and blue. This has reshaped the constituency’s political faultlines and produced an election fought on two levels. It is a contest between unionists and the non-aligned group known as “neithers” – neither nationalist nor unionist – over Northern Ireland’s constitutional future, and simultaneously a forum on ways to tackle poverty, crumbling public services, crime, immigration and the climate crisis.
“The cost of living crisis, that’s number one,” said Brian Anderson, a Methodist minister who runs the East Belfast Mission, a hub of volunteer groups on the lower Newtownards Road. “We’re giving out 40 packages of food every day. People also need help with gas and electricity bills.” The constituency has a high proportion of old people and single-parent families who face some of the UK’s longest hospital waiting times. Whoever represents the constituency at Westminster must lobby to scrap the two-child benefit cap, said Anderson. “You wouldn’t say to a child, ‘you’re the third child, you can’t see the doctor’, but that’s what people are facing. People need more money and to be encouraged back to work. They need a bit of hope.”
Yet, when voters cast ballots, a perceived need to shore up the union with the UK, or to settle scores within unionism, may trump bread and butter issues, said the minister. “This is an extremely important election for unionism.” The constituency battle pits Gavin Robinson, leader of the Democratic Unionist party (DUP), against Naomi Long, leader of the centrist, cross-community Alliance. She wrested the seat from the DUP in 2010 in a dramatic upset, then narrowly lost to Robinson in subsequent elections. Sinn Féin is not competing here and the Social Democratic and Labour party (SDLP), the Ulster Unionists and the Greens are not expected to intrude much into what is effectively a two-horse race between Robinson and Long. Observers say their rematch is on a knife-edge. Victory for Long, who is justice minister in the Stormont executive, would turbo-charge Alliance as a vehicle for voters fed up with green/orange sectarianism. The party does not take a position on Irish unity and says its focus is making Northern Ireland work. Defeat for Robinson would decapitate the DUP and upend a party still numbed by the downfall of Sir Jefferey Donaldson, who resigned as leader in March after being charged with rape and other sexual offences. He is stepping down as an MP for Lagan Valley but a court hearing scheduled for 3 July – election eve – will keep the case in the headlines. If the DUP lose here, or any other seat, Sinn Féin may emerge as Northern Ireland’s biggest Westminster party, albeit abstentionist, bolstering its calls for a referendum on Irish unity. Catholics now outnumber Protestants and Sinn Féin is the largest party at local and assembly level. All this makes East Belfast a fraught, high-stakes battleground for the DUP.
At the Larder, a community food hub at Belmont Road, some DUP supporters grumbled that the party bungled Brexit and bequeathed a border in the Irish Sea. Others groaned at the mention of Donaldson. All lamented the cost of living. “Food poverty – that’s the biggest issue. It shouldn’t be happening in Northern Ireland,” said Colleen Roy, 65, a retired bank worker. Others around her table, sipping from mugs that said “it’s OK to be not OK”, nodded. The Larder is run from a former church where Long was baptised but that cut no ice with Roy. Robinson is a responsive constituency MP and Roy has no desire to edge towards Dublin rule, she said. “Alliance are moving towards a united Ireland and that’s not what I want. I’m British, Protestant and unionist.”
Mark Magee, 56, a retired window cleaner, said he too would back Robinson. For all the DUP’s faults – he cursed it during a two-year boycott of power-sharing that paralysed Stormont – it helps to secure the union, said Magee. “I’ve voted DUP all my life and will do so again.” Robinson faces a challenge not just from Alliance but also from John Ross of the Traditional Unionist Voice, a small, hardline rival that wants the sea border completely removed. The more disillusioned DUP supporters defect, the better Long’s chance of winning.
At the site of a loyalist bonfire near Foxglove Street – it will be lit on 12 July to celebrate the 1690 Battle of the Boyne – Jamie Graham, 21, a car valet, said he would vote to safeguard British identity. “If a united Ireland comes in, our bands and bonfires, our culture, will be away. And there’ll be 10 times more immigrants.” Such sentiments ebb as you travel up the Newtownards Road towards Ballyhackamore where houses are bigger and accents posher. “I’m voting for Alliance because I’ve had it with Sinn Féin and the DUP arguing and hating each other,” said Linda, 68, who withheld her surname. She accused the two parties, who rule Stormont with Alliance and the Ulster Unionists, of fiscal incontinence. “It’s like a welfare country.”
Patrick McEvoy, 18, a first-time voter, said he wanted a less segregated society. “My mum is Protestant, my dad is Catholic, and they support Alliance, and I will too. I want Northern Ireland to be a good place to bring up kids.” Public support for integrated education has risen to 69% but only 8% of students attend integrated schools. A callout to Guardian readers in the constituency elicited varied responses from mostly Alliance-leaning voters. For Stephen Tymms, a 62-year-old software engineer, the election is a chance to break the Sinn Féin/DUP “duopoly” and to address local issues such as public transport and the policing of paramilitaries. On 15 June more than 1,000 men paraded on the Newtownards Road in a UVF show of strength. Tymms also wanted proactive preparatory work on potential unification “to avoid the huge mistakes shown by Brexit”.
Chris, a senior civil servant, said the UK’s departure from the EU – despite most in Northern Ireland voting to remain – had converted him to a united Ireland. “The UK has become a small-minded, corrupt embarrassment with a streak of nastiness that I want nothing to be associated with.” Robinson was a decent constituency MP but tainted by his party, said Chris. “The DUP are pretty much the antithesis of all I value.” For all the polarisation, there are efforts to bridge the divide. At the Larder’s grocery shop, wealthier -members willingly pay full price to subsidise others who pay a small fraction, and both groups mingle at the cafe. “It’s not just about nutrition, it’s about sharing and spending time together,” said Louise Ferguson, the hub’s manager. Mark McCleary, a full-price member, agreed. “It’s been brilliant, the people you meet in here. This gives space for the two sides to meet.”